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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیU.S. cross-border flow data pointed to a big slowdown in foreign demand in December. TIC net long-term transactions came in at +$28.0B, down sharply from +$206.6B previously. Overall net capital flow also cooled to +$44.90B (from +$204.40B). Notably, foreign buying of U.S. Treasuries (T-bonds) flipped to -$41.60B from +$78.20B, signaling a swing toward net selling.
Market lens: Softer foreign inflows can matter at the margin for USD and term premia—especially alongside heavy Treasury supply.
U.S. activity data sent a mostly strong signal. The weekly Redbook retail gauge accelerated to 7.2% YoY (from 6.5%), pointing to firm consumer demand. Industrial data also beat expectations: Industrial Production rose 0.7% MoM in January (vs 0.4% expected; prior 0.2%) and Manufacturing Production rose 0.6% MoM (vs 0.4% expected; prior 0.0%). Annual industrial output printed 2.28% YoY (prior 1.30%).
The one soft spot was utilization: Capacity Utilization came in at 76.2%, below 76.6% expected (prior 75.7%). Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) estimate nudged down to 3.6% from 3.7%.
Market lens: Strong production and retail momentum can keep “higher-for-longer” rate pricing in play, even as GDPNow signals only a modest cooling from recent estimates.
U.S. durable goods data for December showed a soft headline but firmer underlying demand, especially outside volatile categories. Durable Goods Orders (MoM) fell -1.4% (better than -1.8% expected, but a sharp reversal from +5.4% prior).
Under the hood, the “core” measures strengthened:
Market lens: The headline drop likely reflects volatility (transport/large-ticket categories), while the strong core and capex proxy suggest business demand remains more resilient than the top line implies—supportive for a “steady growth” narrative if confirmed by ISM and capex spending.
U.S. housing construction accelerated at year-end, with Housing Starts (Dec) rising to 1.404M, beating 1.310M expectations and up from 1.272M prior. Starts also posted a strong +6.2% MoM in December (prior -4.2%), signaling a firmer building pulse despite tight financing conditions.
Forward-looking activity improved as well: Building Permits (Dec) increased to 1.448M, above 1.400M expected and up from 1.388M previously suggesting builders are keeping pipelines active.
Market lens: Stronger starts and permits point to housing resilience, but sustainability will hinge on mortgage rates and affordability.
U.S. mortgage data showed a mixed read: the MBA 30-year mortgage rate edged down to 6.17% (from 6.21%), helping total mortgage applications rise +2.8% WoW (from -0.3%). The pickup was led by refinancing: Refinance Index 1,375.9 (from 1,284.6), while purchase demand softened with the Purchase Index at 157.1 (from 161.5). The broader Mortgage Market Index rose to 339.0 (from 329.9).
Market lens: Lower rates are reactivating refi faster than new purchase demand—consistent with affordability still constraining buyers.
A key labor-market composite improved, with the CB Employment Trends Index rising to 105.06 in January from 104.51, suggesting hiring conditions remain resilient.
Market lens: A firmer labor signal can keep the “higher for longer” rate narrative alive—especially if confirmed by payrolls and wage data.
U.S. homebuilder sentiment weakened in February, with the NAHB Housing Market Index falling to 36 (vs 38 expected; prior 37), highlighting ongoing affordability and financing headwinds.
Market lens: A weaker NAHB print can foreshadow slower housing activity, a key sensitivity point for growth as rates stay restrictive.
U.S. short-end rates were stable, with the 3-month bill auction stopping at 3.600% and the 6-month bill auction at 3.500%, both unchanged, pointing to steady near-term funding expectations.
Market lens: Little movement at the front end suggests markets are not repricing the immediate Fed path aggressively off this auction.
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 7.10 for February, above 6.40 expected, though slightly below the prior 7.70.
Market lens: The print supports a “still-expanding” regional manufacturing tone, but the softer step-down versus last month keeps the broader trend dependent on national ISM/PMI follow-through.
A weekly read on ADP employment showed a modest improvement, rising to +10.30K from +7.80K previously—suggesting slightly firmer near-term hiring momentum on this specific tracker.
The U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense on February 15 transported a small nuclear reactor by cargo aircraft from California to Utah for the first time, aiming to demonstrate how nuclear power could be rapidly deployed for military and civilian use.
The agencies partnered with California-based Valar Atomics to fly one of the company’s Ward microreactors on a C-17 to Hill Air Force Base in Utah. The reactor was transported without nuclear fuel, alongside its components, as part of a proof-of-concept for faster deployment and on-site power resilience. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Under Secretary of Defense Michael Duffey joined the flight and described the demonstration as a breakthrough for U.S. nuclear energy and military logistics.
Spain’s January inflation data came in cooler than expected, with headline measures undershooting forecasts and monthly prices falling, while core inflation held steady.
Market takeaway:
Headline disinflation is progressing, but core at 2.6% suggests underlying pressure is stable, not collapsing. The sharp negative MoM print likely reflects seasonal/energy effects, but it still supports the broader cooling trend.
EUR / ECB angle:
A softer Spain print is mildly dovish for the ECB narrative, reinforcing the disinflation path. EUR impact is usually limited unless similar softness shows up across the Eurozone aggregate CPI.