EconoTicker

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model kept its Q1 2026 growth estimate at 2.7%, suggesting the U.S. economy is still tracking moderate expansion. At the same time, the Dallas Fed’s trimmed-mean PCE release for January showed underlying inflation remained above target, reinforcing the view that disinflation is still incomplete even if growth has not rolled over.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, GDPNow; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Trimmed Mean PCE.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary March survey showed a mixed U.S. consumer picture. Consumer sentiment rose to 55.5, above the market expectation, while current conditions improved to 57.8. But consumer expectations slipped to 54.1, showing households still look cautious about the road ahead. On inflation, 1-year expectations held at 3.4%, while 5-year expectations eased to 3.2% from 3.3%. The survey also said gasoline prices and the Iran conflict weighed on attitudes later in the interview period.

Source: University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers.

U.S. durable goods orders were flat in January at $321.2 billion, missing the 1.1% expected rebound after a 0.9% decline in December. Under the surface, the picture was firmer: orders excluding transportation rose 0.4%, orders excluding defense increased 0.5%, and nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a key proxy for business equipment demand — were unchanged. The Census Bureau said transportation equipment was the main drag on the headline figure.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders.

U.S. January PCE inflation came in broadly in line with expectations, with the headline index up 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, while core PCE rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year. At the same time, personal spending increased 0.4%, personal income rose 0.4%, and real personal consumption advanced 0.1%. The mix suggests consumer demand remained resilient, but underlying inflation pressure stayed sticky enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

The second estimate of U.S. Q4 2025 GDP showed the economy expanded at just 0.7% annualized, sharply below the 1.4% prior estimate and far slower than 4.4% in Q3. The softer picture was also visible in real final sales, which slowed to 0.4% from 4.5%, while real consumer spending eased to 2.0% from 3.5%. On inflation, the GDP price index was revised up to 3.8%, while core PCE held at 2.7% and headline PCE prices came in at 2.9%. The overall message is that U.S. growth lost substantial momentum in late 2025, while price pressures stayed firm enough to keep the disinflation story incomplete.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

The University of Michigan’s preliminary March survey showed a mixed but slightly better inflation picture. Consumer sentiment came in at 55.5, above the 55.0 expectation, while current conditions rose to 57.8 and expectations softened to 54.1. On inflation, 1-year expectations held at 3.4% and 5-year expectations eased to 3.2% from 3.3%, suggesting long-run inflation worries cooled a little even as overall sentiment remained soft.

Source: University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for U.S. Q1 2026 growth rose to 2.7% from 2.1%, pointing to a firmer near-term growth picture. The update suggests incoming data has improved the nowcast for the U.S. economy at the start of the year.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, GDPNow.

U.S. housing data sent a mixed but active signal for January. Housing starts climbed 7.2% month-on-month to an annualized 1.487 million units, beating the 1.340 million expectation in your data, while building permits fell 5.4% to 1.376 million, below the revised 1.455 million pace in December. The release suggests builders started more projects, but the pipeline of future authorizations softened.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; HUD.

The U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit narrowed to $54.5 billion in January, down from $72.9 billion in December. Exports rose to $302.1 billion, while imports eased to $356.6 billion, pointing to a much smaller external gap at the start of the year. The official release said the improvement reflected a smaller goods deficit and a larger services surplus.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U.S. labor-market signals stayed firm in the latest weekly update. Initial jobless claims fell to 213K, below the 214K consensus and down from 214K previously. Continuing claims came in at 1.850 million, matching expectations and improving from 1.871 million, while the 4-week moving average dropped to 212.0K from 216.0K. The overall picture suggests layoffs remain contained and the labor market is still holding up.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.

The U.S. federal budget balance showed a $308.0 billion deficit in February, slightly wider than the $304.4 billion consensus and far larger than the $95.0 billion shortfall a year earlier. Reuters reported that the Treasury said February receipts were $313 billion and outlays were $621 billion, both records for the month, keeping the fiscal gap deeply negative.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement.

The latest U.S. 10-year note auction cleared at a 4.217% high yield, above the 4.177% previous result, indicating investors demanded a somewhat higher return to absorb the new issue. The result points to firmer long-end funding costs and softer demand than in the prior auction.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury / TreasuryDirect.