EconoTicker

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 was revised down to 2.1% from 3.0%, indicating the model’s real-time growth tracking has cooled meaningfully versus the prior update.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (GDPNow)

U.S. retail inventories ex-auto (Dec) rose +0.4% (vs +0.2% expected; prior +0.2%), while business inventories (Dec, m/m) increased +0.1% (in line with expectations; prior 0.0%). The data suggest a modest inventory build that can provide a small support to near-term GDP arithmetic, depending on final sales.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. retail sales (Jan, m/m) fell -0.2% (vs -0.3% expected; 0.0% prior). Core retail sales came in 0.0% (vs +0.1% expected; 0.0% prior). But the key retail control group rose +0.3% (vs +0.2% expected; 0.0% prior), and retail sales ex-gas/autos increased +0.3% (vs 0.0% expected; +0.1% prior). Retail sales y/y printed 3.16% (prior 2.43%).

Market read-through: Despite a softer headline, the control group strength suggests consumption momentum into GDP tracking may be more resilient than the top line implies.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) fell -92K (vs +58K expected; +126K prior), with Private Payrolls at -86K (vs +65K expected; +146K prior). The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% (vs 4.3% expected; 4.3% prior), while wages stayed firm: average hourly earnings +0.4% m/m (vs 0.3% expected) and +3.8% y/y (vs 3.7% expected). The participation rate dipped to 62.0% (prior 62.1%) and U-6 improved to 7.9% (prior 8.1%), with average weekly hours unchanged at 34.3.

Market read-through: This is a growth-negative headline with sticky wage pressure, a mix that can keep the rates debate complicated.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

The Fed’s balance sheet edged up to $6.629T from $6.614T, while reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks rose to $3.014T from $3.004T. The move signals a modest increase in system liquidity versus the prior week.

Source: Federal Reserve (H.4.1)

The U.S. Treasury’s latest bill auctions showed a small uptick at the very front end. The 4-week T-bill cleared at 3.640%, up from 3.625% previously, while the 8-week T-bill held steady at 3.630% (unchanged). The results point to slightly firmer short-term funding costs, with demand still broadly stable.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

U.S. natural gas storage fell by 132B, a larger draw than the 122B expected and far deeper than the prior 52B decline. The sharper-than-forecast withdrawal points to tighter short-term supply conditions and a stronger seasonal pull on inventories.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

U.S. import prices (Jan, m/m) rose 0.2%, slightly below the 0.3% expected and unchanged from the prior 0.2%. Export prices increased 0.6% m/m, beating the 0.3% forecast and matching the prior 0.6%. On an annual basis, export prices slowed to 2.6% from 3.1%, while import prices slipped to -0.1% from 0.0%. The message is mixed: export pricing stayed firm, but imported inflation remained muted.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

U.S. nonfarm productivity (Q4) rose 2.8%, beating the 1.9% forecast, although it slowed from the prior 5.2%. At the same time, unit labor costs climbed 2.8%, above the 2.0% expected and sharply up from -1.8% previously. The mix suggests productivity is still expanding, but labor-cost pressure has firmed again, keeping wage-driven inflation concerns alive.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 213K (vs 215K expected; 213K prior), showing layoffs remain contained. But continuing claims rose to 1,868K (vs 1,850K expected; 1,822K prior), suggesting unemployed workers may be taking longer to find new jobs. The 4-week average fell to 215.75K from 220.50K, keeping the broader claims trend relatively stable.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

U.S. Challenger job cuts fell to 48.307K in February from 108.435K previously, while the year-on-year change dropped to -71.9% after a prior +117.8%. The data point to a sharp slowdown in announced layoffs, offering a more stable signal for the labor market at the margin.

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas

U.S. all car sales (Feb) rose to 2.68M (prior 2.60M). All truck sales were 13.07M, up from 12.22M previously—keeping light-truck demand strong and reinforcing the pickup in the broader vehicle sales mix.

Source: BEA / Wards