EconoTicker

The latest details from the U.S. manufacturing report showed that core business demand remained resilient even as broader factory momentum stayed moderate. Durable goods orders excluding transportation increased 0.4% in January, unchanged from the previous reading, while durables excluding defense also rose 0.5%, matching the prior month. These figures suggest that the underlying parts of business investment demand remained stable. Still, with factory orders excluding transportation slowing to 0.4% from 0.6%, the message is that core demand is holding, but not broadening decisively across the manufacturing sector.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. manufacturing data for January showed a modest improvement in headline demand, with factory orders rising 0.1% month-on-month, matching expectations and recovering from the previous 0.4% decline. The data suggests that overall order activity stabilized after last month’s drop. But the underlying picture was more mixed. Factory orders excluding transportation rose 0.4%, softer than the previous 0.6%, pointing to some loss of momentum beneath the headline. At the same time, durable goods excluding transportation held at 0.4%, while durables excluding defense stayed firm at 0.5%. Overall, the report suggests U.S. factory demand is no longer contracting, but core manufacturing momentum is improving only gradually rather than accelerating sharply.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. producer-price data for February came in hotter than expected, signaling that upstream inflation pressure is still building. Headline PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month, well above the 0.3% forecast and higher than the previous 0.5% increase. On an annual basis, PPI accelerated to 3.4%, beating expectations of 2.9% and rising from 2.9% previously.

Underlying details were also firm. Core PPI increased 0.5% month-on-month, above the 0.3% forecast, while core PPI year-on-year jumped to 3.9% from 3.5%, also above the 3.7% expectation. Meanwhile, PPI excluding food, energy, and transport rose to 3.5% year-on-year from 3.4%, with the monthly reading at 0.5%. The overall message is that pipeline inflation remains sticky, which could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to turn more dovish in the near term.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The latest MBA mortgage data showed a clear cooling in U.S. mortgage activity. The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.30% from 6.19%, while mortgage applications fell 10.9% week-on-week after a 3.2% increase the previous week. The broader Mortgage Market Index dropped to 347.1 from 389.6, and the Refinance Index fell sharply to 1,341.0 from 1,646.3. The only modestly positive signal came from the Purchase Index, which edged up to 172.9 from 171.3. Overall, the data suggest that higher mortgage rates quickly hit refinancing and broader loan demand, even as home-purchase activity showed slight resilience.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

The latest U.S. debt auctions showed firmer yields across both short and long maturities. The 52-week bill auction cleared at 3.485%, up from 3.390%, while the 20-year bond auction rose more sharply to 4.817% from 4.664%. The move suggests investors demanded higher compensation to hold U.S. government debt, especially at the long end. Overall, the results point to tighter funding conditions and persistent pressure on Treasury borrowing costs.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

The U.S. housing market delivered a positive surprise, with pending home sales rising 1.8% month-on-month, beating the -0.6% expectation and improving from the previous -1.0% decline. At the same time, the Pending Home Sales Index rose to 72.1 from 70.8. The data suggests housing demand improved meaningfully, offering a stronger signal from the contract-signing side of the market after earlier weakness.

Source: National Association of Realtors

The latest Redbook retail sales reading showed 6.4% year-on-year growth, slightly up from 6.2% previously. The data points to a modest improvement in consumer spending momentum, suggesting retailers continue to see solid year-on-year demand. While the change is not dramatic, it indicates the consumer side of the economy is still holding up.

Source: Redbook Research

The latest ADP weekly employment change showed a gain of 9.0K, down from 15.5K previously. The slowdown suggests labor-market momentum remains positive, but hiring growth has lost some speed. While the reading still points to job creation, it also signals a cooler pace in private-sector employment compared with the prior update.

Source: ADP

U.S. short-term government borrowing costs remained firm in the latest Treasury auctions. The 3-month bill yield rose slightly to 3.610% from 3.605%, while the 6-month bill yield increased to 3.570% from 3.535%. The move signals that front-end rates are still elevated and that money-market conditions remain tight. In broader terms, the auction results suggest the market still sees little room for a sharp easing in short-term funding costs.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury

U.S. housing sentiment improved slightly in March, with the NAHB Housing Market Index rising to 38 from 37, coming in just above the market expectation of 37. While the increase points to somewhat better conditions for homebuilders compared with the previous month, the index still remains at a relatively low level, showing that the broader housing environment is still weak. The data suggests the sector may be stabilizing, but confidence has not yet returned in a meaningful way.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

U.S. industrial data delivered a mixed signal. Industrial production rose 0.2% MoM in February, beating the 0.1% forecast, although slowing from 0.7% previously. Manufacturing production also increased 0.2%, above expectations of 0.1%, but down from the prior 0.8% pace. Capacity utilization came in at 76.3%, slightly above the 76.2% forecast and unchanged from the previous reading. On a yearly basis, however, industrial production growth slowed to 1.44% from 2.33%, showing that the broader factory trend has lost some momentum. That softer tone was reinforced by the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, which fell to -0.20 in March from 7.10, missing the 4.00 forecast and slipping back into contraction territory. The message is that national output is still expanding, but underlying manufacturing sentiment is becoming less convincing.

Source: Federal Reserve; Federal Reserve Bank of New York

The Pentagon has identified the six U.S. Air Force personnel killed in the March 12 crash of a KC-135 aerial refueling tanker over western Iraq. According to the U.S. military, the aircraft was supporting U.S. operations against Iran when it went down in friendly airspace. The military has said the crash involved another aircraft, but it was not caused by hostile fire or friendly fire, and the investigation is still ongoing.

The dead were named as Maj. John A. Klinner, Capt. Ariana G. Savino, Tech. Sgt. Ashley B. Pruitt, Capt. Seth R. Koval, Capt. Curtis J. Angst, and Tech. Sgt. Tyler H. Simmons. The Pentagon said three were assigned to the 6th Air Refueling Wing at MacDill Air Force Base, Florida, and three to the 121st Air Refueling Wing at Rickenbacker Air National Guard Base, Ohio.

Source: Reuters; U.S. Air Force; U.S. Department of Defense.