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The latest U.S. 5-year note auction cleared at a 3.980% high yield, up from 3.615% previously. The result shows investors demanded a higher return to hold intermediate-dated Treasury paper, signaling firmer funding costs in the belly of the curve.

Source: U.S. Treasury / TreasuryDirect — 5-Year Note Auction Results, March 25, 2026.

The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to $190.7 billion in Q4 2025 from $239.1 billion in the prior quarter, marking a clear improvement in the external balance. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the narrowing reflected a shift in primary income from deficit to surplus and a smaller goods deficit.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) — U.S. International Transactions and Investment Position, 4th Quarter and Year 2025.

Fresh U.S. data showed a sharp increase in trade prices in February. Import prices rose 1.3% month on month and 1.3% year on year, while export prices increased 1.5% on the month and 3.5% on the year. The BLS said February’s gain in import prices was the largest monthly increase since March 2022, and export prices posted their largest monthly rise since May 2022, signaling stronger price pressure in traded goods.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, February 2026.

The latest MBA data pointed to another difficult week for U.S. housing finance. Mortgage applications fell 10.5% week on week, while the 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.43% from 6.30%. In the data you shared, the purchase index fell to 163.6 from 172.9, the market index dropped to 310.7 from 347.1, and the refinance index declined to 1,145.0 from 1,341.0, suggesting higher borrowing costs are still weighing on both homebuying and refinancing demand.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) — Weekly Applications Survey.

The U.S. Department of War said it has set up a new framework with BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin to quadruple production of seekers for the THAAD missile defense interceptor, aiming to strengthen missile defense capacity and speed deliveries across the supply chain. The department said the deal is designed to expand industrial capacity beyond the prime contractor level and reinforce what it called America’s missile defense base.

The move follows an earlier agreement with Lockheed Martin to sharply increase overall THAAD interceptor output, showing Washington is now pushing to scale both the missile itself and one of its most critical guidance components. Reuters reported that the announcement came as the Pentagon also unveiled broader efforts to raise output of key munitions and defense systems.

Source: U.S. Department of War; BAE Systems; Reuters.

Regional U.S. data painted a more constructive picture. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improved to 0 in March from -10 in February, indicating factory activity in the Fifth District stabilized. Shipments also improved to -2 from -13. On the services side, the Richmond Fed’s non-manufacturing revenues index rose to 9 from -8, suggesting a noticeable pickup in regional service-sector activity.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond — Fifth District Survey of Manufacturing Activity; Non-Manufacturing Survey.

The latest U.S. flash PMI data showed the private sector still expanding in March, but with a softer overall mix. Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 from 51.6, while Services PMI slipped to 51.1 from 51.7. The Composite PMI eased to 51.4 from 51.9, indicating growth continued but at a slower pace as services cooled. Reuters said this left overall U.S. business activity at an 11-month low.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence — Flash U.S. PMI.

The U.S. consumer signal stayed relatively solid even as labor momentum remained modest. ADP’s weekly NER Pulse showed private employers added an average of 10,000 jobs per week, up from 9,000 previously, while the Redbook same-store sales index accelerated to 6.7% year on year from 6.4%. The message is that consumer demand is still holding up better than hiring.

Source: ADP Research Institute — NER Pulse / ADP National Employment Report preliminary estimate; Redbook Research — Johnson Redbook Index.

Fresh U.S. data showed a less friendly inflation mix for the Federal Reserve. Nonfarm productivity was revised down to 1.8% in Q4, while unit labor costs were revised up to 4.4%. The combination suggests businesses got less output growth per hour while labor-cost pressure intensified, a backdrop that can complicate the case for rate cuts.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — Productivity and Costs, Fourth Quarter 2025, Revised.

The latest U.S. bill auction showed a modest rise in front-end yields, with the 3-month bill stop-out rate at 3.635% and the 6-month bill at 3.630%, both above their previous levels. The move points to slightly firmer short-term funding costs and suggests money-market pricing remains elevated even as investors continue to assess the path of Federal Reserve policy.

Source: U.S. Treasury / TreasuryDirect — Announcements, Data & Results.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for U.S. first-quarter 2026 growth was marked down to 2.0% from 2.3%, signaling slightly softer growth expectations for the quarter. The Atlanta Fed notes that GDPNow is a running model-based estimate rather than an official forecast, but markets watch it closely as a high-frequency gauge of how incoming data are shaping the near-term U.S. growth picture.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta — GDPNow.

Fresh U.S. data painted a softer growth picture. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.11 in February from +0.20 in January, suggesting overall activity lost momentum, while construction spending dropped 0.3% month-on-month in January after a prior increase. Together, the releases suggest that parts of the U.S. economy entered the new year on a weaker footing, with growth still intact but less broad-based than before. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago — Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI); U.S. Census Bureau — Monthly Construction Spending.