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S&P Global’s Composite PMI edged in at 52.8 for June—above the 52.2 forecast but down from May’s 53.0—marking a slower overall expansion. The Manufacturing PMI held at 52.0, matching both the 51.1 estimate and May’s reading, signalling steady factory growth. Services PMI came in at 53.1, above the 52.9 consensus yet below May’s 53.7, indicating a mild softening in service‐sector momentum.

The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index fell 0.1% month-on-month in May (forecast: –0.1%; April: –1.4%), marking a much smaller drop than the prior month and suggesting a plateauing of early economic indicators.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index remained at –4.0 in June (forecast: –1.7; May: –4.0), signaling ongoing contraction. Its Business Conditions gauge plunged to 18.3 (May: 47.2). The CAPEX Index fell to 14.5 (May: 27.0), while the Employment measure swung into negative territory at –9.8 (May: +16.5). New Orders slid to 2.3 (May: 7.5), and the Prices Paid index eased to 41.4 (May: 59.8), suggesting softer input‐cost pressures.

The Federal Reserve’s Q2 projections show the policy rate averaging 3.6% in the first year (previous: 3.4%), 3.4% in the second year (previous: 3.1%), 3.9% for the current year (previous: 3.9%), and 3.0% in the longer run (previous: 3.0%).

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.50% (forecast: 4.50%; prior: 4.50%), maintaining its current monetary policy stance amid ongoing assessments of inflation and economic growth.

Washington—In this week’s Treasury auctions, the 4-week bill yield eased to 4.060% from 4.080%, while the 8-week bill yield climbed to 4.470% from 4.380%.

• 4-Week Bill Auction Yield: 4.060% (prior 4.080%)

• 8-Week Bill Auction Yield: 4.470% (prior 4.380%)

This split movement reflects shifting investor demand for ultra-short maturities amid evolving expectations for Federal Reserve rate policy.

Washington—The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model projects U.S. real GDP growth at 3.4% annualized for Q2, below the 3.5% consensus and unchanged from prior estimates.

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): 3.4% (consensus 3.5%; prior 3.5%)

This modest downgrade suggests the economy is expanding slightly slower than expected, which may factor into upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Washington—Initial jobless claims fell to 245,000 last week, below the 246,000 forecast and down from 250,000, while continuing claims rose to 1,945,000, just above the 1,940,000 expectations but below the prior 1,951,000.

• Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,945K (forecast 1,940K; prior 1,951K)

• Initial Jobless Claims: 245K (forecast 246K; prior 250K)

• Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 245.50K (prior 240.75K)

The drop in new claims points to labor-market resilience, though the uptick in continuing claims suggests some workers remain sidelined, yielding a mixed outlook.

Washington—Housing starts in the U.S. fell to 1.256 million units in May, missing the 1.350 million forecast and down from 1.392 million in April. Month-on-month starts tumbled 9.8% versus an expected 2.7% gain.

• Housing Starts (May): 1.256 M (forecast 1.350 M; April 1.392 M)

• Housing Starts MoM (May): –9.8% (forecast +2.7%)

This sharp decline suggests future homebuilding activity may slow further, potentially weighing on the construction sector and broader economic growth.

Washington—Building permits in the U.S. fell to 1.393 million in May, below the 1.420 million forecast and down from 1.422 million in April. Month-on-month permits declined 2.0%, improving slightly from April’s 4.0% drop.

• Building Permits (May): 1.393 M (forecast 1.420 M; April 1.422 M)

• Building Permits MoM (May): –2.0% (April –4.0%)

This suggests that future construction activity could slow, potentially tempering economic growth and weighing on the housing market.

Washington—Weekly mortgage applications in the U.S. fell 2.6% while the average 30-year rate dipped to 6.84%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

• MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.84% (from 6.93%)

• MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW): –2.6% (from +12.5%)

• MBA Purchase Index: 165.8 (from 170.9)

• Mortgage Market Index: 248.1 (from 254.6)

• Mortgage Refinance Index: 692.4 (from 707.4)

U.S. capacity utilization fell to 77.4% in May (forecast: 77.7%; April: 77.7%), marking the lowest rate since early in the year. Industrial production rose just 0.6% year-on-year in May, down sharply from a 1.43% gain in April, reflecting cooling factory activity. On a monthly basis, industrial output dropped 0.2% in May (forecast: 0.0%; April: +0.1%). Manufacturing production, however, edged up 0.1% month-on-month (forecast: 0.1%; April: –0.5%), snapping a brief contraction.