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New home sales in the U.S. fell sharply by 13.7% MoM in May, dropping to an annualized rate of 623,000 units, well below expectations of 694K and down from April’s 722K. This marks the steepest monthly decline since mid-2022.

The sudden drop reflects mounting affordability pressures, persistent high mortgage rates, and builder hesitancy amid softening buyer demand. Despite recent stabilization in permits and starts, the decline highlights vulnerabilities in the new housing market heading into the summer months.

The number of building permits issued in May came in at 1.394 million, broadly in line with expectations (1.393M) but below April’s 1.422M. On a month-over-month basis, permits declined by 2.0%, following a sharper -4.0% drop the previous month.

The back-to-back declines suggest persistent challenges in the housing sector, including elevated mortgage rates, rising construction costs, and tighter financing conditions — all weighing on homebuilder sentiment and future housing supply.

The latest MBA Mortgage Applications data showed a mixed picture for the U.S. housing market:

• Mortgage Market Index rose to 250.8, up from 248.1
• Refinance Index increased to 713.4, from 692.4, indicating a pickup in refi activity as some homeowners take advantage of slight rate dips
• However, the Purchase Index edged lower to 165.2, from 165.8, suggesting ongoing weakness in homebuying demand amid affordability pressures and high borrowing costs

The data highlights a resilient refinancing segment, but a still-muted purchase market as elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on first-time buyers and sales volume.

The M2 money supply in the United States rose to $21.94 trillion in May, up from $21.86 trillion in April, indicating a modest monthly increase in broad liquidity.

The expansion may reflect resilient credit creation and continued deposit growth, although overall money supply remains well below its 2022 peak, supporting the view that monetary conditions remain relatively tight.

The latest U.S. 2-Year Treasury Note Auction closed at a yield of 3.786%, well below the previous auction’s 3.955%.

The lower yield suggests stronger demand for short-term government debt, possibly reflecting increased risk aversion, shifting rate-cut expectations, or a flight to safety amid global geopolitical tensions.

🕕 Tuesday, 24 June 2025

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improved slightly to -7 in June, from -9 in May and better than expectations of -10, though it remains in contraction territory. The Shipments Index also rose to -3, up from -10, suggesting less severe output declines.

Meanwhile, the Richmond Services Index improved to -4, up from -11, indicating a slower pace of contraction in the regional service sector.

While all indicators remain negative, the less steep declines point to gradual stabilization, particularly in shipments and services.

🕕 Tuesday, 24 June 2025

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 93.0 in June, well below expectations of 99.4 and down from 98.4 in May.

This is the lowest reading since late 2022, reflecting growing consumer pessimism about both the current economic environment and the near-term outlook.

Key concerns include rising job market uncertainty, inflation fatigue, and geopolitical tensions. The decline may weigh on household spending going into the summer months.

🕕 Tuesday, 24 June 2025

The FHFA House Price Index (HPI) declined 0.4% month-over-month in April — the first drop since mid-2023 — missing forecasts of +0.1% % %. The year-over-year growth slowed to 3.0%, down from 3.9% previously.

The index level fell to 434.9, from March’s 436.7.

Meanwhile, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index showed mixed signals:

• Seasonally adjusted (MoM): -0.3% (vs -0.2% expected)
• Non-seasonally adjusted (MoM): +0.8% % (vs +1.1% % prior)
• YoY (NSA): +3.4% %, slightly below expectations and prior reading of 4.0%–4.1%

Overall, the data reflect cooling momentum in U.S. home prices, as higher interest rates weigh on housing demand.

🕕 Tuesday, 24 June 2025

The Redbook Retail Sales Index, a key measure of U.S. chain-store sales, showed a 4.5% year-over-year increase, down from the previous 5.2% reading.

The slowdown in growth suggests some cooling in consumer spending, potentially due to higher interest rates and inflation fatigue, even as the overall retail sector remains resilient.

🕕 Tuesday, 24 June 2025

The U.S. current account deficit widened to $450.2 billion in Q1 2025, worse than expected ($448.0B) and significantly above the Q4 2024 figure of $312.0 billion.

The increase reflects a higher trade imbalance and weaker income flows, reinforcing concerns over the growing external financing needs of the U.S. economy.

This sharp widening may add pressure on the U.S. dollar and factor into discussions over fiscal sustainability and global capital flows.

Three-month Treasury bills were sold at 4.195%, down from 4.240% at the previous auction, while six-month bills fetched 4.120%, below last time’s 4.155%, reflecting strong demand for short-term paper amid a softer rate backdrop.

Existing home sales rose 0.8% month-on-month in May, outperforming forecasts for a 1.3% drop and reversing April’s 0.5% decline. Sales reached an annualized 4.03 million units, above the 3.96 million consensus and up from 4.00 million in April, highlighting renewed strength in the housing market.