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The US Redbook year-on-year retail index rose to 5.2% (previous: 4.7%), signaling a pickup in consumer spending momentum.

In May, the US Export Price Index fell 0.9% month-on-month (forecast: –0.1%; April: +0.1%), marking the biggest drop in six months. On a year-on-year basis, export prices rose 1.7% (forecast: 1.9%). Meanwhile, import prices were flat month-on-month at 0.0% (forecast: –0.2%; April: +0.1%), and up 0.2% year-on-year (forecast: 0.1%), signalling muted inflation in cross-border goods costs.

U.S. retail sales plunged 0.9% month-on-month in May (forecast: –0.5%; April: –0.1%), marking the steepest drop in five months. Core retail sales excluding autos and gasoline contracted 0.3% (forecast: 0.2%; April: 0.0%), while the Fed’s preferred “retail control” series—excluding autos, gas, and building materials—unexpectedly climbed 0.4% (forecast: 0.3%; April: –0.1%). Retail sales excluding gas and autos dipped 0.1% (April: 0.1%). On a year-on-year basis, sales rose 3.29% in May (April: 5.00%), signaling cooling consumer

In June, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surged to 60.5 (forecast: 53.5; May: 52.2), its highest level in months. The Expectations sub-index jumped to 58.4 (forecast: 49.0; May: 47.9), and the Current Conditions gauge rose to 63.7 (forecast: 59.4; May: 58.9). Meanwhile, 1-year inflation expectations eased to 5.1% (forecast: 6.4%; May: 6.6%), and 5-year inflation expectations held at 4.1% (forecast: 4.1%; May: 4.2%).

At 05:45 ET (09:45 GMT), Dow Jones futures plunged 500 points (–1.2%), S&P 500 futures fell 70 points (–1.2%), and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 315 points (–1.4%) after Israel’s large-scale airstrike on Iran stoked geopolitical fears, sent oil prices soaring, and threatened global growth. On Thursday, Wall Street’s main indices closed marginally higher, with the S&P 500 within 2% of its February all-time high. Global stocks have rallied nearly nonstop since early April amid hopes of a less aggressive U.S. tariff policy.

In May, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) edged up 0.1% month-on-month (forecast: 0.2%; April: –0.2%), while headline PPI rose 2.6% year-on-year (forecast: 2.6%; April: 2.5%). Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, gained just 0.1% MoM (forecast: 0.3%; April: –0.2%) and slowed to 3.0% YoY (forecast: 3.1%; April: 3.2%). Excluding food, energy, and transport, PPI rose 0.1% MoM (April: –0.1%) and 2.7% YoY (April: 2.9%), reflecting lingering disinflationary pressures at the producer level.

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 248,000 for the latest week (forecast: 242,000; prior: 248,000), marking a stall after recent declines. The four-week moving average climbed to 240,250 (prior: 235,250), highlighting a modest softening in layoffs. Continuing claims also ticked up to 1.956 million (forecast: 1.910 million; prior: 1.902 million), underscoring lingering labor‐market challenges.

In May, US core CPI rose just 0.1% month-on-month (forecast: 0.3%; April: 0.2%), while core CPI held at 2.8% year-on-year (forecast: 2.9%; April: 2.8%). Headline CPI also increased 0.1% MoM (forecast: 0.2%; April: 0.2%) and 2.4% YoY (forecast: 2.5%; April: 2.3%). The unadjusted CPI index stood at 321.47 (April: 321.73), and the seasonally adjusted index was 320.58 (April: 320.32). Real average earnings jumped 0.3% MoM (April: 0.0%), marking the first rise in several months.

A rise in shelter costs drove much of May’s increase, though this was partly offset by a drop in gasoline prices, which pushed energy costs down by 1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

At the latest auction of U.S. 3-year Treasury notes, the stop-out yield rose to 3.972% (previous: 3.824%), underscoring higher mid-term borrowing costs and softer investor demand.

The US Redbook year-on-year index, an early measure of retail sales trends, eased to 4.7% in the latest reading (previous: 4.9%), signaling a moderation in consumer spending momentum.

Continuing jobless claims in the U.S. edged down to 1.904 million in the latest week (forecast: 1.910 million; prior: 1.907 million), while initial claims rose to 247 thousand (forecast: 236 thousand; prior: 239 thousand). The four-week moving average of initial claims climbed to 235 thousand (prior: 230.5 thousand), highlighting a modest softening in the labor market. In Q1, nonfarm productivity contracted by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter (forecast: –0.8%; Q4: –1.7%), marking a deeper decline than expected. At the same time, unit labor costs spiked by 6.6% QoQ (forecast: 5.7%; Q4: 2.0%), indicating renewed upward pressure on employer wage

U.S. exports in April climbed to $289.40 billion (March: $278.50 billion), while imports declined to $351.00 billion (March: $419.00 billion). As a result, the trade deficit narrowed to $61.60 billion (forecast: $67.60 billion; March: $138.30 billion).