EconoTicker

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 52.0 (expected 52.0, prior 53.0).

Market impact: Neutral for USD, as the sector remains in expansion, but momentum has eased from August’s stronger pace.

Historical context: The index stayed above the 50 threshold for the eighth consecutive month, though growth slowed slightly to a three-month low.

• MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.46% (prior 6.34%).
• MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW): -12.7% (prior +0.6%).
• MBA Purchase Index: 172.7 (prior 174.5).
• Mortgage Market Index: 339.1 (prior 388.3).
• Refinance Index: 1,278.6 (prior 1,609.8).

Market impact: Negative for USD housing outlook; higher mortgage rates sharply reduced applications, signaling weaker housing demand.

Historical context: Mortgage applications fell at the fastest weekly pace in over a year, as refinancing activity slumped to its lowest since early 2023.

• ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep): -32K (expected +52K, prior -3K).

Market impact: Negative for USD, as the unexpected job losses point to a sharp cooling in private sector hiring ahead of Friday’s NFP report.

Historical context: This marks the second consecutive month of ADP job declines, with September posting the weakest reading since early 2020.

• Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Sep): -2.4 (prior +8.6).
• Texas Services Sector Outlook (Sep): -5.6 (prior +6.8).

Market impact: Negative for USD, as the sharp reversal in Texas services signals weakening momentum in one of the largest regional economies.

Historical context: Both revenues and outlook fell into contraction for the first time since early 2024, underscoring fragile sentiment in the service sector.

• JOLTS Job Openings (Aug): 7.227M (expected 7.190M, prior 7.208M).

Market impact: Slightly supportive for USD, as stable job openings highlight ongoing labor market resilience despite signs of cooling elsewhere.

Historical context: Openings remain near their lowest since early 2021 but have steadied in recent months, suggesting a gradual rebalancing of labor demand.

• CB Consumer Confidence (Sep): 94.2 (expected 96.0, prior 97.8).

Market impact: Negative for USD, as declining confidence highlights growing consumer concerns over inflation and economic outlook.

Historical context: Confidence dropped to its lowest level since early 2024, extending a multi-month downtrend from this year’s highs.

• Chicago PMI (Sep): 40.6 (expected 43.4, prior 41.5).

Market impact: Negative for USD, as the deeper contraction signals weakening manufacturing and business activity in the Midwest.

Historical context: The index remains well below the 50 threshold for expansion and is now at its lowest since mid-2024, underscoring persistent industrial weakness.

• FHFA House Price Index (YoY, Jul): +2.3% (prior +2.7%).
• FHFA House Price Index (MoM, Jul): -0.1% (expected -0.2%, prior -0.2%).
• FHFA House Price Index Level (Jul): 433.4 (prior 433.9).
• S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 s.a. (MoM, Jul): -0.1% (prior -0.2%).
• S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 n.s.a. (MoM, Jul): -0.3% (prior 0.0%).
• S&P/CS HPI Composite-20 n.s.a. (YoY, Jul): +1.8% (expected +1.7%, prior +2.2%).

Market impact: Slightly negative for USD, as softening house prices reflect housing market strain from high mortgage rates.

Historical context: Both FHFA and Case-Shiller indices show slowing annual growth, with July marking the weakest pace since early 2024.

• Redbook (YoY): +5.9% (prior +5.7%).

Market impact: Slightly supportive for USD, as stronger same-store sales growth suggests resilient consumer demand.

Historical context: Retail activity continues to expand steadily, with annual growth holding near multi-month highs despite high interest rates.

• Tariffs announced: 10% on softwood lumber, 25% on kitchen cabinets, vanities, and upholstered wooden furniture.
• Effective date & escalation: Tariffs take effect October 14. Rates may rise in January 2026 up to 30-50% depending on the product and country cooperation.

Market impact: This move adds upside risk to U.S. inflation (via higher import costs) and puts pressure on housing, furniture, and building-material sectors. It may also strain U.S. trade relations, especially with major exporters of lumber and furniture.

Historical context: The tariffs are justified under a national security argument (Section 232 authority) — a tool Trump has increasingly used to impose tariffs on goods like steel and aluminum.

• 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.860% (prior 3.860%).
• 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.715% (prior 3.705%).

Market impact: Neutral for USD, as short-term yields remain stable, reflecting steady demand for US government debt.

Historical context: Treasury bill yields continue to hover near multi-year highs, underscoring persistent expectations for elevated interest rates.

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Sep): -8.7 (prior -1.8).

Market impact: Negative for USD, as the deeper contraction highlights persistent weakness in the US manufacturing sector.

Historical context: The index slid to its lowest level since early 2024, underscoring ongoing pressures from high costs and soft demand.