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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیThe Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimated Q3 U.S. economic growth at 3.8%, unchanged from the prior update, signaling consistent strength in underlying activity despite higher interest rates.
Steady projections reflect resilient consumer spending and business investment, offsetting weakness in housing and exports.
Market impact: Neutral to mildly positive for the USD; solid growth expectations support the soft-landing narrative and reduce pressure on the Fed to pivot quickly.
The NY Fed’s 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 3.4% in September, up from 3.2% in August — the first increase in five months.
The uptick suggests that consumers are growing slightly more cautious about price pressures, especially for essentials like food and housing, amid lingering uncertainty over fiscal and energy trends.
Market impact: Mildly hawkish for the USD; rising inflation expectations may keep the Fed on alert and delay market hopes for early rate cuts.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index slipped to 48.3 in October from 49.3 in September, remaining below the neutral 50 mark for the 30th consecutive month.
The decline reflects persistent consumer unease over inflation, interest rates, and political uncertainty, even as labor markets stay resilient.
Market impact: Slightly negative for the USD and overall sentiment; fading optimism could weigh on consumer spending and reinforce expectations for a cautious Fed stance.
The Redbook Index showed retail sales rising 5.8% YoY, just below the prior 5.9%, indicating steady consumer spending momentum despite elevated interest rates and lingering inflation pressures.
The data suggest resilient household demand heading into the holiday season, though spending patterns remain uneven across categories.
Market impact: Neutral for the USD; steady retail activity supports the soft-landing narrative but offers little incentive for near-term Fed tightening.
Yields on U.S. Treasury bills were little changed at the latest auction, signaling steady short-term funding conditions.
The 3-month bill cleared at 3.850% (slightly below 3.860% previously), while the 6-month bill came in at 3.695%, down marginally from 3.715%.
The results suggest investor confidence in near-term rate stability as markets await clearer guidance from the Federal Reserve.
Market impact: Neutral for the USD and short-term Treasuries; steady yields reinforce expectations that the Fed will stay on hold in the coming months.
The ISM survey showed the US services sector losing momentum in September. The Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.0, below expectations of 51.8 and August’s 52.0, signaling a near-stagnation in the country’s largest sector.
Key components revealed weakness:
Market impact: Negative for USD, as the softer PMI highlights weakening momentum in services, though sticky prices may keep Fed hawkish risks alive.
Historical context: September marked the weakest services reading since early 2023, breaking the strong expansion streak that had supported US growth resilience.
The US economy maintained solid growth momentum last month. The S&P Global Composite PMI came in at 53.9, above forecasts of 53.6 though slightly below August’s 54.6. The Services PMI printed 54.2, beating expectations of 53.9 but just shy of the prior 54.5, showing continued resilience in the country’s dominant sector.
Market impact: Positive for USD, as the readings highlight steady business activity despite tighter financial conditions.
Historical context: Both indices remain well above the 50-threshold, marking the 9th straight month of expansion and underlining the US economy’s relative strength compared with other major economies.
The latest Treasury auctions showed a slight dip in short-term borrowing costs. The 4-week bill cleared at 4.060%, down from 4.080%, while the 8-week bill came in at 3.960%, compared with 4.000% previously.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s balance sheet continued its steady decline, slipping to $6.587T from $6.608T. Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks also edged lower to $2.980T from $3.000T, reflecting ongoing quantitative tightening.
Market impact: Neutral for USD; lower bill yields reflect steady demand, while the Fed’s balance sheet contraction underscores its commitment to policy normalization.
Historical context: The Fed’s balance sheet has fallen by more than $1T from its 2022 peak, though reserves remain ample to support system liquidity.
Challenger’s September report showed US employers announced 54,064 job cuts, sharply lower than August’s 85,979. On a yearly basis, layoffs fell 25.8%, reversing a prior trend of rising cuts (+13.3% YoY previously). The figures suggest easing pressure in the labor market despite broader signs of cooling.
Market impact: Supportive for USD, as fewer layoffs point to resilience in employment ahead of Friday’s NFP release.
Historical context: Monthly job cuts hit their lowest since early 2024, offering a counterweight to weaker hiring signals in recent surveys.
Market impact: Supportive for USD, as stronger auto sales signal resilient consumer demand despite high borrowing costs.
Historical context: Sales climbed to their highest level since early 2024, extending a steady recovery in the auto sector.
Market impact: Neutral for USD, as growth expectations remain strong despite the minor downgrade.
Historical context: The forecast continues to point to robust Q3 growth, holding near the 4% mark and well above the economy’s long-term trend.
Market impact: Neutral for USD; headline PMI slightly above prior levels but still in contraction, with weak orders offset by softer price pressures.
Historical context: Manufacturing has remained below the 50 threshold for most of 2024–2025, though the slight improvement in September suggests tentative stabilization.