EconoTicker

• Corporate Profits (QoQ, Q2): +0.2% (vs. -3.3% prior, +2.0% expected)

Market impact: Negative for USD, as profits rose only marginally, missing expectations and pointing to weaker corporate momentum.

Historical context: The near-flat performance followed a sharp contraction in Q1, suggesting that U.S. companies continue to face margin pressures from high costs and slowing demand.

• Durable Goods Orders (MoM, Aug): +2.9% (vs. -0.3% prior, -2.7% expected)
• Durables Ex-Defense (MoM, Aug): +1.9% (vs. -2.3% prior)
• Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM, Aug): +0.4% (vs. -0.1% prior, +1.1% expected)
• Non-Defense Capital Goods ex-Air (MoM, Aug): +0.6% (vs. -0.1% prior, +0.8% expected)

Market impact: Positive for USD, as broad-based gains across core and capital goods point to resilient business investment.

Historical context: August’s rebound was the strongest in over a year, reversing July’s slump, with solid momentum in machinery and transportation underpinning durable goods demand.

• Initial Jobless Claims: 218K (vs. 233K prior, 232K expected)
• 4-Week Average: 237.5K (vs. 240.25K prior)
• Continuing Claims: 1.926M (vs. 1.930M prior, 1.928M expected)

Market impact: Neutral to slightly positive for USD, as claims eased modestly, signaling a still-resilient labor market.

Historical context: Jobless claims remain near historically low levels, underscoring labor market stability despite slower hiring momentum and ongoing economic headwinds.

• 5-Year Note Auction: 3.710% (vs. 3.724% prior)

Market impact: Neutral for USD, as stable yields signal steady investor demand at current interest rate expectations.

Historical context: The auction yield eased marginally from the previous sale, remaining near recent averages as markets await further Fed guidance on rate cuts.

• Building Permits (Aug): 1.33M (vs. 1.312M prior, 1.362M expected)
• Building Permits MoM (Aug): -2.3% (vs. -3.7% prior, -2.2% expected)
• New Home Sales (Aug): 800K (vs. 650K prior, 664K expected)
• New Home Sales MoM (Aug): +20.5% (vs. -1.8% prior)

Market impact: Positive for USD, as the surge in new home sales outweighed weaker building permits, suggesting resilient housing demand despite high mortgage rates.

Historical context: August’s new home sales marked the strongest pace since late 2022, while permits continued to trend lower, pointing to limited future supply.

• MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: 6.34% (vs. 6.39% prior)
• MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW): +0.6% (vs. +29.7% prior)
• MBA Purchase Index: 174.5 (vs. 174.0 prior)
• MBA Market Index: 388.3 (vs. 386.1 prior)
• MBA Refinance Index: 1,609.8 (vs. 1,596.7 prior)

Market impact: Neutral for USD, as mortgage demand edged higher on slightly lower rates, but overall activity remains subdued compared with historical norms.

Historical context: Despite the modest pickup, applications are still far below pre-2022 levels, highlighting the ongoing drag from elevated borrowing costs and housing affordability constraints.

• 2-Year Note Auction: 3.561% (vs. 3.641% prior)
• M2 Money Supply (Aug): $22.20T (vs. $22.12T prior)

Market impact: Mixed for USD, as lower auction yields reflect firm demand for Treasuries, while expanding money supply may ease liquidity conditions.

Historical context: The decline in 2-year yields marks the lowest auction result since early 2024, while M2 growth highlights a reversal from recent stagnation, suggesting improved financial system liquidity.

• Richmond Manufacturing Index (Sep): -17 (vs. -5 prior, -7 expected)
• Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Sep): -20 (vs. -5 prior)
• Richmond Services Index (Sep): 1 (vs. 4 prior)

Market impact: Negative for USD, as manufacturing activity in the Richmond district weakened sharply, with services growth also slowing.

Historical context: September’s reading marked the weakest manufacturing performance since late 2022, reflecting deep declines in shipments and persistent demand challenges across the region.

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 52.0 (vs. 52.2 prior, 53.0 expected)
• S&P Global Services PMI (Sep): 53.9 (vs. 54.0 prior, 54.5 expected)
• S&P Global Composite PMI (Sep): 53.6 (vs. 54.6 prior, 54.6 expected)

Market impact: Slightly negative for USD, as momentum cooled across both manufacturing and services, though activity remains firmly in expansion.

Historical context: September marked the second consecutive month of moderation, with composite activity slipping to its lowest since April, signaling that growth is steady but losing pace.

• Redbook Retail Sales (YoY): +5.7% (vs. +6.3% prior)

Market impact: Slightly negative for USD, as softer retail momentum suggests easing consumer spending.

Historical context: The annual growth rate in Redbook sales eased to its lowest in three months, highlighting signs of cooling demand amid high borrowing costs and slowing wage gains.

• Current Account Balance (Q2): -$251.3B (vs. -$259.0B prior, -$439.8B expected)

Market impact: Positive for USD, as the narrower deficit suggests reduced external funding needs and improved trade balance dynamics.

Historical context: The Q2 shortfall was the smallest in nearly three years, reflecting stronger services exports and lower imports, helping ease pressure on the U.S. external position.

• 3-Month Bill Auction: 3.860% (vs. 3.905% prior)
• 6-Month Bill Auction: 3.705% (vs. 3.715% prior)

Market impact: Neutral to slightly negative for USD, as marginally lower yields reflect steady demand for short-term government debt.

Historical context: Yields on short-term Treasuries have held near multi-year highs, but the slight dip suggests markets are adjusting expectations for Fed policy as inflation trends lower.