EconoTicker

Israel’s President Isaac Herzog issued a Ramadan message addressed to the people of Iran, saying he hopes and prays that the Islamic Republic’s “reign of terror” will end and that the region will enter a new era in which Iran’s proxies “have gone away,” bringing a different future for Middle East children. The remarks were delivered during a visit to Israel’s Gaza Civil-Military Coordination Center in Kiryat Gat, Israeli media reported.

Israel’s Ynet reports that Israeli officials assess President Donald Trump is inclined to approve a broad military strike on Iran “soon” after Tehran failed to meet U.S. demands in the latest negotiations, with Trump aides believing Iran is stalling and misleading Washington.

Ynet says the mood in Israel is that a decisive moment is approaching and timelines have compressed from “two weeks” (and earlier “a month”) to potentially “within days.” It adds that Israel’s working assumption is Iran could launch missiles at Israel even if the IDF doesn’t take part, prompting maximum defensive alert and instructions to emergency services and the Home Front Command to prepare.

On escalation scenarios, Ynet writes that Israel expects the Houthis would immediately enter the fight with missiles and drones, and that there is also a plausible scenario where Hezbollah does not stay on the sidelines (unlike the “12-day war”), potentially opening another front.

Separately, Reuters reports Iran is expected to return with a written proposal in the coming weeks as U.S. officials continue to weigh military options, including planning for weeks-long operations if ordered.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the U.S. and Iran made “a little bit of progress” in the latest round of talks, but remain “very far apart on some issues.”

Leavitt added that Iran is expected to return in the next couple of weeks with more detailed proposals, and that President Trump will keep watching how the process develops.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed emergency/rescue agencies and the IDF Home Front Command to prepare for the possibility of war with Iran, with Israeli media describing a state of “maximum alert” across multiple security bodies.

Israel’s public broadcaster KAN also reported that a security cabinet meeting originally slated for Thursday to review Iran-related developments was postponed to Sunday, underscoring elevated readiness amid rising U.S.–Iran tensions.

President Donald Trump said he told UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer that Britain is making a “big mistake” over the Diego Garcia basing arrangement, warning that if Iran refuses a nuclear deal, the U.S. might need to use Diego Garcia and the airfield at RAF Fairford to “eradicate/neutralize” a potential attack from what he called a “highly unstable and dangerous regime.”

Trump’s comments—posted on Truth Social—land amid a UK–Mauritius understanding to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands while keeping the U.S.–UK base on Diego Garcia operating under a long-term lease arrangement, a setup Washington has viewed as strategically important for Middle East and Indo-Pacific operations.

Newsweek argues that the escalating U.S.–Iran standoff is entering a high-risk phase, listing six signals that, in its view, make a conflict more likely: a rapid U.S. show of force in the Middle East; planning for a “massive, weekslong” campaign; nuclear talks stuck on red lines; satellite evidence Iran is fortifying key facilities; growing domestic unrest and pressure inside Iran; and Tehran’s temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz for live-fire drills.

Newsweek notes war is not guaranteed, but says the “warning signs” are stronger than they have been in years.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with Al Arabiya that any new strikes on Iran would bring “adverse consequences” for the international community, arguing that the June 2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran’s IAEA-supervised nuclear facilities undermined both the IAEA’s authority and the NPT, and created “real risks of a nuclear incident.”

Lavrov added that those strikes pushed Iran to think about physical protection of nuclear materials that are under IAEA control, and said he is closely watching reactions in the region—especially among Arab countries and Gulf monarchies—stressing that “no one wants further escalation.”

He also argued Iran has rights to peaceful uranium enrichment under the NPT, and said Tehran had previously signaled readiness to reduce enrichment to levels needed for peaceful purposes (around 3–6%) under IAEA oversight if inspections return to normal working conditions.

Former U.S. Army officer Stanislav Krapivnik, speaking to RT host Rick Sanchez, argued that an Iranian collapse would amount to an “existential crisis” for Russia and China, and portrayed recent Russia-Iran naval activity as a direct deterrent message to Washington: “Don’t do it.”

The comments land as Iran and Russia have announced/held naval drills/operations in the Gulf of Oman, framed by both sides as focused on maritime security and civilian navigation—but occurring amid elevated U.S.–Iran tensions.

In the wider backdrop, satellite imagery and official reporting point to Iran fortifying sensitive sites while the U.S. military posture in the region remains heightened as diplomacy continues.

Russia’s Mikhail Ulyanov, Iran’s Reza Najafi, and China’s Li Song met IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi in Vienna to discuss Iran’s nuclear programme, according to Iranian state media and diplomatic reporting.

The meeting comes immediately after the second round of U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, where Iran said it reached an understanding on broad “guiding principles,” while officials cautioned that a final deal is not imminent.

Russia and Iran conducted joint naval operations in the Gulf of Oman, with Russia’s Defense Ministry saying the activities were focused mainly on ensuring the safety of civilian navigation.

Russian reporting says the drill involved coordinated maneuvers and communications procedures, and it followed a port call in Bandar Abbas, where protocol events were held with the Iranian side.

Axios reports U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been holding secret talks with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro (“Raulito”)—Raúl Castro’s grandson and caretaker—bypassing official Cuban government channels as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Havana.

According to Axios sources, Rubio’s team views the 41-year-old and his circle as younger, business-minded insiders who could facilitate a U.S. rapprochement and possible transition scenario. One source summed up the search as: “They’re looking for the next Delcy in Cuba”—a reference to Washington’s Venezuela playbook, where Maduro’s allies (including Delcy Rodríguez) remained central after the U.S. operation.

Cuba’s government, per Axios, denied any “high-level dialogue” with the U.S., while the State Department did not dispute that Rubio spoke with Raulito but declined to comment.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukrainian intelligence has briefed him on a Russian pitch of “$12 trillion” worth of potential U.S.–Russia economic deals tied to sanctions relief, and The Economist reports that one insider believes a sanctions-relief package may already be agreed in principle—a claim that remains unconfirmed publicly.

The Washington Post describes the framework as a “Dmitriev package,” allegedly linked to Russia’s sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev, with elements that could touch Ukraine (including contested regions) and a phased sanctions rollback—fueling European concern that Trump could pressure Kyiv into concessions to unlock those commercial incentives.

Separately, Reuters has reported Zelensky’s comments that Washington wants the war track wrapped up before summer / by June, reinforcing European fears about a compressed timetable and leverage dynamics in any grand bargain narrative.