EconoTicker

Iran’s atomic energy chief Mohammad Eslami said the country’s nuclear program is proceeding under IAEA rules and that no country can deprive Iran of its right to peaceful nuclear technology, underscoring that enrichment is “the basis” of the nuclear industry because “whatever you want to do… you need nuclear fuel.” He also argued it is illogical to suggest Iran could have the broader nuclear “network” but not the ability to operate power reactors—insisting that without nuclear fuel, running a nuclear power plant is meaningless. The remarks come as U.S.–Iran engagement continues under heightened regional tensions and military signaling.

Source: according to AFP, citing a video published by Etemad daily and carried by Arab News.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said at an IDF officers’ cadets graduation ceremony that during the 12-day war Israel “removed the threats of annihilation” and will not allow such threats to re-emerge, pledging to act against “every threat, near and far.” He also issued a direct warning to adversaries: “Do not test us… you will find a united people and a strong and victorious army facing you.”

Source: according to The Times of Israel.

The Wall Street Journal reported that in high-level talks in Geneva, U.S. officials are pressing for Iran to end its nuclear activities, while also seeking constraints on Iran’s ballistic-missile program and support for regional armed proxies. But the report says Tehran has rejected a comprehensive agreement and, so far, has put forward only limited nuclear-related concessions.

Source: according to The Wall Street Journal; Reuters also reported Iran is willing to discuss limited nuclear curbs tied to sanctions relief while refusing to halt enrichment or expand talks to missiles and regional issues.

Plans reviewed by The Guardian show the Trump administration is considering a phased build-out of a large military operating base in southern Gaza—designed to house roughly 5,000 personnel and serve as a hub for a proposed multinational International Stabilization Force (ISF) under Trump’s Board of Peace. The documents describe a footprint of about 1,400m × 1,100m on 350+ acres, ringed by barbed wire and featuring 26 trailer-mounted armored watchtowers, bunkers, a small-arms range, and military warehouses. The report notes major open questions on governance, legitimacy, and rules of engagement, with critics arguing a base built without Palestinian approval would amount to de facto occupation. Reuters separately reported that five countries have now committed troops to the ISF and that deployment is expected to begin in Rafah before expanding sector-by-sector.

Source: according to The Guardian and Reuters.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said the latest U.S.–Iran talks in Geneva (held indirectly via Oman) marked a “step forward,” with concrete issues now on the table—but warned the sides “don’t have much time” to reach an agreement. The comments came as Washington keeps signaling a credible military option alongside diplomacy, with reporting pointing to a sustained U.S. force build-up in the region while negotiators prepare for follow-up rounds in the coming weeks. Source: according to AFP, Axios, The Guardian, and **TRT World.

Israel has reportedly moved to highest alert amid assessments that a potential U.S.-led, joint U.S.–Israeli operation against Iran could be broad, prolonged, and more intense than June 2025’s 12-day war, with objectives ranging from Iran’s ballistic missile network to senior leadership and critical infrastructure. Ynetnews said Israel’s security cabinet meeting was postponed to avoid miscalculation, while emergency and civilian defense bodies have been instructed to prepare for missile retaliation even if Israel were not formally involved. The report also described a major U.S. force build-up in the region and noted concerns that the Houthis would join immediately, with a scenario where Hezbollah could also enter the fight. Timing remains uncertain and dependent on U.S. decision-making. Source: according to Ynetnews; Reuters has separately reported Iran is repairing and fortifying sensitive sites amid ongoing U.S.–Israel tensions.

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged Polish nationals to leave Iran immediately, warning the security situation could deteriorate so fast that exiting the country may soon become impossible.

The warning comes amid a sharpening drumbeat around potential U.S. military action. The New York Times has reported the U.S. force buildup has reached a point where President Donald Trump would have the option to launch action as soon as this weekend, while Israeli defense officials described planning that envisions a multi-day campaign aimed at degrading Iranian strategic assets and increasing pressure on Tehran.

Separately, Reuters has reported U.S. military planning for potentially weeks-long operations that could extend beyond nuclear infrastructure to include broader state and security targets—underscoring the risk of escalation across the region.

Source: Reuters; The Times of Israel (via Reuters); Gulf News (citing The New York Times).

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham argued Washington should accept the risks of military action against Iran — including potential attacks on U.S. troops in the region and Iranian retaliation — saying the danger of backing down / doing nothing is worse.

In separate remarks reported from a Sky News Arabia interview, Graham suggested the decision on Iran is effectively made, pointing to the U.S. force buildup: “All these ships aren’t coming here just because the weather is nice.”

Meanwhile, Sen. Ted Cruz said Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has only one option: to leave power.

The rhetoric lands as CBS News reports senior national-security officials told President Donald Trump the U.S. military is ready for potential strikes as soon as Saturday, Feb. 21, while noting Trump has not made a final decision.

Source: Rev (press conference transcript), Sky News Arabia (as reported), CBS News, Fox News.

U.S. Senator Ted Cruz said Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has only one realistic option: to step down and leave the country, arguing the Islamic Republic is “in tatters” and needs time to rebuild—time he believes President Donald Trump won’t grant in negotiations.

In a Fox News interview, Cruz framed exile as the only bargain he thinks is possible, suggesting Khamenei would have to say he’s leaving and ask to go “to Russia” or elsewhere. Source: Fox News (Hannity).

Open-source tracking and defense reporting suggest up to 36 U.S. F-16s have been flown from Europe/U.S. toward the broader Middle East, with around 24 reportedly in the F-16CJ “Wild Weasel” configuration—aircraft optimized for Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD/DEAD). Washington has not officially confirmed the composition or destination of the package.

A defining element of the F-16CJ SEAD fit is the AN/ASQ-213 HARM Targeting System (HTS)—an external pod mounted on an engine-inlet hardpoint that can passively detect and geolocate hostile radar emitters, feeding targeting data for anti-radiation strikes.

That HTS-enabled kill chain is typically paired with AGM-88 HARM family missiles (and in some cases newer variants), while AN/ALQ-184 electronic-attack pods can add noise/deception jamming to disrupt radar tracking and guidance—exactly the toolkit you’d expect if planners are preparing to operate in a dense, contested air-defense environment.

Sources: Army Recognition; U.S. Air Force (Fact Sheet / National Museum USAF); Federation of American Scientists.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Iran “would be very wise” to reach an agreement with President Donald Trump, while acknowledging that the latest Geneva talks delivered only “a little bit of progress” and that Washington and Tehran are still “very far apart on some issues.”

Leavitt added that Iran is expected to return in the coming weeks with more detailed proposals, but declined to specify a firm deadline—saying diplomacy remains Trump’s first option even as she argued there are “many reasons and arguments” that could be made for a strike.

A senior U.S. official told Reuters that Iran is expected to submit a written proposal after Tuesday’s Geneva talks, addressing issues President Donald Trump has raised in order to avoid a U.S.–Iran confrontation.

The same official said White House national security advisers were told in a Wednesday Situation Room meeting that all U.S. forces being sent to the region must be in place by mid-March (reported as around March 16 / 25 Esfand). The official also said Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to travel to Israel for talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the Feb. 28 weekend to discuss Iran.