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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیThe War Zone reports that the U.S. is now moving key “missing” capabilities into position that would be typical ahead of a sustained air campaign—even though it remains unclear whether President Donald Trump will ultimately order strikes.
According to the report, online flight-tracking shows F-22 Raptors, F-16 Fighting Falcons, E-3 Sentry (AWACS) aircraft, and a U-2 “Dragon Lady” spy plane either crossing the Atlantic or newly arrived in Europe, a common staging path before onward movement toward the Middle East.
On the naval side, The War Zone says a seventh Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer (USS Pinckney) has deployed into the CENTCOM area of responsibility, adding to an already expanded maritime posture.
Axios reports the Trump administration is closer to a major Middle East war with Iran than most Americans realize, and that any operation would likely be a massive, weeks-long campaign—more like a full war than last month’s pinpoint Venezuela operation—and potentially a joint U.S.–Israeli effort broader than last June’s Israeli-led 12-day war (which Axios says the U.S. later joined).
Axios says U.S. advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi for three hours in Geneva on Tuesday. While both sides spoke of “progress,” Axios reports U.S. officials are not optimistic the wide gaps can be closed, and the U.S. expects Iran to return within two weeks with a detailed proposal.
Military posture highlighted by Axios
Separately, Reuters has reported U.S. military planning includes the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations if Trump orders an attack, and noted the Pentagon has been sending additional carrier capability and other firepower to the region.
U.S.-mediated Russia–Ukraine negotiations in Geneva ended without a concrete breakthrough, after the second day of talks lasted about two hours—far shorter than the first day, which stretched roughly six hours and was described as “very tense” by a Russian source.
Despite U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff striking an upbeat tone after day one—saying the process produced “meaningful progress”—both Kyiv and Moscow publicly described the talks as difficult, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Russia of dragging out the process. Further rounds were signaled, but without a date.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah said it rejects the government’s decision to give the Lebanese army at least four months to advance Phase 2 of a nationwide disarmament plan, arguing it will not accept what it views as an action “in the service of Israel.”
The four-month window is tied to the next stage of a state plan to extend control over weapons in parts of the country, a move Lebanon’s government says is needed to consolidate state authority and implement security commitments amid continued cross-border volatility.
Reports from the Clash Report claim the U.S. is deploying six E-3 AWACS aircraft to Europe as a staging move, with an expectation that they could continue onward toward CENTCOM bases.
What’s independently visible so far via defense reporting and flight-tracking:
Why it matters: The E-3 AWACS is a flying radar + command-and-control node that builds the air picture and coordinates air operations—often a key enabler when a force posture shifts toward higher readiness.
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has rejected taking a full seat on President Donald Trump’s U.S.-led “Board of Peace,” arguing the forum lacks Palestinian representation.
Sheinbaum stressed that for any peace framework tied to Gaza, both Israel and Palestine must participate, noting Mexico recognizes Palestine as a state. She added that Mexico may send an observer instead of joining as a member.
The decision adds to a broader pattern of cautious or limited participation by several U.S. partners, with some countries choosing observer status rather than formal membership amid questions about the board’s mandate and structure.
The Vatican signaled it will not join President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace,” with Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin saying the Holy See “will not participate… because of its particular nature, which is evidently not that of other States.”
Parolin also underscored the Vatican’s view that major international crises should be handled primarily through the United Nations, rather than ad-hoc political boards.
Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he wants the next Israeli government to cancel the Oslo Accords, advance Israeli sovereignty in the West Bank, and “encourage migration” of Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank—remarks reported by Israeli outlets from a Religious Zionism event.
Smotrich also used the phrase “destroy the idea of an Arab terror state” while describing these goals, according to the same reports.
The comments are highly contentious because international humanitarian law prohibits forcible transfers/deportations of protected persons from occupied territory (Fourth Geneva Convention, Article 49).
They also come as Israel’s cabinet has recently approved steps (including West Bank land registration) that Palestinians and critics describe as deepening control and risking de facto annexation.
Israeli media chatter—attributed to Channel 12—suggests the White House has signaled to Israel that the Iran nuclear track is hitting a dead end, arguing Tehran won’t meet President Trump’s core demands.
But reporting from Geneva points to a more mixed (and still fluid) reality: Iran’s FM Abbas Araqchi said negotiators reached a broad understanding on “guiding principles”, while a U.S. official said Iran will return within two weeks with detailed proposals to narrow remaining gaps—though no deal is imminent and Washington has not issued a full public readout.
Where the “red lines” are
Market angle (why traders care)
Araqchi’s “principles” comments helped ease immediate conflict premium, with Brent dropping more than 1% during the reaction window—classic “reduced war-risk” pricing. The next two-week window is now the key catalyst: headline risk remains high, but any credible framework tends to weigh on crude risk premium, while a breakdown tends to re-price escalation risk fast.
South American and Spanish-language outlets say streets in multiple Cuban cities are increasingly dotted with cars left parked or stranded as drivers struggle to find gasoline amid a deepening fuel crisis.
International reporting shows the squeeze is intensifying: Cuba has moved to ration fuel to protect essential services, while many drivers now face months-long waits to refuel under a mandatory appointment system (“Ticket” app).
Reuters also reports the shortage is pushing residents toward electric tricycles, scooters, and bicycles, effectively reshaping urban mobility as the island confronts one of its worst fuel shortages in years.
The disruption is tied to a sharp drop in supply over recent months, with Venezuela halting shipments in mid-December and Mexico also stepping back after U.S. pressure, while Russia has been reported as preparing fuel deliveries without a clear timeline.
Republican Senator Tom Cotton commented on the Islamic Republic’s recent negotiations with the United States, arguing that while Iran has “never won a war,” it has also “never lost a negotiation.”
Cotton said Iran is not a normal state, but an Islamic revolutionary regime that has spent 47 years exporting terror and bloodshed globally—much of it, he claimed, directed against the United States and Israel.
He added that President Donald Trump has consistently stressed that such a regime must not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles, and must also end support for terrorism.
Cotton also said the U.S. military presence in the region is intended to ensure the president has all options available, arguing that any diplomacy underway should be conducted from a position of strength.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance offered a mixed assessment of the latest Iran negotiations, saying that “in some ways, it went well” — including agreement to meet again — but that it was also “very clear” President Donald Trump has set red lines that Iran is not yet willing to acknowledge and work through.
Vance said Washington will keep working the diplomatic track, while emphasizing the president retains the option to determine when diplomacy has reached its limit. On the Iranian side, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the parties reached a general agreement on guiding principles and would move toward drafting a potential deal, with both sides expected to exchange texts before setting a date for the next round.