EconoTicker

• Economic Activity (YoY, Jul): +2.9% (vs. +3.3% prior, +6.4% expected)

Market impact: Negative for ARS, as weaker-than-expected growth underscores fragility in Argentina’s recovery.

Historical context: July marked the slowest annual expansion in four months, reflecting persistent headwinds from inflation, currency volatility, and weak investment.

• Foreign Exchange Flows: -$0.66B (vs. -$0.16B prior)

Market impact: Negative for BRL, as continued capital outflows highlight weaker foreign investment appetite.

Historical context: The latest outflow was the sharpest in two months, reflecting sustained pressure from portfolio outflows amid global risk aversion.

• 1st Half-Month Core CPI (Sep): +0.22% (vs. +0.20% prior, +0.09% expected)
• 1st Half-Month CPI (Sep): +0.18% (vs. +0.19% prior, -0.02% expected)

Market impact: Neutral to slightly positive for MXN, as inflation surprised to the upside, supporting expectations that Banxico will maintain a cautious policy stance.

Historical context: The uptick marked the second consecutive half-month with above-expected core inflation, reflecting persistent pressures in services and food prices.

• Capacity Utilization (Sep): 74.0% (vs. 73.5% prior)
• Manufacturing Confidence (Sep): 100.2 (vs. 100.6 prior)

Market impact: Neutral for TRY, as stronger capacity use was offset by a slight dip in confidence, signaling steady but fragile industrial sentiment.

Historical context: Utilization improved to its highest since early 2024, but confidence remains near the neutral 100 mark, reflecting cautious optimism among manufacturers.

• Consumer Confidence Index (Sep): 110.1 (vs. 111.4 prior)

Market impact: Slightly negative for KRW, as softer sentiment may weigh on household spending.

Historical context: Despite the decline, confidence remains above the 100 threshold, indicating overall optimism compared with long-term averages.

• Retail Sales (YoY, Jul): +29.6% (vs. +31.1% prior)

Market impact: Neutral to slightly negative for ARS, as consumer demand remains strong in nominal terms but is slowing amid high inflation.

Historical context: Despite robust double-digit growth, July marked the weakest pace in six months, underscoring the drag from eroding purchasing power and persistent inflationary pressures.

• Economic Activity (YoY, Jul): -1.1% (vs. -0.7% prior, +1.3% expected)
• Economic Activity (MoM, Jul): -0.9% (vs. -0.7% prior, +0.1% expected)
• Retail Sales (MoM, Jul): +0.1% (vs. -0.1% prior, -0.4% expected)
• Retail Sales (YoY, Jul): +2.4% (vs. +1.6% prior, +3.2% expected)

Market impact: Negative for MXN, as broad economic activity contracted more than expected, even though retail sales showed resilience.

Historical context: July marked the sharpest monthly drop in activity since 2020, underscoring weakness in industry and services, while retail demand provided only limited support to the economy.

• Leading Business Cycle Indicator (Jul): 113.7 (vs. 112.7 prior)

Market impact: Mildly positive for ZAR, as the rise suggests improving economic momentum ahead.

Historical context: The index climbed to its highest level in several months, signaling potential stabilization in South Africa’s growth outlook after prolonged weakness.

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep): 58.5 (vs. 59.3 prior)
• S&P Global Services PMI (Sep): 61.6 (vs. 62.9 prior)

Composite Manufacturing & Services PMI (Sep): 61.9 (vs. 63.2 prior)

Market impact: Neutral to slightly negative for INR, as activity eased from August highs but remains firmly in expansion territory.

Historical context: Despite the moderation, September’s readings stay well above the 50 threshold, highlighting India’s strong economic momentum with both manufacturing and services continuing to outperform regional peers.

• Producer Price Index (YoY, Aug): +0.6% (vs. +0.5% prior)
• Producer Price Index (MoM, Aug): -0.1% (vs. +0.4% prior)

Market impact: Neutral for KRW, as annual producer inflation picked up slightly but monthly data showed a decline, suggesting mixed cost pressures.

Historical context: The yearly rise remains modest, while the monthly drop reflects easing input costs, especially in energy and raw materials, highlighting ongoing volatility in producer prices.

• Central Government Debt Stock (Aug): ₺12,477.1B (vs. ₺12,045.0B prior)

Market impact: Negative for TRY, as the rising debt burden highlights fiscal pressures and may weigh on investor confidence.

Historical context: The debt stock climbed by over ₺400B in a single month, continuing the upward trajectory driven by high borrowing needs and lira depreciation.

• Infrastructure Output (YoY, Aug): +6.3% (vs. +3.7% prior)

Market impact: Positive for INR, as stronger infrastructure activity signals improving industrial momentum and supports growth outlook.

Historical context: August’s growth marks one of the strongest readings this year, reflecting government-led spending and robust demand in core sectors such as steel, cement, and electricity.