EconoTicker

• Trade Balance (Aug): +ZAR 3.97B (prior +ZAR 19.56B).

Market impact: Negative for ZAR, as the smaller surplus signals weaker export momentum and rising import pressures.

Historical context: The August figure marked the lowest trade surplus since early 2024, highlighting volatility in South Africa’s external balances.

• Unemployment Rate (Aug): 5.6% (expected 5.6%, prior 5.6%).

Market impact: Neutral for BRL, as labor market stability signals steady employment conditions.

Historical context: Jobless rate has remained unchanged for several months, near its lowest levels since 2015, reflecting resilience in Brazil’s labor market.

• Net Debt-to-GDP (Aug): 64.2% (prior 63.7%).
• Budget Balance (Aug): -91.52B BRL (expected -96.10B, prior -175.58B).
• Primary Budget Balance (Aug): -17.26B BRL (prior -66.57B).
• Gross Debt-to-GDP (Aug): 77.5% (expected 78.0%, prior 77.6%).

Market impact: Neutral for BRL; deficits remain wide but debt ratios stable, suggesting fiscal challenges are contained for now.

Historical context: Gross debt stayed near record highs above 77%, while the budget gap narrowed compared to July’s deep shortfall.

• Federal Fiscal Deficit (Aug): ₹5,981.53B (prior ₹4,684.16B).

Market impact: Slightly negative for INR, as a wider deficit underscores fiscal pressures and may weigh on sovereign outlook.

Historical context: The deficit has widened sharply from July, reflecting front-loaded spending and uneven revenue flows.

• Unemployment Rate (MoM, Aug): 8.5% (prior 8.1%).

Market impact: Negative for TRY, as the uptick in unemployment signals persistent weakness in the labor market despite recent growth efforts.

Historical context: Jobless rate climbed to its highest level since early 2024, reversing the steady declines seen earlier in the year.

• Exports (Aug): $21.70B (expected $21.80B, prior $24.90B).
• Trade Balance (Aug): -$4.21B (expected -$4.20B, prior -$6.44B).

Market impact: Neutral for TRY; narrowing deficit offers some relief, but weaker exports highlight persistent external sector challenges.

Historical context: Despite the smaller gap, exports remain well below 2023 peaks, showing the continued drag from softer global demand.

• M3 Money Supply (YoY, Aug): +6.18% (prior +6.75%).
• Private Sector Credit (YoY, Aug): +5.86% (prior +5.84%).

Market impact: Neutral for ZAR; softer money supply growth points to tightening liquidity, though stable credit growth suggests steady private demand.

Historical context: M3 growth has eased from mid-year highs, while credit expansion remains broadly unchanged, reflecting a balanced but cautious monetary backdrop.

• Retail Sales (MoM, Aug): -2.4% (prior +2.7%).
• Service Sector Output (MoM, Aug): -0.7% (prior +0.2%).

Market impact: Negative for KRW, as weakness in both retail and services highlights fragile domestic demand.

Historical context: The declines reverse July’s strength, underscoring volatility in household spending and service activity amid softer economic momentum.

• Industrial Production (YoY, Aug): +0.9% (expected +1.3%, prior +5.0%).
• Industrial Production (MoM, Aug): +2.4% (prior +0.3%).

Market impact: Mixed for KRW; while year-on-year growth slowed sharply, the strong monthly rebound points to short-term stabilization.

Historical context: Annual output growth cooled from July’s surge, but the monthly gain was the strongest since early 2024, signaling a potential bottoming in manufacturing.

• Current Account (Q2): -$3.016B (prior -$5.191B).

Market impact: Slightly supportive for ARS, as the narrowing deficit suggests some relief in Argentina’s external balances.

Historical context: Despite improvement, the current account remains in deficit, reflecting structural trade and financing pressures on the Argentine economy.

• CAGED Net Payroll Jobs (Aug): +147.36K (expected +160.00K, prior +129.78K).

Market impact: Slightly negative for BRL, as weaker-than-expected job creation tempers optimism over Brazil’s labor market strength.

Historical context: Job gains eased from expectations but remain stronger than July, showing continued resilience in formal employment.

• Interest Rate Decision (Sep): 4.50% (expected 4.50%, prior 4.50%).

Market impact: Neutral for ILS, as the decision was fully in line with expectations, signaling a continued wait-and-see approach amid inflation and geopolitical risks.

Historical context: Rates remain at their highest level in over a decade, with the central bank balancing sticky inflation against slowing economic momentum.