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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیSouth Africa’s factory activity showed modest improvement in September, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.2 from 50.1 in August. The index remains just above the 50-mark, signaling only marginal expansion as weak demand and power supply issues continue to weigh on output.
Market impact: Neutral for ZAR, as the data suggests stability but no significant pickup in industrial momentum.
Historical context: The PMI has hovered around the 50-threshold for much of 2024–2025, highlighting the sector’s fragile recovery amid ongoing structural challenges.
Turkey’s consumer inflation picked up in September, with headline CPI rising 33.29% YoY (vs. 32.50% expected, 32.95% prior). On a monthly basis, prices jumped 3.23%, well above the 2.60% forecast and the 2.04% increase in August.
Core CPI (excluding energy, food, beverages, tobacco & gold) rose 32.5% YoY and 3.2% MoM, both showing persistent price pressures. Producer inflation also accelerated, with PPI up 26.6% YoY and 2.5% MoM.
Market impact: Negative for TRY, as stronger-than-expected inflation keeps pressure on the central bank to maintain or even extend tight monetary policy.
Historical context: Despite recent rate hikes, inflation remains entrenched above 30%, highlighting structural price challenges across both consumer and producer levels.
Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves climbed in the latest update, with gross reserves rising to $86.70B from $85.10B. Net reserves also improved, reaching 72.72% compared with 70.40% earlier. The increase suggests a firmer external buffer for the lira, giving the central bank more room to manage volatility in global markets.
Market impact: Supportive for TRY, as stronger reserves help bolster investor confidence.
Historical context: Gross reserves are holding near their highest levels since early 2023, showing the central bank’s ongoing efforts to rebuild its currency shield.
Brazil’s IPC-Fipe inflation index surged 0.65% in September, a sharp rise compared with just 0.04% in August. The acceleration points to stronger price pressures in São Paulo, the country’s key reference for consumer costs. For the real, the data may revive expectations of a more cautious stance from the central bank on future rate cuts.
Market impact: Negative for TRY, as the wider deficit highlights external imbalances despite stronger export growth.
Historical context: The deficit expanded to its largest level since early 2024, driven by rising imports outpacing export gains.
Market impact: Neutral for KRW, as the surplus remains strong though slightly narrower than the prior month.
Historical context: Korea’s external balance has stayed in consistent surplus through 2024–2025, supported by resilient exports and a narrower energy import bill.
Market impact: Supportive for KRW, as higher-than-expected inflation reinforces expectations that the Bank of Korea will maintain a cautious policy stance.
Historical context: Inflation accelerated to its highest level in four months, reversing August’s dip into disinflationary territory.
Market impact: Supportive for BRL, as the return to net inflows boosts liquidity and signals stronger foreign capital participation.
Historical context: This marks a sharp reversal from last period’s outflows, reflecting improved sentiment toward Brazilian assets.
Market impact: Negative for MXN, as the drop below 50 signals renewed contraction in factory activity.
Historical context: The index returned to contraction territory for the first time in five months, underscoring persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Market impact: Negative for BRL, as the deeper contraction highlights persistent weakness in Brazil’s industrial sector.
Historical context: The index has remained below the 50 threshold for five consecutive months, signaling sustained manufacturing slowdown.
Market impact: Neutral for INR; slower money growth signals modest tightening in liquidity, though levels remain consistent with steady economic activity.
Historical context: M3 growth has eased slightly from earlier highs but remains within its 2024–2025 range, reflecting balanced monetary conditions.
Market impact: Neutral for INR, as the decision was fully anticipated, reflecting the RBI’s cautious stance amid controlled inflation and steady growth.
Historical context: Rates have remained unchanged for several months, underscoring the central bank’s balance between supporting growth and anchoring inflation.