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Italy’s February sentiment split: business confidence slipped, but consumer confidence improved modestly—important for consumption-led growth.

• Business Confidence (Feb): 88.5 (prior 89.2)
• Consumer Confidence (Feb): 97.4 (vs 97.2 expected; prior 96.8)

Source: ISTAT

Eurozone liquidity accelerated in January, but lending to non-financial corporates undershot expectations—pointing to improving money growth with a mixed credit impulse.

• M3 Money Supply (YoY, Jan): 3.3% (vs 2.9% expected; prior 2.8%)
• M3 Money Supply (Jan): €17,344.7B (prior €17,230.7B)
• Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Jan): 2.8% (vs 3.1% expected; prior 3.0%)
• Private Sector Loans (YoY, Jan): 3.0% (vs 3.1% expected; prior 3.0%)

Source: European Central Bank (ECB)

Italy’s bond auctions were priced at lower yields, pointing to a friendlier tone in sovereign funding costs.

• Italian 10-Year BTP Auction: 3.31% (prior 3.44%)
• Italian 5-Year BTP Auction: 2.62% (prior 2.74%)

Why it matters: lower auction yields suggest improved demand/conditions in BTPs, supportive for Italy’s front-to-belly funding curve as rate expectations evolve.

Source: Italian Treasury (MEF)

The Eurozone’s February survey set showed a softer growth-confidence pulse, even as inflation expectations in the survey ticked higher.

• Business & Consumer Survey (Feb): 98.3 (vs 99.8 expected; prior 99.3)
• Industrial Sentiment (Feb): -7.1 (vs -6.1 expected; prior -6.8)
• Services Sentiment (Feb): 5.0 (vs 7.5 expected; prior 7.2)
• Consumer Confidence (Feb): -12.2 (in line; prior -12.4)
• Business Climate (Feb): -0.36 (prior -0.38)
• Selling Price Expectations (Feb): 11.5 (prior 10.3)
• Consumer Inflation Expectation (Feb): 25.8 (prior 24.2)

Why it matters: sentiment is weakening across industry/services, while pricing expectations are creeping up—an awkward mix that can keep the ECB focused on “not declaring victory” even as activity indicators soften.

Source: European Commission (DG ECFIN) surveys

Euro area inflation data for January kept the annual picture broadly stable, but the monthly breakdown came in weaker—pointing to softer near-term price momentum.

• CPI (YoY, Jan): 1.7% (in line with 1.7% expected; 1.9% prior)
• Core CPI (YoY, Jan): 2.2% (in line with 2.2% expected; 2.3% prior)
• CPI (MoM, Jan): -0.6% (vs -0.5% expected; 0.2% prior)
• Core CPI (MoM, Jan): -1.1% (prior 0.3%)
• HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY, Jan): 2.1% (vs 2.2% expected; 2.3% prior)
• HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM, Jan): -0.8% (prior 0.2%)
• CPI ex Tobacco (YoY, Jan): 1.6% (prior 1.9%)
• CPI ex Tobacco (MoM, Jan): -0.6% (prior 0.2%)
• CPI (n.s.a., Jan): 100.05 (vs 100.08 expected; 129.54 prior)

Why it matters: With headline CPI at 1.7% and core easing to 2.2%, the inflation trend continues to look contained. The softer MoM prints reinforce the narrative that underlying pressures are not re-accelerating—supportive for a more dovish ECB bias if growth remains fragile.

Source: Eurostat (Euro area CPI/HICP release)

Italy’s short-term funding costs edged lower, with the 6-month BOT auction clearing at a slightly reduced yield.

• Italian 6-Month BOT Auction: 2.032% (prior 2.040%)

Why it matters: small moves at the front end suggest stable near-term financing conditions, with the bigger driver still being ECB-rate expectations and risk sentiment.

Source: Italy Treasury (MEF)

Switzerland’s ZEW expectations index rebounded sharply into positive territory in February, marking a notable improvement in forward-looking sentiment.

• ZEW Expectations (Feb): 9.8 (prior -4.7)

Why it matters: a move back above zero typically points to improving expectations for the economic outlook—though follow-through in hard data is the real confirmation.

Source: ZEW Financial Market Survey (Switzerland)

Spain’s producer-price inflation remained in deflationary territory in January, pointing to continued softness in upstream price pressures.

• Spanish PPI (YoY, Jan): -2.9% (prior -3.0%)

Source: INE (Spain)

French consumer sentiment edged higher in February, suggesting a slightly better household backdrop.

• French Consumer Confidence (Feb): 91 (vs 90 expected; prior 90)

Source: INSEE

Germany’s economy posted a steady Q4 expansion in line with expectations, but household sentiment weakened again heading into March.

• GDP (QoQ, Q4): 0.3% (vs 0.3% expected; prior 0.0%)
• GDP (YoY, Q4): 0.4% (vs 0.4% expected; prior 0.3%)
• GfK Consumer Climate (Mar): -24.7 (vs -23.0 expected; prior -24.2)

Source: Destatis; GfK

France’s Business Survey (Feb) came in at 102, below the 104 forecast and down from 105 previously—an early sign that the confidence pulse may be losing some strength.

Source: INSEE (France business survey)

January car registration data showed a sharp divergence across major European markets—Italy rebounded strongly while France and Germany weakened on a year-on-year basis.

• France Car Registrations (MoM, Jan): -38.0% (prev 30.1%)
• France Car Registrations (YoY, Jan): -6.6% (prev -5.8%)
• Germany Car Registrations (MoM, Jan): -21.3% (prev -1.7%)
• Germany Car Registrations (YoY, Jan): -6.6% (prev 9.7%)
• Italy Car Registrations (MoM, Jan): 31.4% (prev -13.0%)
• Italy Car Registrations (YoY, Jan): 6.2% (prev 2.3%)

What it suggests: MoM moves are seasonal and volatile, but the YoY split hints at uneven consumer demand and incentives across Europe’s auto complex.

Source: National vehicle registration authorities/industry bodies (France, Germany, Italy) — official releases