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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیItaly’s January inflation prints stayed subdued, with headline annual rates at 1.0% and a notable negative monthly HICP reading.
Overall, the headline picture keeps inflation contained, but the ex-tobacco figure is an extreme outlier and warrants a careful read of methodology/base effects.
Source: Italy CPI/HICP releases (official national statistics / harmonised inflation reporting)
Germany’s February Ifo readings came in better than expected, with the headline climate index rising and the current situation improving, while expectations held steady.
The data support a narrative of gradual stabilization in Europe’s largest economy, even as broader trade and policy uncertainty remain in the background.
Source: ifo Institute (Germany) — Ifo Business Survey
Switzerland’s inflation pipeline remained soft in January, with producer prices falling again and annual PPI staying firmly negative, while broad money growth ticked up.
This combination points to ongoing disinflation in upstream prices, supportive of a dovish macro backdrop, even as liquidity (M3) edges higher.
Source: Swiss producer prices and money supply releases (official Swiss statistics / central bank data)
RT’s Tehran bureau chief, citing an unnamed military source, reported that the U.S. could assign a potential Iran strike mission to Israel—a move described as an effort to shift the political and military costs of direct action away from Washington. The report claims the U.S. would seek to avoid being portrayed as the “initiator of war,” while acting as an effective offensive and defensive backer for Israel. It also said Iran views any military action by Netanyahu as coordinated with the political will of Trump. No official confirmation from U.S. or Israeli authorities was included in the claim.
Source: RT (Tehran bureau chief), citing an unnamed military source.
Eurozone flash PMIs signaled a firmer activity pulse in February, with manufacturing returning to expansion. Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 (vs 49.9 expected; prior 49.5). Services PMI dipped slightly to 51.8 (vs 51.9 expected; prior 51.6), while the Composite PMI improved to 51.9 (vs 51.5 expected; prior 51.3).
Market lens: The manufacturing rebound is a key positive for the growth narrative, even as the services momentum cooled marginally.
Source: HCOB / S&P Global Flash PMI.
Germany’s flash February PMI set looked distinctly stronger, led by a surprise return to expansion in manufacturing. Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 (prior 49.1; forecast 49.6), Services PMI climbed to 53.4 (prior 52.4; forecast 52.4), and Composite PMI advanced to 53.1 (prior 52.1; forecast 52.3).
Source: HCOB / S&P Global Flash PMI.
France’s flash February PMIs kept the economy just below the expansion line, with weakness concentrated in manufacturing. Services PMI improved to 49.6 (prior 48.4; forecast 49.1), but Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 (prior 51.2; forecast 50.9). Composite PMI edged up to 49.9 (prior 49.1; forecast 49.7), still signaling mild contraction overall.
Source: HCOB / S&P Global Flash PMI.
Germany’s producer-price data surprised to the downside in January, reinforcing the disinflation signal at the factory gate. PPI fell -0.6% MoM (vs +0.3% expected; prior -0.2%) and -3.0% YoY (vs -2.1% expected; prior -2.5%).
Market lens: Softer PPI can ease pipeline inflation pressure and supports the case for a more dovish ECB stance—if it feeds through to consumer prices.
Source: Destatis (Federal Statistical Office of Germany).
Eurozone consumer confidence came in at -12.2 in February (prelim), slightly better than -12.4 prior but weaker than the -12.0 expected. The reading suggests households remain cautious, keeping demand expectations constrained.
Source: European Commission (DG ECFIN) Consumer Confidence Indicator.
Spain’s trade balance remained in deficit in December at -€5.57B, slightly wider than the prior -€5.68B (marginal improvement vs prior deficit level).
Market lens: A persistent trade gap keeps attention on energy imports and external demand conditions.
Source: Spain’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Business / Customs & Excise data.
Eurozone construction output rose 0.88% MoM in December, reversing the prior -1.54% decline—an encouraging year-end stabilization signal for a rate-sensitive sector.
Market lens: A rebound in construction can help the growth narrative, but follow-through will depend on financing conditions and order backlogs.
Source: Eurostat.
Spain’s sovereign auctions showed a split across the curve. The 5-year Bonos auction cleared at 2.577%, up from 2.512% previously, while the 10-year Obligacion auction eased to 3.167% from 3.223%. The 3-year Bonos auction also printed lower at 2.273% versus 2.341% prior.
Market lens: The curve move suggests localized repricing in the belly even as longer and shorter maturities saw slightly easier yields, keeping Spanish spreads in focus.
Source: Spain Treasury (Tesoro Público).