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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیSwitzerland’s retail sales (Jan, y/y) fell -1.1% (vs +2.7% expected; +2.8% prior), a sharp downside surprise that points to a weaker consumer pulse.
At the same time, the procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (Feb) dropped to 47.4 (vs 49.8 expected; 48.8 prior), signaling a deeper contraction in factory activity.
Source: Swiss Federal Statistical Office; procure.ch / UBS
Germany’s retail sales (Jan) fell -0.9% m/m (vs 0.0% expected; prior +1.2%), a clear downside surprise. On an annual basis, sales rose 1.2% y/y, but slowed sharply from 4.3% previously—pointing to a more fragile consumer pulse in early 2018.
Source: Destatis
Germany’s preliminary February inflation printed softer than expected on both CPI and HICP measures, reinforcing the view that price pressures are not re-accelerating.
Source: Destatis; Eurostat (HICP framework)
France’s total number of jobseekers declined in January, pointing to a modest improvement in the employment backdrop.
Why it matters: Fewer registered jobseekers can support consumption resilience and reduce near-term labor-market deterioration risk.
Source: France Travail
Italy’s December industrial sales turned positive, while January’s non-EU trade surplus narrowed sharply.
Why it matters: better industrial sales suggest a firmer production/turnover pulse, but the smaller non-EU surplus highlights external-sector sensitivity.
Source: ISTAT
Germany’s unemployment rate was unchanged in February, while the jobless change was smaller than expected—signaling a still-resilient labor market.
Why it matters: a stable jobless rate supports the “soft-landing” narrative, even as growth indicators remain mixed.
Source: Federal Employment Agency (BA)
Spain’s preliminary February inflation showed a hotter print, with both headline CPI and harmonised HICP rising above expectations—and core inflation also edging up.
Why it matters: Spain’s firmer inflation print adds to the near-term “stickiness” story in the Eurozone’s periphery—something the ECB will watch closely as it calibrates rate cuts.
Source: INE (Spain); Eurostat framework (HICP)
Switzerland’s Q4 GDP came in softer than expected on the quarter, while the KOF leading indicator beat forecasts—suggesting a better forward-looking pulse even as the latest growth print cooled.
Why it matters: the KOF uptick points to improving momentum, while modest reserve growth suggests the SNB’s balance-sheet buffer remains stable.
Source: SECO; KOF Swiss Economic Institute; Swiss National Bank
France delivered a mixed macro set: Q4 GDP held steady, January consumption bounced, and February inflation printed hotter on both national CPI and EU-harmonised measures—while producer prices remained disinflationary year-on-year.
Growth and demand
Inflation (Feb, prelim)
Producer prices (Jan)
Why it matters: France looks stable on growth with a consumer rebound, but the hotter February inflation print complicates the near-term disinflation narrative—especially for ECB watchers. Still, negative PPI YoY suggests upstream price pressure remains soft, which could limit second-round inflation persistence.
Source: INSEE
Germany’s import prices rose more than expected on the month in January, but the annual rate stayed negative—still consistent with a soft imported-inflation backdrop.
Why it matters: the MoM rebound hints at some near-term price firming, but the YoY deflation signal suggests imported inflation pressures remain contained.
Source: Destatis
Spain’s business confidence index edged up in February, but remained negative overall.
Source: INE (Spain)
Switzerland’s employment level rose in Q4, pointing to continued steady labor-market expansion.
Source: Swiss Federal Statistical Office