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U.S. Redbook same-store retail sales grew 7.6% year-on-year, strengthening from the previous 5.9%. The pickup indicates firmer consumer spending heading into the holiday season, supported by early discounting and resilient demand in key retail categories. Despite broader economic uncertainty, the data suggests households are still spending at a solid pace.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for USD and U.S. retail equities; stronger sales momentum supports expectations of firm consumer activity.

Yields on U.S. Treasury bills edged lower at the latest auctions, reflecting slightly softer short-term funding costs. The 3-Month Bill yield dipped to 3.725%, down from 3.745%, while the 6-Month Bill fell to 3.635%, compared with 3.670% previously.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 remained unchanged at 3.9%, suggesting stable expectations for near-term economic growth despite mixed signals elsewhere in the economy.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; lower bill yields soften rate pressures, while steady GDP expectations anchor growth sentiment.

U.S. manufacturing activity softened in November, with several ISM components signaling ongoing contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2, below expectations of 49.0 and slightly under the previous 48.7, marking another month below the 50 threshold.

Employment weakened notably, falling to 44.0 from 46.0, pointing to deeper job softness in the sector. New Orders also slipped to 47.4, down from 49.4, indicating weakening demand.

Prices paid rose to 58.5, above the previous 58.0 but below expectations of 59.5, showing that input cost pressures remain elevated despite softer activity.

Market impact: Mildly bearish for USD; weaker manufacturing momentum and falling employment reinforce expectations for earlier Fed rate cuts.

At the same time, markets are facing growing uncertainty about who may be tapped to lead the Fed next. President Donald Trump said on Sunday, “I know who I am going to pick” as a preferred replacement for current chair Jerome Powell.

President Donald Trump said Sunday he has decided on his pick for the next Federal Reserve chair after making clear he expects his nominee to deliver interest-rate cuts.

Market expectations for a 25 bps rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 9–10 meeting have surged to around 87%, up from roughly 40% a week earlier. The sharp repricing has dragged the dollar lower and pulled down U.S. Treasury yields across the curve.

The shift follows a run of benign economic data and dovish remarks from several Fed officials, though investors remain cautious given the limited flow of new data and mixed policy signals.

Markets are also assessing speculation that Kevin Hassett could be appointed as the next Fed Chair — a move seen as potentially favoring earlier easing and more growth-supportive policy. Such a stance would typically place additional downward pressure on the dollar.

Market impact: Bearish for USD; rising rate-cut odds and potential leadership shifts weigh on dollar sentiment.

U.S. Fed funds futures now imply an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 10 meeting — a sharp rise from 39% just a week ago, according to CME FedWatch.

The shift reflects mounting expectations of policy easing following softer economic data and dovish signals from Fed officials.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield edged up 1.3 basis points to 3.9998%, snapping a five-day slide as bond markets stabilized.

Market impact: Mildly bearish for USD, supportive for risk assets; rising rate-cut bets and steadier yields ease financial conditions.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now projects 3.9% U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter, slightly below the prior 4.0% estimate. While still signaling strong economic momentum, the small downgrade reflects softer recent data, particularly in manufacturing and consumer spending indicators.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; growth remains solid, but marginal cooling aligns with rising expectations for Fed rate cuts.

U.S. Treasury auctions on Wednesday delivered mixed moves across maturities:

• 4-Week Bill Auction: yield rose to 3.905%, up from 3.890%, indicating a modest uptick in very short-term funding costs.
• 8-Week Bill Auction: yield dipped slightly to 3.840% from 3.850%, reflecting steady demand.
• 7-Year Note Auction: yield edged down to 3.781% from 3.790%, signaling stable appetite for medium-term government debt.

Overall, the results point to balanced demand across maturities, with no major shifts in market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; mixed auction results reflect steady investor demand and unchanged rate outlook.

The Chicago PMI fell sharply to 36.3 in November, well below expectations of 44.3 and down from 43.8 previously. The weak reading marks one of the lowest levels of the year and signals a deepening contraction in Midwest manufacturing, driven by softer orders, slower production, and worsening business sentiment.

Market impact: Bearish for USD; the sharp miss reinforces concerns over weakening industrial activity and supports stronger expectations for Fed rate cuts.

U.S. durable goods data for September pointed to steady but uneven momentum in manufacturing:

• Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM): rose 0.6%, slightly above the expected 0.5%, indicating firm underlying demand.
• Headline Durable Goods Orders (MoM): increased 0.5%, matching expectations but sharply below the previous 3.0% surge.
• Durables Excluding Defense (MoM): grew 0.1%, well below the expected 1.9% and unchanged from the prior 1.9%, suggesting softer private-sector demand.
• Non-Defense Capital Goods ex-Aircraft (MoM): rose 0.9%, matching the previous month’s 0.9%, signaling continued business equipment investment.

Overall, the data shows resilient core demand, but a notable cooling from earlier strength in headline orders.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; mixed signals leave manufacturing outlook steady but not accelerating.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 216K, below expectations of 226K and down from 222K, pointing to continued strength in the labor market. The 4-week average eased slightly to 223.75K from 224.75K, smoothing weekly volatility.

Continuing Claims rose marginally to 1.960M from 1.953M, suggesting a modest increase in the number of Americans staying on unemployment benefits.

The data reflects a still-tight labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will weigh incoming employment trends carefully ahead of its December meeting.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for USD; lower-than-expected claims signal labor market resilience and may temper aggressive rate-cut bets.

U.S. mortgage data showed a mixed but stabilizing housing market backdrop:

• MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: rose to 6.40%, up from 6.37%, marking a slight increase in borrowing costs.
• Mortgage Applications (WoW): improved 0.2%, rebounding from a -5.2% drop previously.
• MBA Purchase Index: climbed to 181.6, up from 168.7, signaling firmer homebuying interest.
• Mortgage Market Index: inched up to 317.6 from 316.9.
• Refinance Index: fell to 1,090.4 from 1,156.8, reflecting weaker refinancing demand as rates rise.

The data indicate that while refinancing activity softened, purchase demand showed resilience even amid slightly higher mortgage rates.

Market impact: Neutral for USD; housing demand appears steady but sensitive to rate movements.