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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیU.S. private-sector employment unexpectedly fell by 32,000 in November, a severe downside surprise compared with expectations of a 5,000 increase and a sharp reversal from the previous 47,000 gain. The drop signals a notable cooling in labor demand as businesses slow hiring amid softer economic momentum, rising cost pressures, and heightened uncertainty.
The decline marks one of the weakest ADP readings of the year and reinforces the narrative that the U.S. job market is losing steam ahead of year-end.
Market impact: Bearish for USD; weaker labor data strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts.
U.S. industrial activity showed modest improvement in September.
The Capacity Utilization Rate held steady at 75.9%, missing expectations of 76.9% and remaining well below long-term averages — a sign of underused industrial capacity.
Industrial output showed better momentum:
Despite the month-on-month improvement, the subdued capacity utilization rate highlights lingering slack in the industrial sector.
Market impact: Neutral for USD; steady production supports the outlook, but low capacity use limits bullish implications.
U.S. manufacturing production was unchanged in September, coming in at 0.0%, below expectations of a 0.1% increase and matching the previous month’s 0.1% gain. The flat reading suggests cooling momentum in the factory sector as firms face softer demand, tighter financial conditions, and elevated inventory levels.
Market impact: Mildly bearish for USD; stagnant production points to ongoing softness in the manufacturing sector.
U.S. business activity cooled slightly in November, though both composite and services PMIs remained comfortably in expansion territory.
The S&P Global Composite PMI slipped to 54.2, below expectations of 54.8 and down from 54.6, indicating a modest slowdown in overall private-sector momentum.
The S&P Global Services PMI also eased to 54.1, missing expectations of 55.0 and lower than the previous 54.8, reflecting softer new orders and a slight moderation in service-sector output.
Despite the pullback, both indicators remain well above the 50 threshold, signalling continued resilience in U.S. economic activity.
Market impact: Neutral for USD; PMIs remain strong but softer readings may reinforce expectations of Fed easing.
U.S. auto demand improved in September, with gains across both passenger cars and trucks.
All Car Sales rose to 2.65 million, slightly above the previous 2.61 million, signalling steady stabilization in the car segment after months of uneven demand.
All Truck Sales increased to 13.63 million, up from 13.40 million, reflecting strong momentum in the dominant light-truck and SUV market.
Overall vehicle strength highlights resilient consumer appetite despite high financing costs.
Market impact: Mildly bullish for USD; firmer auto demand supports consumption and broader economic activity.
U.S. total vehicle sales increased to 15.60 million (annualized) in November, above expectations of 15.40 million and higher than the previous 15.30 million. The steady improvement reflects resilient consumer demand, continued incentives from automakers, and easing supply constraints heading into the holiday season.
Market impact: Mildly bullish for USD; stronger vehicle sales support consumer-spending momentum and overall economic resilience.
U.S. mortgage markets softened last week despite a slight decline in borrowing costs.
The MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate fell to 6.32% from 6.40%, marking continued easing in mortgage rates, but overall demand remained weak.
Application data showed mixed performance:
The data suggest that while falling rates are beginning to offer relief, higher home prices and affordability pressures continue to curb mortgage demand.
Market impact: Neutral for USD; softer mortgage activity reflects housing-sector headwinds, but lower rates support the Fed’s disinflation narrative.
U.S. trade price data showed little movement in September.
Both the Export Price Index (MoM) and Import Price Index (MoM) were flat at 0.0%, missing expectations of 0.1% increases and signalling soft price momentum in global trade.
However, annual export prices told a different story:
Overall, the data indicate subdued monthly movements but firmer year-on-year trends, especially in exports.
Market impact: Neutral for USD; steady prices reinforce a muted inflation trend in traded goods.
U.S. services activity improved modestly in November, with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rising to 52.6, above expectations of 52.0 and slightly higher than 52.4 previously — signalling steady expansion in the services sector.
Key components showed a mixed picture:
Overall, the services sector remains in moderate expansion, but slowing new orders and weak employment highlight underlying fragility.
Market impact: Neutral to mildly bearish for USD; firmer headline PMI offsets concerns, but weaker demand and soft hiring keep Fed-cut expectations in play.
U.S. total vehicle sales strengthened in November, rising to 15.60 million (annualized), above expectations of 15.50 million and up from the previous 15.30 million. The improvement reflects resilient consumer demand, ongoing discounting by automakers, and easing supply-chain constraints heading into year-end.
Market impact: Mildly bullish for USD; stronger auto sales support the outlook for consumer spending and overall economic momentum.
Investors have also been pricing in a more dovish Fed outlook, on the view that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, reportedly the frontrunner to become the next chair, would deliver further rate cuts once he succeeds Jerome Powell.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he would announce his Fed chief nominee early next year, and that he has narrowed the list to one person.
"Hassett is dovish on monetary policy and closely aligned with President Trump. His appointment can therefore dent the FOMC’s perceived independence, a negative for the USD," said Kristina Clifton, senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose sharply to 47.9, well above expectations of 44.1 and up from the previous 43.9. The great improvement reflects rising confidence in economic conditions, supported by easing inflation, resilient labor markets, and growing expectations of Fed rate cuts. Although the index remains just below the 50 optimism threshold, the upward momentum signals improving sentiment heading into year-end.
Market impact: Mildly bullish for USD and U.S. equities; stronger sentiment supports risk appetite and reinforces confidence in the economic outlook.