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The Chicago PMI fell sharply to 49.2 in April, well below the 54.8 forecast and down from the previous 52.8. The reading moved back below the 50 expansion line, signaling renewed weakness in regional business activity.

The U.S. Leading Index also weakened, falling 0.6% MoM in February, worse than the -0.2% forecast and down from the previous 0.0% reading.

Importance Level: High for Chicago PMI; Medium for U.S. Leading Index

Possible Market Effect:

Weaker activity data may pressure cyclical equities and soften U.S. growth expectations. However, with inflation still elevated, the market impact may be mixed because weaker growth does not automatically imply faster Fed easing.

Source: ISM Chicago / MNI Indicators; The Conference Board

U.S. Personal Spending rose 0.9% MoM in March, matching the 0.9% forecast and accelerating from 0.6% previously. Personal Income increased 0.6%, beating the 0.3% forecast and improving from 0.0% previously. However, Real Personal Consumption rose only 0.2%, softer than the previous 0.3%.

Quarterly figures were mixed. Real Consumer Spending rose 1.6% in Q1, slowing from 1.9%, while GDP Sales increased 1.6%, up strongly from 0.3% previously.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect:

Strong nominal spending and income growth may support consumer-sector equities, but softer real consumption shows inflation is still limiting purchasing-power gains. The data may reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance if demand remains resilient.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 189K, below the 213K forecast and down from 215K previously. Continuing Jobless Claims declined to 1,785K, below the 1,820K forecast and lower than the previous 1,808K. The 4-week average also eased to 207.50K from 211.00K.

Labor-cost data were firmer. The Employment Cost Index rose 0.9% QoQ in Q1, above the 0.8% forecast and stronger than the previous 0.7%. Employment Wages increased 0.80%, up from 0.70%, while Employment Benefits rose 1.20%, up from 0.80%.

Importance Level: High

Possible Market Effect:

Lower jobless claims point to a resilient labor market, while stronger employment costs may keep wage-driven inflation risks alive. This combination is likely supportive for the U.S. dollar and yields, but less supportive for equities hoping for faster Fed easing.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Core PCE Price Index rose 3.2% YoY in March, matching the 3.2% forecast but accelerating from 3.0% previously. On a monthly basis, Core PCE increased 0.3%, in line with forecast and softer than the previous 0.4%.

Headline PCE Price Index rose 3.5% YoY, matching forecast and up from 2.8% previously. Monthly PCE increased 0.7%, in line with forecast and stronger than the previous 0.4%. Quarterly inflation signals were also firm: Core PCE Prices rose 4.30% in Q1, above the 4.10% forecast and sharply higher than 2.70% previously, while PCE Prices rose 4.5%, up from 2.9%. The GDP Price Index increased 3.6%, below the 3.8% forecast and slightly softer than 3.7% previously.

Importance Level: High

Possible Market Effect:

Sticky PCE inflation may support a higher-for-longer Fed outlook, keeping upward pressure on Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. The data may weigh on rate-sensitive equities if markets reduce expectations for policy easing.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he will remain on the Federal Reserve Board as a governor after his term as chair ends, though he plans to keep a “low profile” and does not intend to become a “high-profile dissident.” His comments came as the U.S. Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s preferred successor, to a full Senate confirmation vote.

Powell said he welcomed the Justice Department’s decision to drop its investigation into the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters, but explained that he wants to stay at the central bank because of concerns over continued “legal attacks” and risks to Fed independence.

RSM US chief economist Joseph Brusuelas said Powell’s final meeting as chair may signal a period of policy disagreement inside the FOMC, especially as oil and energy shocks risk creating persistent inflation just as a new Fed chair with a presumed bias toward rate cuts prepares to take over.

Importance Level: High

Possible Market Effect:

Powell’s decision to remain as governor may provide institutional continuity, but the leadership transition to Warsh could increase uncertainty over the Fed’s future policy direction. Markets may become more sensitive to signs of internal division within the FOMC, especially if oil-driven inflation pressures conflict with expectations of rate cuts.

Source: Federal Reserve; U.S. Senate Banking Committee; RSM US / X

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he plans to remain on the Federal Reserve Board as a governor after his term as chair ends in May, while keeping a “low profile” and avoiding the role of a “high-profile dissident.” Powell said he wants to stay until legal attacks on the central bank stop, adding that he sees the Fed’s independence as being at risk.

Powell is widely expected to be replaced as Fed chair by former Fed governor and President Donald Trump’s preferred candidate, Kevin Warsh. Warsh cleared a U.S. Senate Banking Committee vote on Wednesday and now faces a final confirmation vote.

Importance Level: High

Possible Market Effect:

Powell staying on as governor could add continuity at the Fed, but the expected leadership transition to Warsh may increase market focus on future policy direction. Any perception that Fed independence is under pressure could affect Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and equity risk sentiment.

Source: Federal Reserve; U.S. Senate Banking Committee

The Federal Reserve kept its key policy rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, as widely expected, in what is anticipated to be the final interest-rate decision under current Chair Jerome Powell.

The decision showed unusually deep internal disagreement, with the highest number of dissents since 1992. One policymaker preferred a 25-basis-point rate cut, while three policymakers opposed including an easing bias in the FOMC statement “at this time.”

The Fed’s decision comes as surging oil prices linked to the Iran war have started feeding into U.S. headline inflation. At the same time, the labor market remains in a “low hire, low fire” environment, leaving policymakers caught between inflation risk and slower labor-market momentum.

Importance Level: High

Possible Market Effect:

The Fed’s hold was expected, but the unusually divided vote may increase market uncertainty around the next policy step. Higher oil-driven inflation risks could support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, while the easing-bias debate may keep equities sensitive to Powell’s guidance and incoming inflation data.

Source: Federal Reserve / FOMC

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q1 remained at 1.2%, matching the forecast and unchanged from the previous reading. The stable estimate suggests no major shift in near-term U.S. growth tracking.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect:

A steady GDPNow reading may have limited immediate market impact, but it keeps the U.S. growth outlook stable ahead of key Fed signals and major economic releases.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

The U.S. Goods Trade Balance widened to -87.87B in March, weaker than the -87.50B forecast and deeper than the previous -83.50B deficit. Meanwhile, Retail Inventories excluding autos rose 0.5%, up from 0.4%, and Wholesale Inventories increased 1.4%, above the 0.4% forecast and the previous 0.9%.

Importance Level: Medium for Goods Trade Balance; Low for inventories

Possible Market Effect:

A wider goods trade deficit may weigh slightly on GDP tracking if imports outpace exports. Higher inventories could support near-term supply availability, but if demand softens, inventory accumulation may become a margin risk for retailers and wholesalers.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Durable Goods Orders rose 0.8% MoM in March, beating the 0.4% forecast and reversing the previous -1.2% decline. Core Durable Goods Orders increased 0.9%, also above the 0.4% forecast, though below the previous 1.2% gain.

Business investment signals were stronger. Non-defense goods orders excluding aircraft rose 3.3% MoM, well above the 0.5% forecast and the previous 1.6%. However, durables excluding defense fell 0.3%, compared with the previous -1.2%.

Importance Level: High for Durable Goods and Core Durable Goods; Low for subcomponents

Possible Market Effect:

The stronger durable goods data may support the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and cyclical equities by pointing to firmer business spending. However, the mixed subcomponents suggest markets may wait for confirmation from broader manufacturing and investment data.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. housing data showed a mixed construction picture. Housing Starts rose to 1.502M in March, beating the 1.380M forecast and rising from 1.398M previously. On a monthly basis, starts increased 10.8%, compared with the previous 1.8% gain. However, Building Permits fell to 1.372M, below the 1.390M forecast and down from 1.386M, while monthly permits dropped 10.8%, reversing the previous 10.9% gain.

February revisions were also mixed. Building Permits were revised to 1.538M from 1.386M, while Housing Starts were revised to 1.356M from 1.398M. February housing starts fell 3.0% MoM, compared with the previous 7.2% increase, while February building permits rose 10.9% MoM, reversing the previous -4.7% decline.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect:

The stronger March housing starts may support homebuilder sentiment, but the sharp fall in permits signals weaker future construction activity. The mixed data may keep housing-sensitive stocks and mortgage-linked assets tied closely to Treasury yield moves.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

The U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate rose to 6.37% from 6.35%, while MBA Mortgage Applications fell 1.6% WoW, reversing the previous 7.9% increase. The broader Mortgage Market Index slipped to 298.5 from 303.3, and the Mortgage Refinance Index fell to 977.9 from 1,023.1. However, the MBA Purchase Index improved to 177.7 from 175.6.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

Higher mortgage rates and weaker applications may pressure housing-linked sentiment, especially homebuilders and mortgage-sensitive stocks. The rise in the purchase index partly softens the negative signal.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association