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U.S. housing data sent a mixed signal. Building permits were strong in February at 1.538M, matching the 1.538M forecast and rising from 1.386M, with monthly growth of 11.0%, slightly above the 10.9% forecast. However, March permits fell to 1.363M, below the 1.372M forecast and down from 1.538M, with monthly permits dropping 11.4%, weaker than the expected 10.8% decline.

New home sales were stronger. February sales rose to 635K from 587K, with monthly growth of 8.9% after a previous 17.6% decline. March sales improved further to 682K, beating the 652K forecast and rising from 583K, while monthly sales increased 7.4% after a previous 19.9% drop.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: Stronger new home sales may support homebuilder sentiment, but weaker March permits point to caution in future construction activity. Housing-sensitive stocks may react selectively.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

The U.S. trade deficit came in at $60.30B in March, slightly better than the $61.00B forecast but wider than the previous $57.80B deficit. Exports rose to $320.90B from $314.70B, while imports also increased to $381.20B from $372.40B.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: A slightly better-than-forecast deficit may be modestly positive for GDP tracking, but the rise in imports shows domestic demand remained strong enough to keep the external gap wide.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau / Bureau of Economic Analysis

The U.S. Treasury released its quarterly financing estimates on Monday, shifting investor focus to this week’s refunding announcement and the government’s funding needs for the second and third quarters. The Treasury now expects to borrow $189 billion in Q2 2026, which is $79 billion more than its February estimate, mainly due to weaker-than-expected cash flows. It also projected $671 billion in borrowing for Q3 and an end-September cash balance of $950 billion.

Bond investors are now focused on Wednesday’s refunding announcement, which will detail auction sizes for 3-year notes, 10-year notes, and 30-year bonds. The Treasury is widely expected to keep coupon auction sizes unchanged for a ninth consecutive quarter, but analysts are watching whether officials prepare the market for larger coupon issuance later this year or in 2027.

The bigger uncertainty is the tariff-refund shock. Following the Supreme Court’s ruling against Trump’s broad tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, refunds to importers could total about $166 billion. Reuters reported that the first refunds are expected around May 11, while about 1.74 million accepted entries had already reached the refund process as of April 26.

Possible Market Effect: Higher borrowing needs and uncertainty around tariff refunds may keep Treasury yields sensitive to refunding guidance. If markets expect larger future coupon issuance, the yield curve could steepen, especially in the 5-year to 7-year sector, while equities may face pressure if rising term premium tightens financial conditions.

Source: U.S. Treasury, Reuters

U.S. stock futures were slightly positive early Tuesday as investors assessed Washington’s effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, persistent oil-price pressure, and a busy week of economic data and corporate earnings. Updated futures pricing showed Dow Jones futures at 49,130.00, up 51.00 points or 0.10%, S&P 500 futures at 7,239.25, up 9.00 points or 0.12%, and Nasdaq 100 futures at 27,832.75, up 56.75 points or 0.20%.

The modest futures rebound came after Wall Street closed lower on Monday. The S&P 500 fell 29.37 points, or 0.4%, to 7,200.75; the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 557.37 points, or 1.1%, to 48,941.90; and the Nasdaq Composite declined 46.64 points, or 0.2%, to 25,067.80.

Sentiment remained fragile because oil prices stayed well above pre-war levels after renewed tensions around Hormuz and the Iran conflict. Reuters reported that U.S. markets closed lower Monday as Middle East concerns outweighed strong first-quarter earnings, with energy stocks outperforming while most other sectors declined.

Possible Market Effect: A small rise in futures suggests investors are not fully abandoning risk assets, but the rally remains vulnerable to oil, yields, and geopolitical headlines. If Hormuz tensions keep crude elevated, inflation concerns could limit equity upside even if earnings remain supportive.

Source: AP, Reuters, Investing.com

The U.S. 3-month bill auction yield rose to 3.610% from 3.590%, while the 6-month bill auction yield also increased to 3.610% from 3.590%. The small rise shows short-end Treasury pricing remains firm as markets continue to monitor inflation risk and Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: Slightly higher bill yields may support the dollar at the margin and keep cash-like instruments attractive, while limiting risk appetite if short-term rates stay elevated.

Source: U.S. Treasury

U.S. factory orders rose 1.5% MoM in March, beating the 0.5% forecast and improving from 0.3% previously. Factory orders excluding transportation increased 1.6% MoM, matching the previous 1.6% reading.

Durables excluding transportation rose 0.9% MoM, unchanged from the previous 0.9%. Durables excluding defense fell 0.3% MoM, matching both the forecast and the previous reading of -0.3%. The headline was stronger than expected, but the detailed components suggest a more balanced picture.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: Strong factory orders may support U.S. industrial stocks and reinforce the view that manufacturing demand remains resilient. However, unchanged durable-goods components may limit the upside impact on growth expectations.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. total vehicle sales fell to 15.90M in April, below the 16.00M forecast and down from 16.30M previously. Passenger car sales slipped to 2.60M from 2.64M, while truck sales declined to 13.32M from 13.53M.

The data shows softer auto demand across both cars and trucks, suggesting consumers may be becoming more cautious as financing costs remain elevated.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: Weaker vehicle sales may be negative for U.S. auto stocks and consumer-discretionary sentiment, especially if higher interest rates continue to pressure vehicle affordability.

Source: U.S. auto industry sales data / Bureau of Economic Analysis

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q2 eased to 3.5%, below the 3.7% forecast and the previous 3.7% reading. The decline shows a modest downgrade in near-term U.S. growth tracking, but the estimate still points to a solid pace of economic expansion.

Importance Level: High

Possible Market Effect:

A softer GDPNow estimate may slightly reduce growth optimism, but the still-strong 3.5% reading could keep support under the U.S. dollar and cyclical equities if inflation pressures remain elevated.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

U.S. manufacturing data showed a mixed picture in April. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5, beating the 54.0 forecast and improving from the previous 54.0, signaling stronger factory activity.

However, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, below the 53.1 forecast and unchanged from the previous 52.7. Price pressure strengthened sharply, with ISM Manufacturing Prices rising to 84.6, above the 80.0 forecast and higher than the previous 78.3. Meanwhile, ISM Manufacturing Employment fell to 46.4, missing the 49.0 forecast and down from 48.7, showing contraction in factory employment.

Importance Level: High for headline PMIs; Medium for prices and employment components

Possible Market Effect:

The data may support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields because manufacturing remains in expansion while price pressures are rising. However, weaker employment inside the ISM report could limit the positive growth signal and keep equity markets cautious.

Source: S&P Global; Institute for Supply Management

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet declined to 6,700B, down from 6,707B. Meanwhile, reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks increased slightly to 2.919T, compared with the previous 2.915T.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect:

A smaller Fed balance sheet points to continued liquidity drainage, while the slight rise in reserve balances suggests banking-system liquidity remains stable. The data may have limited immediate impact but remains important for money-market conditions and risk-asset liquidity.

Source: Federal Reserve

Mexico’s fiscal balance deteriorated to -110.10B in March, compared with the previous -50.73B. The wider deficit points to a weaker monthly fiscal position and higher pressure on public finances.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

A larger fiscal deficit may weigh mildly on Mexican bond sentiment and the peso if investors become more concerned about fiscal discipline. The direct market impact is likely limited unless the deterioration persists.

Source: Ministry of Finance and Public Credit of Mexico

U.S. short-term bill auction yields moved slightly higher. The 4-Week Bill Auction yield rose to 3.600% from 3.595%, while the 8-Week Bill Auction yield increased to 3.620% from 3.605%.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

The small rise in short-term bill yields suggests slightly firmer front-end funding rates, but the market impact is likely limited unless the move continues across other short-duration Treasury auctions.

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury