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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیU.S. financial data showed higher short-term borrowing costs and a larger money supply, keeping attention on liquidity and rate expectations.
The 2-year Note Auction yield rose to 4.189%, up from 4.071% previously. A higher auction yield suggests investors demanded more compensation to hold short-term U.S. government debt, consistent with market concerns about higher-for-longer Federal Reserve policy.
Meanwhile, M2 Money Supply increased to 23.05T in May, up from 22.80T previously. Higher M2 can signal improving liquidity conditions, but if demand remains firm, it may also keep inflation concerns alive.
Importance Level: Medium
Possible Market Effect:
The higher 2-year yield is supportive for the U.S. dollar and negative for rate-sensitive assets such as gold, growth stocks, and long-duration technology shares. The rise in M2 may support liquidity, but it could also complicate the inflation outlook if money growth accelerates further.
Market Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar / USD: Buy / Positive, because higher short-term yields support the dollar.
U.S. Treasury Yields: Buy / Positive, as the 2-year auction yield increased.
Gold / XAUUSD: Sell / Negative, because higher yields reduce demand for non-yielding assets.
Nasdaq 100: Neutral to Sell, as higher short-term yields can pressure growth valuations.
Q: What happened to the U.S. 2-year Note Auction yield?
A: The yield rose to 4.189%, up from 4.071% previously.
Q: What happened to U.S. M2 Money Supply in May?
A: M2 Money Supply increased to 23.05T, compared with 22.80T previously.
Source: Economic calendar data; U.S. Treasury auction and money-supply data.
U.S. regional activity data weakened in June, with the Richmond Fed indicators showing softer manufacturing momentum and a sharp deterioration in services.
The Richmond Manufacturing Index fell to 4, below the 8 forecast and down from 13 previously. Manufacturing shipments also slowed sharply to 3, compared with 16 in the prior reading. The Richmond Services Index dropped to -1, down from 14, signaling a clear loss of momentum in regional service-sector activity.
The data suggests that U.S. business conditions remain uneven. While manufacturing stayed slightly positive, the sharp fall in services and shipments points to cooling demand at the regional level.
Importance Level: Low to Medium
Possible Market Effect:
The weaker Richmond data may slightly pressure U.S. growth sentiment, especially if confirmed by broader regional surveys. However, because recent national PMI data was stronger, the market impact may remain limited unless more indicators begin to weaken.
Market Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar / USD: Neutral, because weaker regional data offsets stronger national activity signals.
U.S. Treasury Yields: Neutral to Sell, if markets focus on softer growth momentum.
Wall Street: Neutral, as weaker regional data may be balanced by stronger national PMIs.
Q: Did the Richmond Manufacturing Index beat expectations in June?
A: No. The index came in at 4, below the 8 forecast and down from 13 previously.
Q: What was the weakest part of the Richmond data?
A: The Richmond Services Index was the weakest, falling to -1 from 14.
Source: Economic calendar data; Richmond Fed regional activity indicators.
On June 23, 2026, the US money supply (M2) increased to $23.05 trillion, up from $22.80 trillion in the previous period. This growth in money supply indicates a continued expansion of liquidity in the economy, which may influence inflationary pressures and consumer spending patterns moving forward.
Possible Market Effect: The increase in money supply may lead to inflation concerns among investors.
Q&A:
Q: What was the US money supply (M2) on June 23, 2026?
A: The money supply was $23.05 trillion.
Q: How does the current money supply compare to the previous amount?
A: The current money supply increased from $22.80 trillion to $23.05 trillion.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - The growth in money supply suggests ongoing liquidity but raises potential inflation concerns.
The United States held a 6-week bill auction on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, with the yield coming in at 3.620%. This represents a slight increase from the previous auction yield of 3.600%. The auction results are part of the ongoing efforts by the U.S. Treasury to manage its short-term borrowing needs. Investors continue to monitor these yields as they reflect the current market sentiment and expectations regarding interest rates.
Possible Market Effect: Neutral
Q&A:
Q: What was the yield for the US 6-week bill auction on June 23, 2026?
A: The yield was 3.620%.
Q: How does the current yield compare to the previous auction?
A: The current yield increased from the previous auction's yield of 3.600%.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - The slight increase in yield indicates stable investor sentiment without significant market movement.
U.S. weekly ADP employment data improved, suggesting that labor demand remains resilient despite tighter financial conditions.
The ADP Employment Change Weekly rose to 30.75K, up from the previous 25.50K. The increase points to firmer hiring momentum and may reinforce the view that the U.S. labor market is still strong enough to support household income and consumption.
Importance Level: Medium
Possible Market Effect:
Stronger employment data may support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields because it reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease policy. However, for equities, the effect can be mixed: stronger labor demand supports growth, but it may also keep rate-hike expectations alive.
Market Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar / USD: Buy / Positive, because stronger labor data supports hawkish Fed expectations.
U.S. Treasury Yields: Neutral to Buy, as firm employment can keep rate expectations elevated.
Wall Street: Neutral, because stronger growth is positive, but higher-rate risk may limit upside.
Q: Did U.S. weekly ADP employment improve?
A: Yes. ADP Employment Change Weekly rose to 30.75K, up from 25.50K previously.
Q: Is stronger ADP employment positive for the U.S. dollar?
A: Yes. It is Buy / Positive for USD because resilient labor data can support tighter Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Source: Economic calendar data.
U.S. retail sales momentum improved, with the Redbook index showing stronger annual growth.
The Redbook index rose 10.0% year-on-year, up from 9.4% previously. The stronger reading suggests consumer spending remains firm, especially in chain-store and retail sales activity.
This is important because resilient consumption can support U.S. growth, but it can also keep inflation concerns alive if demand remains too strong.
Importance Level: Medium
Possible Market Effect:
Stronger retail activity may support consumer-discretionary and retail stocks, while also backing the U.S. dollar and yields if investors see firm demand as a reason for the Fed to stay hawkish.
Market Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar / USD: Neutral to Buy, because stronger consumption supports growth and Fed-hike expectations.
U.S. Retail Stocks: Neutral to Buy, as stronger sales momentum supports revenue outlooks.
S&P 500: Neutral, because stronger demand helps earnings but may keep rate risks elevated.
Q: Did U.S. Redbook sales improve?
A: Yes. The Redbook index rose 10.0% year-on-year, up from 9.4% previously.
Q: Why does stronger Redbook data matter for markets?
A: It suggests U.S. consumer demand remains strong, which supports growth but may also keep inflation and Fed-policy concerns alive.
Source: Economic calendar data.
U.S. preliminary June PMI data came in stronger than expected, showing that private-sector activity continued to expand.
The S&P Global Services PMI rose to 51.3, above the 51.1 forecast and higher than the previous 50.7 reading. The Manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.7, beating the 54.6 forecast and rising from 55.1 previously. The Composite PMI increased to 52.2, up from 51.5.
The data shows that the U.S. private sector remains in expansion, with manufacturing delivering the strongest signal. This supports the view that the economy is still resilient, even as markets face pressure from higher interest-rate expectations.
Importance Level: High
Possible Market Effect:
Stronger PMI data may support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields because it strengthens the case for a resilient economy and reduces the urgency for policy easing. For equities, the signal is mixed: stronger activity supports earnings expectations, but it may also increase concerns that the Fed will keep policy restrictive for longer.
Market Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar / USD: Buy / Positive, because stronger PMIs support hawkish Fed expectations.
S&P 500: Neutral to Buy, as stronger activity supports earnings, but rate risk remains.
Nasdaq 100: Neutral, because strong growth is positive, but higher yields can pressure technology valuations.
U.S. Treasury Yields: Buy / Positive, if stronger activity reinforces rate-hike expectations.
Gold / XAUUSD: Sell / Negative, because stronger U.S. data, a firmer dollar, and higher yields can pressure non-yielding assets.
Q: Did U.S. June PMI data beat expectations?
A: Yes. Services PMI rose to 51.3, Manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.7, and Composite PMI increased to 52.2.
Q: What was the strongest part of the U.S. PMI report?
A: Manufacturing was the strongest part, with the PMI rising to 55.7, above the 54.6 forecast.
Q: Is stronger U.S. PMI data positive for the dollar?
A: Yes. It is Buy / Positive for USD because stronger activity can support higher-for-longer Fed policy expectations.
Q: Is stronger U.S. PMI data good or bad for Wall Street?
A: It is mixed. Stronger activity supports earnings, but it can also keep Treasury yields and rate-hike expectations elevated.
Source: Economic calendar data; S&P Global preliminary PMI data.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday evening that he is preparing lawsuits against ABC over what he called false reporting about his administration’s handling of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, D.C.
Trump said in a social media post that ABC had failed to report spending by previous administrations in its coverage of the pool. He claimed past administrations had spent $300 million to $400 million on the project, while his administration’s renovation cost more than $16 million.
The Reflecting Pool has become a political controversy after it developed algae and peeling paint shortly after a major renovation that cost more than $16 million, reportedly about $4 million above initial estimates. Trump blamed the problems on vandalism and claimed the pool had been damaged “very violently,” though he did not provide detailed evidence in the post.
Trump also criticized ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl, accusing him of trying to damage the pool. Separately, administration officials said at least five people had been arrested on vandalism-related charges connected to the site.
The dispute adds to Trump’s broader conflict with major media outlets that he says portray his administration unfairly. Trump also referred to a previous $16 million defamation-related payment involving ABC, using it to argue that he may pursue further legal action.
Importance Level: Medium
Possible Market Effect:
The immediate market impact is limited because the dispute is political and media-related rather than macroeconomic. However, repeated legal fights between the White House and major media organizations can raise concerns about political risk, press freedom, and regulatory pressure on media companies. If legal action becomes formal, investor focus may turn to Disney, ABC’s parent company, though the financial impact would likely remain limited unless damages or regulatory pressure become material.
Market Sentiment:
Disney / ABC: Neutral to Sell, because legal pressure and public criticism from the White House may weigh on sentiment, though direct financial risk is still unclear.
U.S. Political Risk Sentiment: Neutral to Negative, as another media dispute adds to institutional and political tension.
U.S. Dollar: Neutral, because the story has little direct impact on monetary policy or macro fundamentals.
U.S. Equities: Neutral, as the issue is unlikely to move broad indices unless it expands into a wider media-regulatory conflict.
Q: What did Trump say about ABC on Monday evening?
A: Trump said he was preparing lawsuits against ABC over what he described as false reporting about the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.
Q: Why is the Reflecting Pool controversial?
A: The pool developed algae and peeling paint shortly after a major renovation that cost more than $16 million, leading to criticism and political dispute.
Q: What did Trump claim about previous spending on the Reflecting Pool?
A: Trump claimed previous administrations spent $300 million to $400 million on the pool, while his renovation cost more than $16 million.
Q: Could this affect Disney or ABC financially?
A: The immediate impact is likely limited, but formal litigation or regulatory pressure could create negative sentiment around Disney and ABC.
Q: Is the market sentiment for Disney/ABC buy, sell, or neutral?
A: The sentiment is Neutral to Sell, because the legal threat adds reputational and political pressure, but direct financial damage is not yet clear.
Source: The Independent, Reuters, The Guardian, ABC-related reporting, and Trump’s social media comments.
Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15% after the U.S.-Iran agreement, with chief economist Jan Hatzius citing lower downside risks to the economic outlook and stronger underlying labor-market resilience.
The new 15% recession probability is back at Goldman’s long-term norm and below the firm’s 20% estimate on the eve of the conflict. Hatzius said the improvement reflects not only reduced geopolitical risk after the agreement, but also a stronger labor-market backdrop than before.
Goldman also raised its second-half U.S. GDP growth forecast to 2%, pointing to a positive real-income impulse from lower gasoline prices. The bank said the economy is still benefiting from the AI boom through higher equity wealth and strong capital expenditure.
However, Goldman’s outlook is not fully bullish. Hatzius warned that growth will remain moderate, with real consumer spending expected to rise only 1.5% as the earlier boost from higher second-quarter tax refunds fades.
On inflation, Goldman expects seasonally adjusted consumer prices to decline outright in June as gasoline prices fall sharply. The bank also expects core CPI to average only 0.17% over the next three months, suggesting softer near-term inflation momentum.
For the Federal Reserve, Goldman kept its baseline forecast for no rate hikes, despite a more hawkish-than-expected FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh. The bank noted that roughly half of the policymakers projecting hikes are non-voting Federal Reserve Bank presidents.
Goldman also warned that AI-related stock valuations are now high even compared with its optimistic view of AI’s long-term economic value, making it harder to justify another large leg higher in AI equities.
Importance Level: High
Possible Market Effect:
Goldman’s lower recession-risk estimate is positive for U.S. risk sentiment because it reduces fears of a near-term downturn. Lower gasoline prices and softer inflation expectations could also support real income and reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike again. However, the warning on AI valuations may limit upside for Nasdaq and mega-cap technology stocks, especially after recent weakness in high-growth names.
Market Sentiment:
S&P 500: Neutral to Buy, because recession risk has fallen and GDP expectations improved, but valuation risk remains.
Nasdaq 100: Neutral, because the AI boom still supports growth, but Goldman’s valuation warning limits upside.
U.S. Dollar: Neutral, as lower recession risk supports risk appetite, while Goldman’s no-hike forecast may cap dollar strength.
U.S. Treasuries: Neutral to Buy, if softer CPI expectations reduce rate-hike pressure.
Gold / XAUUSD: Neutral to Sell, because lower recession risk and reduced geopolitical stress can weaken safe-haven demand.
Oil / WTI: Neutral to Sell, if lower gasoline prices and U.S.-Iran de-escalation reduce inflation and supply-risk premiums.
Q: What is Goldman Sachs’ new 12-month U.S. recession probability?
A: Goldman Sachs cut its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15%, down from 20% before the conflict.
Q: Why did Goldman reduce its U.S. recession probability?
A: Goldman cited reduced downside risks after the U.S.-Iran agreement and stronger underlying labor-market resilience.
Q: What is Goldman’s updated U.S. GDP growth forecast for the second half?
A: Goldman raised its second-half GDP growth forecast to 2%, helped by lower gasoline prices, stronger real income, AI-related equity wealth, and strong capital expenditure.
Q: What does Goldman expect for U.S. inflation?
A: Goldman expects consumer prices to decline in June as gasoline prices fall, while core CPI is expected to average only 0.17% over the next three months.
Q: Is this report positive or negative for U.S. stocks?
A: It is Neutral to Buy for the broader S&P 500 because recession risk is lower, but Neutral for Nasdaq because AI valuations are already high.
Source: Goldman Sachs economic outlook, Jan Hatzius commentary, and market strategy updates.
On Monday, June 22, 2026, the United States conducted its 3-Month and 6-Month Bill Auctions, revealing yields that showed slight increases compared to previous auctions. The 3-Month Bill yield was recorded at 3.695%, up from the previous yield of 3.640%. Meanwhile, the 6-Month Bill yield rose to 3.840%, an increase from the prior yield of 3.680%. These results indicate a gradual upward trend in short-term interest rates, reflecting market adjustments in response to economic conditions.
Possible Market Effect: The slight increase in yields may suggest a cautious market sentiment, potentially leading to a neutral impact on broader financial markets.
Q&A:
Q: What was the yield for the US 3-Month Bill Auction on June 22, 2026?
A: The yield for the US 3-Month Bill Auction was 3.695%.
Q: What was the yield for the US 6-Month Bill Auction on June 22, 2026?
A: The yield for the US 6-Month Bill Auction was 3.840%.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - The market is adjusting to slight increases in short-term rates without significant volatility.
Importance: Medium
U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly began a Medal of Honor ceremony by speaking about the stock market and 401(k) retirement accounts, linking the administration’s economic message to market performance and household wealth.
The remarks came as U.S. markets remained highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy signal, rising Treasury yields, and fresh geopolitical developments around the U.S.-Iran framework agreement.
Trump’s focus on stocks and retirement accounts suggests the White House is continuing to frame equity-market performance as a key measure of economic strength and public confidence.
Possible Market Effect:
The direct market impact is limited, but the remarks may reinforce the administration’s pro-market messaging. Investors may interpret the focus on stock-market gains and 401(k)s as a signal that the White House remains attentive to equity performance and household wealth effects.
Market Sentiment:
Source: Provided news line.
Q&A
Q: What did Trump reportedly discuss at the start of the Medal of Honor ceremony?
A: Trump reportedly began by talking about the stock market and 401(k) retirement accounts.
Q: Does this directly affect markets?
A: The direct impact is limited, but it reinforces Trump’s pro-market economic messaging.
Q: Is this positive for Wall Street?
A: It is neutral to mildly positive, mainly because it signals continued political focus on stock-market performance.
On Thursday, June 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet rose to $6.736 trillion, up from the previous figure of $6.725 trillion. This increase reflects the Fed's ongoing monetary policy strategies, although no forecasts were provided for future changes. The data was released at 8:30 PM, highlighting the Fed's efforts to manage liquidity in the economy.
Possible Market Effect: Limited impact on market sentiment due to the low importance of the data.
Q&A:
Q: What was the Federal Reserve's balance sheet on June 18, 2026?
A: The Federal Reserve's balance sheet was $6.736 trillion on June 18, 2026.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - The increase in the balance sheet is minor and does not significantly alter market expectations.