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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیU.S. economic data delivered a mixed signal, with growth estimates weakening while regional business activity and inflation indicators strengthened.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q2 fell to 2.5%, below the 3.0% forecast and down from 3.0% previously. At the same time, the Dallas Fed PCE reading rose to 2.80% in May, up from 2.40%, showing firmer inflation pressure.
Regional activity was stronger. The Kansas City Fed Composite Index rose to 11 from 8, while the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 19 from 9, suggesting manufacturing momentum improved in June. Markets also watched remarks from FOMC member Bowman, as investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s rate-hike path.
Importance Level: Medium
Possible Market Effect:
The weaker GDPNow estimate may slightly reduce growth optimism, but stronger Dallas Fed PCE and Kansas City Fed activity keep inflation and rate-risk concerns alive. The overall signal is mixed but still supportive of a cautious Fed stance.
Market Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar / USD: Neutral to Buy, because stronger inflation and regional activity can support Fed-rate expectations.
U.S. Treasury Yields: Neutral to Buy, as firmer PCE signals may keep yields supported.
S&P 500: Neutral, because lower GDPNow weighs on growth sentiment, while stronger activity supports earnings.
نزدک ۱۰۰: Neutral to Sell, because inflation pressure and higher yields can weigh on growth valuations.
Gold / XAUUSD: Neutral to Sell, as firmer inflation and Fed-risk pricing may support the dollar and yields.
Q: What happened to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for Q2?
A: The estimate fell to 2.5%, below the 3.0% forecast and the previous 3.0% reading.
Q: Did the Dallas Fed PCE reading rise in May?
A: Yes. Dallas Fed PCE increased to 2.80%, up from 2.40% previously.
Q: What did the Kansas City Fed indexes show?
A: The Composite Index rose to 11 from 8, while the Manufacturing Index jumped to 19 from 9.
Source: Economic calendar data; Federal Reserve regional indicators.
U.S. labor-market data showed a mixed picture, with fewer new unemployment claims but higher continuing claims.
Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215K, below the 225K forecast and down from 227K previously. The Jobless Claims 4-Week Average declined slightly to 224.25K, compared with 223.50K previously. However, Continuing Jobless Claims rose to 1,821K, above the 1,800K forecast and the previous 1,800K reading.
The data suggests layoffs remain limited, but unemployed workers may be taking longer to find new jobs.
Importance Level: Medium
Possible Market Effect:
Lower initial claims support the view that the labor market remains resilient, which may help the dollar and yields. But higher continuing claims point to some softening in job-market reabsorption, making the overall signal mixed.
Market Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar / USD: Neutral to Buy, because lower initial claims support labor-market strength.
U.S. Treasury Yields: Neutral to Buy, as resilient labor data can support higher-rate expectations.
Wall Street: Neutral, because stronger labor data supports growth but may keep Fed pressure alive.
Q: What happened to U.S. initial jobless claims?
A: Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215K, below the 225K forecast.
Q: Why was the labor-market report mixed?
A: Initial claims improved, but Continuing Claims rose to 1,821K, above the 1,800K forecast.
Source: Economic calendar data.
U.S. durable goods data for May gave a mixed signal on manufacturing and business investment.
Headline Durable Goods Orders fell 4.5% month-on-month, slightly better than the 5.0% expected decline, but sharply weaker than the previous 8.5% increase. Durables Excluding Defense fell 4.6%, reversing the previous 8.4% gain.
However, underlying investment indicators were stronger. Core Durable Goods Orders rose 1.3%, well above the 0.5% forecast, though slightly below the previous 1.4%. Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air rose 1.6%, beating the 0.6% forecast and improving from the previous 0.7% decline.
The data suggests headline demand was weak, but core business investment remained resilient.
Importance Level: Medium
Possible Market Effect:
The headline drop may pressure industrial sentiment, but stronger core capital goods orders may reduce concerns about a deeper investment slowdown. The market reaction may therefore be mixed for industrials and manufacturing-sensitive assets.
Market Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar / USD: Neutral, because the report was mixed.
U.S. Industrials: Neutral, as headline orders fell but core orders beat forecasts.
S&P 500: Neutral, because the data does not give a clear directional signal.
Treasury Yields: Neutral, as the report is unlikely to shift Fed expectations alone.
Q: Did U.S. durable goods orders fall in May?
A: Yes. Durable Goods Orders fell 4.5%, although the decline was slightly better than the 5.0% forecast drop.
Q: What was the positive part of the durable goods report?
A: Core Durable Goods Orders rose 1.3%, beating the 0.5% forecast, and Non-Defense Ex-Air orders rose 1.6%.
Source: Economic calendar data.
U.S. growth data for Q1 improved, but the details showed a weaker consumer-spending picture.
GDP rose 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, beating the 1.6% forecast and accelerating from the previous 0.5% reading. GDP Sales increased 1.9%, above the 1.5% forecast and much stronger than the previous 0.3%. Corporate Profits rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, beating the -0.4% forecast, though slowing sharply from 4.7% previously.
However, Real Consumer Spending rose only 0.5% in Q1, below the 1.4% forecast and down from 1.9% previously. Meanwhile, inflation measures remained elevated, with PCE Prices rising 4.6%, above the 4.5% forecast, and Core PCE Prices at 4.40%, matching expectations but well above the previous 2.70%. The GDP Price Index rose 3.6%, above the 3.5% forecast.
The report points to stronger headline growth but weaker consumption and persistent price pressure.
Importance Level: High
Possible Market Effect:
Stronger GDP growth supports the dollar and cyclical confidence, but weaker real consumer spending and elevated inflation create a mixed market signal. The data may keep Fed-rate expectations firm because growth improved while inflation stayed high.
Market Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar / USD: Buy / Positive, because GDP beat expectations and inflation remained firm.
U.S. Treasury Yields: Neutral to Buy, as strong growth and price pressure support higher-rate expectations.
S&P 500: Neutral, because growth improved, but consumer spending weakened.
Gold / XAUUSD: Neutral to Sell, as firm inflation and higher yields may weigh on bullion.
Q: Did U.S. Q1 GDP beat expectations?
A: Yes. GDP rose 2.1%, above the 1.6% forecast.
Q: What was the weak part of the Q1 GDP report?
A: Real Consumer Spending rose only 0.5%, below the 1.4% forecast and down from 1.9% previously.
Q: Did inflation measures remain high in Q1?
A: Yes. PCE Prices rose 4.6%, Core PCE Prices were 4.40%, and the GDP Price Index rose 3.6%.
Source: Economic calendar data.
U.S. inflation and consumer data for May showed sticky price pressure alongside stronger household income and spending.
The Core PCE Price Index rose 3.4% year-on-year, matching the 3.4% forecast and rising from 3.3% previously. On a monthly basis, Core PCE increased 0.3%, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous 0.3% reading.
Headline PCE inflation rose 4.1% year-on-year, matching the 4.1% forecast but accelerating from 3.8% previously. Monthly PCE prices increased 0.4%, slightly below the 0.5% forecast but in line with the previous 0.4%.
Consumer fundamentals were stronger. Personal Spending rose 0.7%, above the 0.6% forecast and stronger than the previous 0.4%. Personal Income also rose 0.7%, beating the 0.4% forecast and improving from 0.0% previously. Real Personal Consumption increased 0.3%, up from 0.0%.
The data suggests U.S. households remain resilient, but inflation remains too firm for the Federal Reserve to ignore.
Importance Level: High
Possible Market Effect:
Sticky PCE inflation and stronger spending may support the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields because they reinforce higher-for-longer Fed expectations. For equities, the signal is mixed: stronger consumption supports earnings, but persistent inflation keeps rate pressure alive.
Market Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar / USD: Buy / Positive, because sticky inflation and strong income data support hawkish Fed expectations.
U.S. Treasury Yields: Buy / Positive, as firm inflation can keep rate expectations elevated.
Gold / XAUUSD: Sell / Negative, because stronger inflation and rate expectations support yields and the dollar.
S&P 500: Neutral, because stronger spending supports earnings but rate risk remains.
Nasdaq 100: Neutral to Sell, as higher yields may pressure growth valuations.
Q: What happened to U.S. Core PCE inflation in May?
A: Core PCE rose 3.4% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, both matching forecasts.
Q: Did U.S. personal spending beat expectations?
A: Yes. Personal Spending rose 0.7%, above the 0.6% forecast.
Q: Is this data positive or negative for the Fed outlook?
A: It is hawkish because inflation remains firm and consumer demand is still resilient.
Source: Economic calendar data.
The yield on the US 5-year note auction rose to 4.200% on June 24, 2026, up from the previous yield of 4.182%. This increase indicates a slight uptick in borrowing costs for the government.
Possible Market Effect: Neutral as the yield remains within expected parameters.
Q&A:
Q: What was the yield on the US 5-year note auction on June 24, 2026?
A: The yield on the US 5-year note auction was 4.200% on June 24, 2026.
Q: How does this yield compare to the previous auction?
A: The current yield of 4.200% is higher than the previous yield of 4.182%.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - The increase is expected and does not signal significant market changes.
The yield on the US 2-year floating rate note auction fell to 0.079% on June 24, 2026, down from the previous yield of 0.089%. This slight decrease indicates a minor adjustment in the interest rates for short-term borrowing.
Possible Market Effect: Neutral impact as the yield remains low and within expected ranges.
Q&A:
Q: What was the yield on the US 2-year FRN auction on June 24, 2026?
A: The yield on the US 2-year FRN auction was 0.079% on June 24, 2026.
Q: How does this yield compare to the previous auction?
A: The current yield of 0.079% is lower than the previous yield of 0.089%.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - The decrease in yield is minor and does not indicate significant changes in market conditions.
The yield on the US 17-week bill auction increased to 3.770% on June 24, 2026, up from the previous yield of 3.670%. This rise in yield indicates a slight increase in borrowing costs for the government, reflecting market adjustments to economic conditions.
Possible Market Effect: Neutral impact on the US treasury market as yields rise but remain within expected ranges.
Q&A:
Q: What was the yield on the US 17-week bill auction on June 24, 2026?
A: The yield on the US 17-week bill auction was 3.770% on June 24, 2026.
Q: How does this yield compare to the previous auction?
A: The current yield of 3.770% is higher than the previous yield of 3.670%.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - The increase in yield is expected and does not indicate significant market shifts.
On Wednesday, June 24, 2026, the yield from the US 5-Year Note Auction rose to 4.200%, up from the previous yield of 4.182%. This increase, although modest, reflects ongoing market conditions and investor sentiment towards US government securities. The auction results indicate a stable demand for these notes, which are often viewed as a safe investment during uncertain economic times.
Possible Market Effect: The slight increase in yield may indicate a cautious optimism in the bond market, but overall sentiment remains neutral.
Q&A:
Q: What was the yield of the US 5-Year Note Auction on June 24, 2026?
A: The yield was 4.200%.
Q: How does the current yield compare to the previous auction?
A: The current yield increased from the previous 4.182%.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - The yield increase is minor and reflects stable demand without significant market shifts.
On June 24, 2026, the United States conducted two notable treasury auctions. The 17-week bill auction yielded an interest rate of 3.770%, a slight increase from the previous rate of 3.670%. Meanwhile, the 2-year floating rate note (FRN) auction saw a decrease in yield, coming in at 0.079%, down from 0.089% in the prior auction. These results reflect ongoing fluctuations in the U.S. debt market, as investors adjust to changing economic conditions and interest rate expectations.
Possible Market Effect: The mixed results from the auctions may lead to a cautious sentiment among investors, potentially affecting demand for U.S. treasuries.
Q&A:
Q: What was the yield for the 17-week bill auction in the U.S. on June 24, 2026?
A: The yield for the 17-week bill auction was 3.770%.
Q: How did the yield of the 2-year FRN auction change on June 24, 2026?
A: The yield of the 2-year FRN auction decreased to 0.079% from the previous 0.089%.
Market Sentiment: Neutral - Investors are likely to remain cautious given the mixed results from the treasury auctions.
U.S. business activity strengthened in June, offering a positive signal for the economy even as Wall Street remained under pressure from the technology selloff.
S&P Global’s flash U.S. PMI data showed the headline Composite PMI Output Index rose to 52.2, up from 51.5 in May, reaching a five-month high. The Services PMI Business Activity Index increased to 51.3, compared with 50.7 in May, marking a four-month high and beating consensus estimates.
Manufacturing also showed strong momentum. The Manufacturing Output Index rose to 57.7, beating estimates and recording the fastest growth rate since July 2021.
The stronger PMI data suggests that U.S. private-sector activity remains resilient, despite higher interest-rate concerns and pressure on growth stocks. Investors are now watching revised first-quarter GDP data and the PCE price index, due on Wednesday, for more signals about the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.
Importance Level: High
Possible Market Effect:
Stronger U.S. PMI data may support the dollar and Treasury yields because it reinforces the view that the economy can tolerate tighter monetary policy. For equities, the impact is mixed: stronger business activity supports earnings expectations, but it may also increase concerns that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.
Market Sentiment:
U.S. Dollar / USD: Buy / Positive, because stronger activity data supports Fed-hike expectations.
U.S. Treasury Yields: Buy / Positive, as resilient growth may keep rate expectations elevated.
S&P 500: Neutral, because stronger growth supports earnings but rate risks remain.
Nasdaq 100: Neutral to Sell, as higher yields may continue to pressure growth and technology stocks.
Gold / XAUUSD: Sell / Negative, because stronger U.S. data and higher-rate expectations reduce demand for non-yielding assets.
Q: What happened to the U.S. Composite PMI in June?
A: The Composite PMI rose to 52.2, up from 51.5 in May, reaching a five-month high.
Q: Did U.S. services activity improve?
A: Yes. The Services PMI rose to 51.3, up from 50.7, marking a four-month high.
Q: What was the strongest part of the PMI report?
A: Manufacturing output was the strongest part, with the index rising to 57.7, the fastest growth since July 2021.
Q: Why is the PCE price index important this week?
A: The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, so it may influence expectations for future rate hikes.
Q: Is stronger U.S. PMI data positive or negative for markets?
A: It is mixed. It supports the economy and earnings, but it can also strengthen Fed-hike expectations and pressure rate-sensitive assets.
Source: S&P Global flash PMI data, U.S. economic calendar, and market commentary.
Gold remained under pressure after the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting sharply changed market expectations for U.S. interest rates. Precious-metal traders were still digesting a more hawkish-than-expected Summary of Economic Projections, or dot plot, which showed that at least half of FOMC participants now expect rate hikes this year to fight the inflation shock created by the Iran-war-driven surge in oil prices.
Even though oil prices have fallen in recent weeks, the Fed’s policy outlook has shifted meaningfully. Markets are now looking at the possibility of at least one 25-basis-point rate hike in 2026, compared with the previous expectation of at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a quarter-point rate hike in July has jumped to more than 36%, up sharply from 8.5% one week earlier. Expectations for larger or additional hikes by December have also increased.
The Fed’s message was reinforced by new Chair Kevin Warsh, who outlined a broad reform vision for the central bank and announced five task forces to review key operations linked to monetary policy. Markets interpreted the first FOMC meeting under Warsh as leaving the door open to a more hawkish policy path.
Higher interest-rate expectations are negative for gold because bullion does not generate yield. They also support the U.S. dollar, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers. On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar index climbed to levels not seen since mid-May 2025, adding another layer of pressure on precious metals.
Deutsche Bank’s Michael Hsueh said Fed repricing and resilient U.S. macro data have been the main forces pushing gold lower. He noted that gold began diverging from oil last month, signaling that monetary-policy risk had become the dominant driver. Deutsche Bank’s revised base case sees gold reaching $4,800/oz in Q4 if the Fed stays on hold indefinitely, while a risk scenario involving three to four Fed hikes could pull gold down toward $3,800/oz.
Hsueh also said the first FOMC meeting under Chair Warsh showed no resistance to market pricing for hikes, and that a Taylor-rule prescription points to policy rates around 80 basis points higher. However, the dovish counterargument remains that inflation expectations are falling with oil, the SEP median showed only one hike followed by a reversal next year, and the market has already priced about 48 basis points of tightening through March 2027.
Importance Level: High
Possible Market Effect:
The sharp repricing of Fed policy is a major bearish driver for gold and other non-yielding assets. If markets continue to price more Fed hikes, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields may stay supported, while gold, silver, crypto, and high-growth equities may remain under pressure. However, if inflation data softens or oil continues falling, gold could stabilize as markets reduce the probability of multiple hikes.
Market Sentiment:
Gold / XAUUSD: Sell / Negative, because rising Fed-hike expectations, higher yields, and a stronger dollar are pressuring bullion.
Silver: Sell / Negative, as precious metals remain exposed to the same rate and dollar pressures.
U.S. Dollar / USD: Buy / Positive, because hawkish Fed repricing supports the dollar.
U.S. Treasury Yields: Buy / Positive, as markets price a higher policy-rate path.
Nasdaq 100: Neutral to Sell, because higher yields can pressure growth and AI-linked valuations.
Oil: Neutral to Sell, because falling oil prices reduce the inflation-shock narrative, but the Fed is still reacting to earlier price pressure.
Q: Why are Fed rate-hike bets rising after the June meeting?
A: Fed rate-hike bets are rising because the new SEP dot plot showed at least half of FOMC participants expect hikes this year, and Chair Kevin Warsh did not push back against market pricing for tighter policy.
Q: What changed in the Fed’s policy outlook?
A: Markets shifted from expecting at least two 25-basis-point cuts to expecting at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026.
Q: What is the latest CME FedWatch signal for July?
A: The probability of a quarter-point July rate hike has surged to more than 36%, up from 8.5% one week earlier.
Q: Why is this negative for gold?
A: Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a stronger dollar makes bullion more expensive for non-U.S. buyers.
Q: What are Deutsche Bank’s gold scenarios?
A: Deutsche Bank’s base case sees gold reaching $4,800/oz in Q4 if the Fed stays on hold, while a risk case of three to four Fed hikes could push gold toward $3,800/oz.
Q: Is the current market sentiment for gold buy, sell, or neutral?
A: The sentiment is Sell / Negative, because Fed repricing, stronger U.S. data, higher yields, and a firmer dollar are weighing on gold.
Source: CME FedWatch, Federal Reserve SEP, Deutsche Bank commentary, market data.