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In August 2024, the US Trade Balance saw a decline driven by changes in both exports and imports. Exports rose to $271.80 billion, up from $266.60 billion in July, reflecting strength in sectors such as industrial supplies and capital goods. Meanwhile, imports fell to $342.20 billion, down from $345.40 billion in July, possibly due to reduced demand for consumer goods and lower energy prices.

Despite the rise in exports, the Goods Trade Balance worsened slightly to $-94.9 billion from $-94.3 billion. However, the overall Goods and Services Trade Balance improved marginally to $-70.4 billion, which was slightly better than the $-70.6 in July. The data highlights a mixed trade performance, with robust export growth tempered by reduced import demand.

In September 2024, the NFIB Business Optimism Index for the United States came in at 91.5, slightly below the expected 91.7. This modest decline highlights ongoing challenges faced by small businesses in the U.S. economy, as the index remains below the historical average of 98.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its October Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which covers labor market data from September. The report revealed that the Labor Force Participation Rate remained steady at 62.7% in September, while the U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs, a significant jump from the upwardly revised 159,000 in August. This figure also surpassed consensus estimates of 147,000.

Thanks to this robust hiring, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in August and beating market expectations. Along with the increased hiring, Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) rose by 0.4%, exceeding the forecast of 0.3%, though slightly below August’s upwardly revised 0.5%. On an annual basis (YoY), average hourly earnings increased by 4%, outperforming the 3.8% projections.

The only downside in the report was Average Weekly Hours, which came in at 34.2, slightly below the forecast of 34.3. However, the overall strength of the report has reassured market participants about the continued growth of the U.S. labor market, boosting both the U.S. dollar and stock markets.

According to the ISM report, the US Services PMI surged to 54.9, exceeding the 71.7 estimates and improving from 51.5 in August, reflecting stronger growth in the service sector. Additionally, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index increased to 59.4, up from 57.3, indicating rising prices. However, the Employment Index in the services sector dropped to 48.1, down from 50.2, signaling job losses.

In contrast, the S&P Global Services PMI missed the 55.4 expectations, coming in at 55.2, down from 55.7 in August. The S&P Global Composite PMI, which combines services and manufacturing data, also fell short of estimates, landing at 54.0 compared to 54.4 expected, down from 54.6 in the previous month.

This divergence between the ISM and S&P Global figures highlights different assessments of the US economy’s growth trajectory, with ISM showing more optimism, particularly in services, while S&P Global reflects a slight slowdown in momentum.

According to data from the US Department of Labor (DOL), 225,000 Americans filed for initial unemployment benefits during the week ending September 28, slightly above market expectations of 220,000. This marks an increase from the previous week’s revised figure of 219,000 (originally reported as 218,000).

Additional details from the report showed that the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.2%, while the four-week moving average of claims dropped by 750, bringing it to 224,250.

The DOL also reported that the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for the week ending September 21 was 1.826 million, a slight decrease of 1,000 from the prior week’s revised level.

This moderate rise in jobless claims suggests ongoing labor market stability, despite recent fluctuations in economic indicators.

The ADP National Employment Report, released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, showed stronger-than-expected growth in private payrolls. U.S. private employers added 143,000 jobs in September, following an upwardly revised increase of 103,000 in August. This solid increase in hiring signals continued strength in the U.S. labor market, despite recent concerns about a broader economic slowdown. These figures come ahead of Friday's highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report, which could offer further insights into the labor market's health and influence Federal Reserve policy decisions.

The release of the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday followed government data on Tuesday that showed there were 1.13 job openings for every unemployed person in August compared to 1.08 in July.

Tesla is expected to post its strongest quarterly delivery numbers in three years, with analysts forecasting a significant rebound after consecutive quarters of declining sales. According to Gary Black, Managing Partner at Future Fund LLC, Tesla is poised to deliver a beat in its third-quarter report, with estimates suggesting deliveries could reach 461,978 units. This would mark a year-over-year growth of 6.19% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 4.06%. The anticipated recovery follows drops of 9% in Q1 and 5% in Q2, positioning Tesla for a potential turnaround in performance. The official report is expected before the market opens on Wednesday.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, Buncombe County in North Carolina has reported over 1,000 people unaccounted for, with 30 confirmed deaths so far. This county, home to Asheville, has been hit hardest by the devastating storm, contributing to most of the state's confirmed fatalities. Authorities held an emergency meeting to coordinate ongoing rescue efforts and announced emergency medical shelters to help those affected.

Officials have set up a special website for families to report missing loved ones and are hopeful that many of the unaccounted-for individuals are simply out of communication due to widespread power outages. However, with 36 total deaths statewide, Governor Roy Cooper acknowledged that the toll could increase as rescue operations continue.

According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. job openings rebounded in August after two consecutive months of declines. The number of job openings increased by 329,000, reaching 8.04 million by the end of August, exceeding expectations.

However, hiring activity softened, with total hires falling by 99,000 to 5.317 million. Meanwhile, layoffs saw a notable decline, dropping by 105,000 to 1.608 million.

According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), the U.S. manufacturing sector continued to contract in September. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which measures the activity level of businesses in the manufacturing sector, remained unchanged at 47.2, missing market expectations of 47.6.

The Employment Index within the PMI survey declined to 43.9 from 46, indicating further weakness in manufacturing employment. The Prices Paid Index fell sharply to 48.3 from 54, suggesting easing input cost pressures. On a positive note, the New Orders Index improved to 46.1 from 44.6, hinting at a modest pickup in future demand.

According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the United States Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024. During the same period, the GDP Price Index remained steady at 2.5%.

Additionally, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) increased by 2.8% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), matching expectations for Q2. Similarly, overall US PCE Prices also met the 2.5% QoQ forecast for the same period

US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending September 20 came in at 218K, beating the 225K expectations. The previous week's number was revised higher to 222K. Continuing Jobless Claims, which typically lag by a week, increased slightly to 1.834 million on September 13, missing the 1.828 million estimates. The 4-week average for Jobless Claims declined to 224.75K as of September 20, down from the previous 227.5K.