EconoTicker

In 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a new wave of tariffs on imports from countries like China, Canada, and Mexico. Introduced under a declared national emergency, these measures aim to strengthen domestic manufacturing and address trade imbalances. However, the impact on financial markets has been far from uniform.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has announced an emergency, closed-door meeting with its board members. This decision is seen as a response to current economic conditions and could have significant impacts on financial markets.

The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March, surpassing expectations of 137,000. However, February’s job gains were revised sharply down to 117,000 from 151,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% from 4.1%. Wage growth increased by 0.3% month-over-month, slightly higher than February’s revised 0.2%.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet decreased to $6.723 trillion, down from $6.740 trillion. Meanwhile, reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks also fell to $3.427 trillion from $3.450 trillion, reflecting a slight tightening in overall liquidity.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 in March, missing expectations of 53.0 and down from 53.5, indicating a slower pace of growth in the services sector. Notably, employment plunged to 46.2, well below the forecast of 53.0, signaling contraction in hiring activity. New orders softened to 50.4 from 52.2, while business activity remained solid at 55.9, and prices paid eased to 60.9 from 62.0, suggesting some relief in input costs.

The S&P Global Services PMI rose to 54.4 in March, slightly above the forecast of 54.3 and up from 51.0 in February, signaling accelerating growth in the services sector. Meanwhile, the Composite PMI held steady at 53.5, matching expectations and improving from 51.6, pointing to solid overall business activity.

The US trade deficit in February came in at -$122.7B, slightly wider than expectations of -$122.5B but narrower than January's -$130.7B. Exports rose to $278.5B, up from $269.8B, while imports remained steady at $401.1B, just shy of the previous $401.2B, indicating stable external demand and improving export activity.

Initial jobless claims edged down to 219K, below expectations of 225K, while continuing claims rose to 1.903 million, suggesting some cooling in the labor market. The 4-week average stood at 223K, slightly lower than the previous 224.25K. Meanwhile, Challenger job cuts surged in March to 275.24K, more than 204.8% higher year-over-year, highlighting a sharp increase in announced layoffs compared to 103.2% in the previous reading.

U.S. Factory Orders increased 0.6% in February, slightly above the 0.5% forecast but down from January’s 1.8% gain, signaling moderate growth in manufacturing demand.

The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report showed 155K new jobs added in March, exceeding the 118K forecast and significantly higher than February's 84K, indicating steady but slowing labor market growth.

🔸A new 10% baseline tariff for ALL imports

🔸China hit hardest with a 34% tariff, raising the effective rate to 54%

🔸No more de minimis exemption for low-value Chinese shipments

🔸Taiwan manufacturing faces 30%+ tariffs

🔸Canada & Mexico are largely unaffected (Mexico won’t retaliate)

🔸Tariffs can be reduced through negotiations

Global trade just got a major shake-up! 🌍

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March increased to 50.2, surpassing expectations of 49.8 but lower than the previous 52.7. This indicates modest expansion in the manufacturing sector, signaling stabilizing industrial activity.