EconoTicker

US Building Permits fell by 1.0% in February, a smaller decline than the expected -1.2%, but a steeper drop than January’s -0.6%. The total number of permits issued reached 1.459M, slightly above the forecast of 1.456M but down from 1.473M in the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in construction activity.

The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in March, missing the expected 51.9 and dropping from 52.7, signaling a return to contraction. In contrast, the Services PMI jumped to 54.3, well above the forecast of 51.2 and February’s 51.0, pushing the Composite PMI up to 53.5 from 51.6, indicating robust economic expansion.

The US Leading Index dropped 0.3% in February, marking a steeper decline than the expected -0.2% and matching January’s downward trend. The data signals ongoing economic softness, adding to concerns about future growth momentum.

US existing home sales jumped to 4.26M in February, significantly beating the expected 3.95M and rising from 4.09M in January. On a monthly basis, sales surged 4.2%, rebounding strongly from the previous -4.7% decline, signaling renewed activity in the housing market.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 12.5 in March, down from 18.1 but still above the expected 8.8. Business conditions also weakened, dropping to 5.6 from 27.8, while new orders declined to 8.7 from 21.9. However, employment showed a strong rebound at 19.7, up from 5.3. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures rose, with the prices paid index jumping to 48.3 from 40.5, signaling increased cost pressures for manufacturers.

For the week ending March 14, initial jobless claims stood at 223K, slightly below the expected 224K, while the four-week average increased to 227K from 226.25 K. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1,892K, slightly above the forecasted 1,890K, and up from the previous 1,859K, indicating a stable labor market despite minor upticks.

Fed keeps rates steady and sticks with rate-cut forecast despite stubborn inflation. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged Wednesday and continued to forecast two rate cuts for this year even as it now expects a tougher battle against inflation.      

The Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, left its benchmark rate unchanged in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.

In February, the Capacity Utilization Rate increased to 78.2%, up from 77.8% in January, signaling a slight improvement in the use of industrial capacity. Industrial Production grew 0.7% MoM, surpassing the expected 0.2%, and Manufacturing Production rose 0.9% MoM, a stronger result compared to the prior 0.1%. On a YoY basis, Industrial Production increased by 1.44%, though slower than the previous month's 1.92% growth. The data reflects continued expansion in the industrial sector, with a notable boost in manufacturing output.

In February, the Export Price Index rose 0.1% MoM, falling short of January’s 1.3% gain but improving from the previous month's -0.2% drop. On a YoY basis, the Export Price Index increased 2.1%, a decline from the prior 2.7%. Meanwhile, the Import Price Index rose 0.4% MoM, maintaining the same pace as January, and saw a 2.0% YoY increase, slightly exceeding expectations of 1.6%. This mixed data indicates some upward pressure on import prices while export price growth has slowed a bit.

In February, US Housing Starts surged by 11.2% MoM to 1.501 million, a significant rebound from January's -11.5% decline, surpassing expectations of 1.380 million. However, Building Permits saw a slight decrease, falling 1.2% MoM, with 1.456 million permits issued, slightly above the expected 1.450 million but lower than January's 1.473 million. Despite the dip in permits, the data indicates resilience in the housing sector.

Errante | Adnan Rehman

🔸JPMorgan now expects 1.6% US GDP growth in 2025, down from 1.9%.

🔸Goldman Sachs cuts 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 1.7% (Q4/Q4) vs prior forecast of 2.2%

🔸Morgan Stanley cuts 2025 US GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.9% prior

🔸CIBC slashes Canadian and US GDP forecasts on trade war pain

U.S. business inventories increased 0.3% in January, matching expectations and rebounding from a -0.2% decline in December. Retail inventories excluding autos grew 0.5%, exceeding the 0.4% forecast, signaling improved stock levels amid stabilizing supply chains.