translate
English
پارسی
English
Englishپارسی
English
Englishپارسی
EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیUS factory orders fell 4.8% month‑on‑month in June, reversing an 8.3% surge in May and nearly matching expectations for a 4.9% drop. The slide was largely due to a 22.4% plunge in transportation equipment orders as demand for civilian aircraft and ships retrenched after a blockbuster May. Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders actually rose 0.4%, up from a 0.3% gain the previous month, with machinery, computers, and primary metals showing modest growth. Durable‑goods orders slumped 9.4%, while non‑durables ticked up 0.5%. Factory orders measure the dollar value of new orders placed with manufacturers; orders excluding transportation strip out airplanes and autos to reveal underlying trends. June’s report points to resilience in most manufacturing industries despite the aerospace drag, suggesting supply chains and demand remain steady. The data may temper expectations for industrial output, but are unlikely to prompt immediate policy changes from the Federal Reserve.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
A second straight monthly decline in pending home sales points to cooling demand in the housing market, likely driven by affordability constraints and higher mortgage rates.
MARKET REACTION
Homebuilder stocks ticked down modestly and mortgage-backed securities saw slight strength as traders weighed the drop in contracts against broader economic resilience.
OUTLOOK
Investors will focus on upcoming existing-home sales and June new-home sales reports, along with any Fed commentary on interest-rate paths, for further signals on housing-sector momentum.
KEY FIGURES
• PCE Price Index QoQ (Q2): 2.1% (prev: 3.7%)
• Real Consumer Spending QoQ (Q2): 1.4% (prev: 0.5%)
• Core PCE Price Index QoQ (Q2): 2.50% (est: 2.40%; prev: 3.50%)
WHAT IT MEANS
Inflation cooled notably in Q2—headline PCE slowed from 3.7% to 2.1%—while core inflation outpaced estimates despite easing from last quarter, and real consumer spending accelerated, underscoring resilient household demand.
MARKET REACTION
Treasury yields dipped modestly and equity futures were little changed as markets balanced the positive spending data against sticky core inflation.
OUTLOOK
Investors will eye upcoming Fed minutes and July PCE readings for clues on whether the central bank can pause its tightening cycle.
KEY FIGURES
• GDP QoQ (Q2): 3.0% (est: 2.5%; prev: –0.5%)
• GDP Price Index QoQ (Q2): 2.0% (est: 2.2%; prev: 3.8%)
• GDP Sales (Q2): 6.3% (prev: –3.1%)
WHAT IT MEANS
The US economy rebounded sharply in Q2 with 3.0% quarter-on-quarter growth, driven by a robust 6.3% surge in real sales, while the GDP price index’s slowdown to 2.0% signals moderating inflationary pressures on overall output.
MARKET REACTION
Equity futures climbed on the strong growth beat and Treasury yields rose modestly as investors balanced upbeat demand signals against easing price pressures.
OUTLOOK
Markets will watch upcoming Fed commentary, July employment data, and core inflation readings to gauge whether this momentum supports a pause or further tightening in monetary policy.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
Private-sector hiring rebounded sharply, adding 104 000 jobs after a 23 000-job drop in June, underscoring continued resilience in labor demand outside the public sector.
MARKET REACTION
U.S. equity futures rose modestly and Treasury yields ticked up as markets digested stronger-than-expected employment growth.
OUTLOOK
Investors will focus on Friday’s official nonfarm payrolls report and Fed speakers’ remarks for confirmation of whether labor-market strength will persist.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
A drop in applications and purchase-index readings signals cooling housing demand, even as the 30-year rate ticks slightly lower—offering marginal relief to prospective buyers.
MARKET REACTION
Mortgage-sensitive equities drifted lower and Treasury yields were little changed as investors weighed softer demand against steadier long-term rates.
OUTLOOK
Analysts will eye upcoming housing starts and pending home-sales data, alongside Fed commentary, for clues on whether the housing slowdown will persist or stabilize.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
Core PCE inflation held steady on an annual basis and rose moderately month-on-month, signaling persistent underlying price pressures; meanwhile, personal income and spending both rebounded, supporting consumer activity.
MARKET REACTION
Treasury yields and equity futures were mixed as markets balanced sticky inflation with signs of resilient household income and spending.
OUTLOOK
Investors will watch upcoming Fed commentary, the July nonfarm payrolls report, and further PCE readings to assess whether the Fed can pause its rate-hike cycle.
Employment benefits rose 0.70% QoQ in Q2 (prev: 1.20%), while the Employment Cost Index increased 0.90% QoQ (est: 0.80%; prev: 0.90%) and wages grew 1.00% QoQ (prev: 0.80%). The slowdown in benefit‐cost growth suggests easing non-wage compensation pressures, whereas the acceleration in wage growth underlines persistent labour-market tightness and upward pressure on overall labour costs.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
Initial claims rose modestly to 218 K but remained below forecasts, while continuing claims held steady at 1.946 million—indicating the labor market remains historically tight despite some softening.
MARKET REACTION
US equity futures were little changed and Treasury yields dipped slightly as markets digested the mixed labor-market signals.
OUTLOOK
Investors will focus on next nonfarm payrolls report and upcoming Fed commentary to gauge whether these trends signal a durable cooling or merely a pause in labor-market strength.
KEY FIGURES
• Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jul): 139.8% (prev: –1.6%)
• Challenger Job Cuts (Jul): 62.075 K (prev: 47.999 K)
WHAT IT MEANS
Corporate layoff announcements jumped sharply year-over-year, with July cuts rising to over 62 000, signaling growing caution among employers amid slowing growth and cost pressures.
MARKET REACTION
US equity futures dipped modestly and Treasury yields ticked down as markets weighed the uptick in announced layoffs against resilient labour-market fundamentals.
OUTLOOK
Investors will monitor upcoming monthly payrolls and ADP reports for confirmation of softening hiring trends and any implications for Fed policy.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged, signaling that the current policy stance remains appropriate amid moderating inflation and a resilient labor market.
MARKET REACTION
US Treasury yields and equity futures were little changed as investors balanced expectations for future Fed moves.
OUTLOOK
Markets will watch upcoming CPI and PCE inflation reports, as well as Fed officials’ comments, for clues on the timing of the next rate adjustment.
The Treasury’s 7‑year note auction saw a yield of 4.092%, up from 4.022% at the prior auction, indicating modestly weaker demand for longer‑dated debt amid a higher‑rate environment.