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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیKEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
Flat retail inventories ex auto suggest a balance between supply and demand at the storefront level, while a 0.2% rise in wholesale inventories points to modest restocking after prior declines; resilient 4.9% Redbook growth underscores continued consumer spending strength.
MARKET REACTION
The US dollar was little changed versus major peers and both Treasury yields and retail stock performances saw minimal movement as markets digested the mixed inventory signals.
OUTLOOK
Investors will monitor upcoming retail sales, next week’s wholesale inventories update, and Fed commentary for clues on how inventory dynamics may influence monetary policy decisions.
KEY FIGURES
WHAT IT MEANS
The US goods deficit narrowed to $85.99 billion in June—well above forecasts and down from $96.59 billion in May—reflecting stronger export activity and softer import demand.
MARKET REACTION
The US dollar strengthened against major peers, and Treasury yields ticked up as markets viewed the data as supportive of domestic manufacturing.
OUTLOOK
Economists will watch next week’s services trade figures and upcoming GDP revisions for a fuller picture of the US external sector’s resilience.
KEY FIGURES
• New Home Sales MoM (Jun): 0.6% (prev: -11.6%)
• New Home Sales (Jun): 627 K (est: 649 K; prev: 623 K)
WHAT IT MEANS
New home sales rebounded by 0.6% in June after a steep 11.6% drop in May, while the annualized pace of 627,000 units came in below forecasts but remains above last month’s trough, pointing to tentative stabilization in the US housing market.
MARKET REACTION
US Treasury yields edged up slightly, and homebuilder stocks were mixed, as investors weighed the modest recovery against broader affordability concerns.
OUTLOOK
Analysts will watch upcoming housing starts and existing home sales data, along with Fed commentary, for further clues on whether the housing sector can sustain its recovery.
KEY FIGURES
• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 49.5 (est: 52.7; prev: 52.9)
• S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul): 54.6 (prev: 52.9)
• S&P Global Services PMI (Jul): 55.2 (est: 53.0; prev: 52.9)
WHAT IT MEANS
Manufacturing PMI slipped back below the 50 threshold into contraction territory, while strong services and composite readings indicate robust expansion in the broader economy.
MARKET REACTION
U.S. equity futures rose modestly, and the dollar was little changed as markets balanced the weaker manufacturing data against stronger services growth.
OUTLOOK
Investors will look to upcoming Fed minutes and regional manufacturing surveys for further clues on the outlook for economic growth and monetary policy.
KEY FIGURES
• Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,955 K (est: 1,960 K; prev: 1,951 K)
• Initial Jobless Claims: 217 K (est: 227 K; prev: 221 K)
• Jobless Claims 4‑Week Avg.: 224.50 K (prev: 229.50 K)
WHAT IT MEANS
Initial claims unexpectedly fell to 217 K, continuing claims ticked up slightly to 1,955 K (but remained below forecasts), and the four‑week average dropped—underscoring a still‑tight US labor market despite cooling economic growth.
MARKET REACTION
US equity futures rallied modestly and Treasury yields dipped as markets interpreted the data as reflecting greater labor‑market resilience than anticipated.
OUTLOOK
Investors will focus on next week’s nonfarm payrolls report and remarks from Federal Reserve officials for further clues on the labor market’s trajectory and potential policy shifts.
KEY FIGURES
• Building Permits MoM (Jun): -0.1% (prev: -2.0%)
• Building Permits (Jun): 1.393 M (est: 1.397 M; prev: 1.394 M)
WHAT IT MEANS
US building permits dipped slightly by 0.1% in June following a steep 2.0% decline in May, while the total number of permits at 1.393 million remains close to forecasts, suggesting underlying resilience in housing demand.
MARKET REACTION
US Treasury yields and homebuilder stocks were largely unchanged as markets interpreted the data as broadly in line with expectations.
OUTLOOK
Analysts will look to upcoming housing starts figures and Federal Reserve remarks for further guidance on the health of the housing sector and its potential impact on monetary policy.
The U.S. Treasury’s latest 20-year bond auction priced at a yield of 4.935%, slightly below the previous auction's 4.942%, indicating steady investor appetite despite persistent inflation risks and fiscal uncertainty.
🔹 Key Data:
📊 What it Means:
The near-steady yield suggests bond investors continue to demand long-duration Treasuries, balancing higher yields with expectations that the Fed is nearing the end of its hiking cycle.
U.S. durable goods orders plunged 9.3% in June, far worse than the expected ‑10.4%, following a 16.5% surge in May. Core orders (ex-transportation) edged up just 0.2%, showing underlying business investment is weakening.
📉 Key Figures:
🔎 What It Means:
The steep monthly drop signals a sharp pullback in aircraft-related orders, while broader capital goods demand also cooled, hinting at caution from U.S. businesses amid economic uncertainty.
Sales of existing homes in the U.S. fell 2.7% month-over-month in June, reaching an annualized pace of 3.93 million units, below expectations (4.00M) and down from May’s 4.04M.
📉 What it Means:
High mortgage rates and limited inventory continue to weigh on housing demand, pushing sales toward multi-decade lows.
The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows a modest recovery in mortgage activity, even as rates ticked slightly higher.
🔹 Key Data:
📊 What it Means:
Mortgage applications rose modestly, driven by home purchase activity, while refinancing slowed. The uptick in rates continues to limit broader recovery in demand.
Hexcel reported Q2 results that surpassed analyst forecasts, driven by continued strength in the aerospace and defense sectors. Both earnings per share and revenue exceeded market expectations.
🔹 Key Data:
📊 What it Means:
Hexcel's performance highlights resilient demand for advanced composites in commercial aerospace, supporting the company's growth trajectory.
Lazard reported Q2 earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with both EPS and revenue beating consensus. The global financial advisory firm benefited from improved deal activity and cost management.
🔹 Key Data:
📊 What it Means:
Lazard’s solid performance reflects a rebound in strategic advisory services, signaling tentative recovery in M&A and restructuring demand.