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The UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey for April fell to -68, much weaker than the forecast of -42 and below the previous -52. The result points to a sharper deterioration in retail sales sentiment and continued pressure on consumer-facing businesses.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

The weak reading may add mild downside pressure to UK retail stocks and reinforce concerns about consumer demand, but the direct impact on sterling is likely limited.

Source: Confederation of British Industry

The UK private sector started the second quarter on a firmer footing. The S&P Global Services PMI rose to 52.0 in April from 50.5, beating the 50.0 forecast. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI climbed to 53.6 from 51.0, well above the 50.3 forecast, while the S&P Global Composite PMI improved to 52.0 from 50.3, also ahead of the 49.8 forecast. The data show a broader expansion in business activity, led by a stronger manufacturing rebound and supported by a healthier services reading.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: The stronger PMI mix may support the pound and reduce expectations for near-term Bank of England easing, as it points to a firmer growth pulse at the start of Q2.

Source: S&P Global / CIPS

UK public finance data showed a weaker fiscal picture in March. Public Sector Net Borrowing rose to 12.60B, above the 10.40B forecast and a sharp reversal from the previous -12.80B reading. At the same time, the Public Sector Net Cash Requirement jumped to 28.519B from 7.543B previously. The figures suggest the government’s financing needs increased materially at the end of the fiscal period, pointing to renewed pressure on the public finances.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: Higher-than-expected borrowing may keep gilt markets sensitive to fiscal risks and could modestly limit support for sterling if investors become more cautious on the UK budget outlook.

Source: UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)

The UK car market saw an exceptionally strong monthly rebound in March. Car Registration (MoM) jumped to 322.4%, reversing sharply from -37.5% previously, while Car Registration (YoY) rose 6.6%, slightly below the previous 7.2%. The data suggest a very strong monthly recovery in registration activity, although the annual growth pace eased modestly from the prior reading.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The sharp monthly rebound is supportive for UK auto-sector sentiment, but the slightly softer annual reading may keep the overall market takeaway balanced.

Source: Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)

The UK House Price Index (YoY) rose 1.2% in March, above the 0.9% forecast and slightly stronger than the previous 1.0% reading. The data point to a modest improvement in annual housing-market momentum, suggesting the property market remained relatively resilient despite tighter financial conditions.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The data are mildly supportive for UK housing sentiment, but the broader market impact is likely limited unless stronger price growth is confirmed by wider property-market indicators.

Source: Nationwide Building Society

Bank of England policymakers are still signaling caution over how much the recent rise in headline inflation will feed into broader price pressures. The key issue is that the UK labor market remains weak, which could make it harder for workers to push for higher wages and for businesses to fully pass higher costs on to consumers. That means the latest rise in inflation has not yet convinced most rate-setters that underlying inflation pressure is becoming more entrenched.

For now, the Bank of England is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on April 30 at the end of its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Financial markets were pricing in one, and possibly two, quarter-point rate hikes this year, but a Reuters poll of economists showed that most still expect no change in borrowing costs during 2026. The gap between market pricing and economist expectations highlights how uncertain the policy path remains as the BoE weighs energy-driven inflation against weaker domestic demand and labor-market softness.

Possible Market Effect: This cautious stance may keep sterling and UK gilt yields sensitive to every new inflation and labor-market release. If wage and core inflation stay soft, markets may scale back rate-hike bets, but any further energy-led inflation surprise could quickly push UK rate expectations higher again.

Source: Bank of England; Reuters

British consumer price inflation rose to 3.3% YoY in March, up from 3.0% in February, matching economist expectations and marking an early sign that the Middle East war is feeding into domestic prices through higher fuel costs. Economists polled by Reuters had largely expected the increase, citing the rise in petrol and other energy-related prices during March. The new reading comes after the Bank of England had previously expected inflation to move closer to its 2% target in April before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28.

The inflation outlook has since become more complicated. The Bank of England last month sharply raised its inflation forecast because of the energy shock and now expects inflation to move toward 3.5% by mid-2026. The International Monetary Fund has gone further, forecasting that UK inflation could peak at 4% in the coming months. The latest March figure therefore reinforces the view that Britain remains highly exposed to imported energy pressures and that disinflation may now take longer than previously expected.

Possible Market Effect: The rise in inflation can support gilt yields and limit expectations for near-term Bank of England easing, while also offering some support to sterling if markets see the BoE staying cautious for longer.

Source: UK Office for National Statistics; Reuters; Bank of England; IMF

UK factory-gate inflation strengthened markedly in March, especially on the input side. PPI Input rose 4.4% MoM, far above the 2.8% forecast and up sharply from 0.9% previously, while PPI Input YoY accelerated to 5.4% from 0.7%. On the output side, PPI Output increased 2.6% YoY from 1.8%, and PPI Output MoM rose 0.9%, slightly below the 1.0% forecast but a strong rebound from -0.5% previously. Core output prices were steadier, with Core PPI Output YoY unchanged at 2.0%, while Core PPI Output MoM rose 0.2% after -0.7% previously. The overall message is that upstream cost pressure strengthened materially, even if some of the core output readings were more contained.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: Stronger producer-price readings may revive concern about pipeline inflation feeding into future consumer prices, which could keep gilt yields firm and limit room for dovish Bank of England expectations.

Source: UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)

UK consumer inflation data showed a mixed but still firm picture in March. CPI rose 3.3% YoY, matching the 3.3% forecast and rising from 3.0% previously, while monthly CPI increased 0.7%, above the 0.6% forecast and the prior 0.4%. However, core inflation softened, with Core CPI at 3.1% YoY, below both the 3.2% forecast and 3.2% previous reading, while Core CPI MoM came in at 0.4%, under the 0.5% forecast and down from 0.6%. Retail inflation also strengthened, with RPI rising 4.1% YoY versus 3.9% forecast and 3.6% previously, while RPI MoM printed 0.8%, above the 0.7% forecast and 0.4% prior. Core RPI YoY increased to 4.0% from 3.5%, Core RPI MoM rose to 0.8% from 0.4%, and the CPI n.s.a. index climbed to 141.00 from 140.10. Overall, headline inflation strengthened, but softer core CPI suggests some easing in underlying price momentum.

Importance: High

Possible Market Effect: The combination of firmer headline CPI and stronger RPI keeps inflation sticky enough to support a cautious Bank of England stance, even though softer core CPI may reduce the risk of a more aggressive hawkish repricing.

Source: UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)

The UK labor market delivered a mixed set of signals. Employment change slowed to 25K from 84K previously, showing weaker hiring momentum. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, better than both the 5.2% forecast and the previous 5.2% reading. Wage data were also mixed: average earnings including bonus rose 3.8%, above the 3.6% forecast but below the previous 4.1%, while average earnings excluding bonus came in at 3.6%, above the 3.5% forecast but below the previous 3.8%. Meanwhile, claimant count change jumped to 26.8K, worse than the 21.4K forecast and above the previous 17.1K. Overall, the data show a labor market that is not collapsing, but is becoming more uneven, with softer hiring and rising claimant pressure offset by a lower unemployment rate and still-firm wage growth.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: The report is mixed for sterling. Lower unemployment and above-forecast wage growth may keep the Bank of England cautious, but slower employment growth and a bigger rise in claimants could limit bullish momentum for the pound.

Source: UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)

The UK Rightmove House Price Index presented a mixed picture in April. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.8%, unchanged from the previous 0.8%, showing short-term stability. But on an annual basis, prices fell 0.9%, worsening from -0.2% previously. This suggests that while monthly pricing momentum held up, the broader yearly housing trend remained under pressure.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The data are neutral to mildly soft for sterling, as resilient monthly pricing is offset by weaker annual housing momentum.

Source: Rightmove

Importance: Low

The UK’s NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker rose to 0.6% in March, up from 0.5% previously, pointing to a slightly firmer near-term growth estimate. The reading suggests the UK economy kept expanding, with momentum improving modestly from the prior month.

Possible Market Effect:

The immediate market effect is usually limited, but a firmer GDP tracker can support the pound and near-term growth sentiment at the margin if upcoming official data show the same direction.

Source: National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)