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UK business investment fell 2.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, better than the -2.7% forecast but sharply weaker than the 1.1% previous reading. On a yearly basis, business investment rose 2.0%, in line with the 2.0% forecast, but slower than 3.5% previously. This combination suggests that corporate capital spending lost momentum at the end of the year, even though the quarterly decline was slightly less severe than expected.

Importance: Medium

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The UK economy expanded 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, matching both the 0.1% forecast and the 0.1% previous reading. On a yearly basis, GDP rose 1.0%, also in line with the 1.0% forecast, but down from 1.2% previously. The data shows the economy remained in growth territory at the end of the year, but the annual pace softened, pointing to limited momentum.

Importance: High

Possible Market Effect: Because the figures matched expectations, the immediate market reaction may be limited. Still, the softer annual pace may reduce scope for a stronger repricing toward firmer UK growth expectations.

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The UK’s BRC Shop Price Index rose 1.2% year-on-year in March, matching expectations and ticking up from 1.1% previously. The move suggests shop-level inflation pressures are still contained, but no longer easing further, which keeps consumer-price transmission under watch as retailers deal with higher costs and a tougher external environment.

Importance: Low

Possible market effect: On its own, this reading is unlikely to shift BoE pricing materially, but a steady rise in shop-price inflation can keep markets cautious about how fast UK disinflation will continue.

The UK’s February money and credit data pointed to a firmer lending backdrop. Mortgage approvals rose to 62.58K from 60.25K and beat the 61.00K forecast, while consumer credit increased to 1.935B, above both the 1.600B forecast and 1.828B previously. Mortgage lending climbed to 4.84B from 4.21B, and net lending to individuals advanced to 6.800B from 5.900B, also topping expectations. On the liquidity side, M4 money supply rose 0.6% month-on-month after -0.1%, and M3 money stock increased to 3,228.4B from 3,210.2B. Overall, the figures suggest household borrowing and broader credit creation remained resilient, pointing to still-active domestic financial conditions.

Importance: Low

Source: Bank of England (Money and Credit).

UK retail activity softened in February after a strong January. Retail sales fell 0.4% month on month, while core retail sales also dropped 0.4%. On an annual basis, the picture remained firmer, with headline retail sales up 2.5% year on year and core retail sales up 3.4%. The figures suggest British consumers were still spending more than a year earlier, even though monthly momentum weakened.

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) — Retail sales, Great Britain: February 2026.

Britain’s GfK consumer confidence index improved to -21 in March from -24, beating expectations, but it still remained below the -19 level seen previously. Even with the better-than-expected reading, household sentiment stayed deeply negative, showing that consumers remain cautious about the economic outlook.

Source: GfK Consumer Confidence Index, as reported by Reuters.

The UK housing market lost a bit more momentum in the latest reading, with the house price index rising 1.3% year on year, down from 1.9% previously. The softer annual pace suggests price growth in the housing market is still positive, but the trend has cooled as affordability pressure and higher borrowing costs continue to weigh on demand.

Source: HM Land Registry — UK House Price Index.

The UK’s headline CPI was 3.0% year on year in February, unchanged from January, while monthly CPI rose 0.4%. At the same time, core CPI accelerated to 3.2% from 3.1%, and RPI eased to 3.6% from 3.8%. The mix suggests headline inflation was steady, but underlying consumer-price pressure remained somewhat firmer.

Producer-price data were more mixed. PPI input prices rose 0.8% month on month and 0.5% year on year in February, while PPI output prices fell 0.5% on the month and slowed to 1.7% year on year. Core PPI output was 1.9% year on year and -0.8% month on month, pointing to softer factory-gate inflation even as some input-cost pressure persisted.

Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) — Consumer price inflation, UK: February 2026; Producer price inflation, UK: February 2026.

The UK’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey deteriorated further in March, with the headline balance falling to -52 from -43 in February. The Confederation of British Industry said this marked the fastest drop in retail sales volumes since April 2020, underlining how weak household demand remains. Retailers also told the CBI they expect sales to stay under pressure next month, with the April balance seen at -49.

Source: Confederation of British Industry (CBI) — Distributive Trades Survey, March 2026.

The UK’s latest 10-year gilt auction pointed to firmer sovereign borrowing costs, with the average accepted yield rising to 4.911% from 4.585% previously. The result suggests investors demanded a noticeably higher return to absorb new government debt, reinforcing the market’s sensitivity to inflation risk and the outlook for UK rates. The Debt Management Office said the sale of £2.25 billion of 4¾% Treasury Gilt 2035 was 3.50 times covered, showing demand remained solid even as yields moved higher.

Source: UK Debt Management Office (DMO) — Result of the sale by auction of 4¾% Treasury Gilt 2035.

The UK’s March PMI readings showed growth continuing, but at a weaker pace. Manufacturing PMI edged down to 51.4 from 51.7, services PMI dropped to 51.2 from 53.9, and the composite PMI fell to 51.0 from 53.7. That left the UK private sector still in expansion territory, but at its weakest pace in six months.

The data point to a softer services sector as the main drag, while manufacturing stayed comparatively resilient.

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence / CIPS — Flash UK PMI.

The UK car market posted a mixed February profile. Car registrations rose 7.2% year on year, but fell 37.5% month on month in the data you shared, showing how seasonal patterns are still driving the market. SMMT said 90,100 new cars were registered in February, the strongest February volume in 22 years, while also noting that the month is usually a lower-volume and more volatile month because many buyers wait for the March plate change.

Source: Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) — UK new car registrations / February market release.