EconoTicker

Importance: Low

The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings are taking place in Washington, D.C. from April 13 to April 18, 2026. The meetings bring together finance ministers, central bankers, and policymakers at a time when markets are closely focused on growth, inflation, energy disruption, and financial stability risks.

Possible Market Effect:

The meetings themselves are not a market-moving data release, but they can generate policy signals, global-growth guidance, and official comments that affect currencies, rates, and risk sentiment.

Source: International Monetary Fund; World Bank Group.

Importance: Medium

Türkiye’s budget balance posted a TRY 229.90 billion deficit in March, a sharp deterioration from the previous TRY 24.40 billion surplus shown in the release table. The official ministry report says the central government budget recorded a TRY 229.872 billion deficit in March 2026. The move points to a clear monthly weakening in the fiscal balance after the earlier surplus reading.

Possible Market Effect:

On its own, one monthly deficit does not change the full fiscal picture, but a swing of this size can keep attention on Türkiye’s financing mix, borrowing needs, and the broader rates backdrop.

Source: Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Treasury and Finance, March 2026 Monthly Budget Realization Report.

The International Monetary Fund lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% and warned that the world economy would move much closer to recession if the Middle East conflict worsens and energy disruption through the Strait of Hormuz persists. Under the IMF’s more severe scenario, global growth could slow to 2.0%, while the Fund said the baseline still assumes the shock fades later in the year.

The warning highlights how a prolonged supply shock in oil and shipping can quickly spill into weaker growth, higher inflation, and tighter financial conditions. The IMF said rising energy costs are already darkening the global outlook, with more vulnerable energy-importing economies facing the greatest pressure.

Possible Market Effect:

This is supportive for safe-haven assets and keeps markets highly sensitive to oil prices, inflation expectations, and central-bank policy risks. If disruption in the Persian Gulf continues, equities and growth-sensitive currencies could stay vulnerable while recession fears build.

Source: International Monetary Fund; Reuters.

Importance: Medium

South Korea’s unemployment rate fell to 2.7% in March from 2.9% previously, pointing to some improvement in labor-market conditions. At the same time, February monetary data stayed firm, with M3 money supply rising to 6,160.5B from 6,107.3B, while M2 money supply growth accelerated to 8.0% from 7.3%. Together, the figures suggest a somewhat better domestic macro backdrop, with labor conditions improving and liquidity growth still expanding.

Possible Market Effect:

A lower jobless rate and firmer money growth are modestly supportive of domestic demand expectations. The immediate market effect is likely limited, but the mix is slightly constructive for the local growth tone.

Source: Statistics Korea; Bank of Korea, Monetary and Liquidity Aggregates.

Importance: Medium

South Korea’s March trade figures remained firm. Exports rose 49.2% YoY, imports increased 13.2% YoY, and the trade balance widened to $26.24 billion. The release shows that external demand stayed strong enough to keep the surplus expanding, with semiconductors and AI-linked shipments continuing to underpin the trade picture. Reuters reported that South Korea’s March exports hit their strongest pace in decades and the trade balance reached a record surplus.

Possible Market Effect:

This is supportive for the won and for Korea-linked equities at the margin, especially if export strength continues to be driven by chips and broader technology demand.

Source: Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy / Korea trade release; Reuters coverage.

این داده در حاشیه برای وون کره و سهام وابسته به کره حمایتی است، به‌ویژه اگر قدرت صادرات همچنان از سمت تراشه‌ها و تقاضای گسترده‌تر فناوری هدایت شود.

منبع: وزارت تجارت، صنعت و انرژی کره / گزارش تجاری کره؛ پوشش رویترز. 

Importance: Medium

South Korea’s external price indicators turned much hotter in March. The Import Price Index rose 18.4% YoY from 1.6% previously, while the Export Price Index accelerated to 28.7% YoY from 11.1%. The combination points to a sharp rise in imported cost pressure alongside much stronger export pricing, showing that external inflation is pushing through both sides of the trade channel.

Possible Market Effect:

This is a mixed signal for Korean assets. Stronger export pricing can support revenue momentum for exporters, but a sharp rise in import prices also raises inflation and margin pressure risks.

Source: Bank of Korea, Export/Import Price Indexes and Trade Indexes - March 2026 (preliminary).

Importance: Medium

Brazil’s service sector lost momentum in February. Service sector growth slowed to 0.5% year-on-year from 3.2% previously, while the monthly reading eased to 0.1% from 0.2%. The combination points to softer services activity after a stronger earlier pace, suggesting domestic demand is still growing but with less momentum.

Possible Market Effect:

This is mildly negative for the near-term Brazil growth story. If services continue to cool, markets may become more cautious on domestic demand-sensitive assets and on how much support the economy can draw from consumption and services.

Source: IBGE, Monthly Survey of Services.

Importance: Low

Israel’s M1 money supply growth slowed to 2.7% year-on-year in March from 5.7% previously. The drop points to a clear deceleration in narrow money growth and suggests liquidity expansion in the economy has become notably softer than in the prior month.

Possible Market Effect:

The immediate market effect is likely limited, but softer money growth can be read as a sign of weaker liquidity momentum. If the trend persists, it may reinforce a more cautious macro view.

Source: Bank of Israel.

Importance: Low

Türkiye’s current account balance posted a $7.50 billion deficit in February, matching the forecast of $7.50 billion and widening slightly from the previous $7.04 billion deficit. The reading shows that the external balance remained under pressure at the start of the year.

Possible Market Effect:

The immediate market reaction may be limited because the figure matched expectations. Still, a wide current account deficit keeps external financing needs in focus, especially if energy costs stay elevated.

Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).

Importance: Medium

Türkiye’s retail sector slowed in February. Retail sales fell 0.2% month-on-month after 2.8% previously, while annual retail sales growth eased to 15.6% from 19.7%. The combined reading points to weaker short-term consumption momentum and a softer annual growth pace at the same time.

Possible Market Effect:

This is mildly negative for the domestic growth outlook. If the softer retail trend continues, it could support a more cautious view on consumer demand and keep markets attentive to the balance between disinflation and growth.

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT).

(Medium importance)

Brazil’s March inflation data showed stronger price pressures. CPI (YoY) came in at 4.14%, above the forecast of 4.00% and higher than the previous 3.81%. CPI (MoM) rose 0.88%, above the forecast of 0.77% and the previous 0.70%. At the same time, the Brazilian IPCA Inflation Index SA (MoM) printed 0.82%, up from 0.70% previously. The combined picture points to a renewed acceleration in both headline and seasonally adjusted inflation.

Possible Market Effect: The stronger inflation readings may support a firmer inflation narrative in Brazil and could keep attention on interest-rate expectations.

Source: IBGE

Turkey’s February industrial data showed a clear improvement from the previous month. Industrial Production (MoM) rose 0.30%, reversing from -24.80% previously. At the same time, Industrial Production (YoY) increased 2.2%, improving from -1.9% previously. With no forecast shown in the provided data, the main signal is that industrial activity recovered on both a monthly and annual basis after a very weak prior reading. The figures suggest that Turkey’s industrial sector regained momentum in February.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: The data may support a somewhat firmer view on Turkey’s near-term activity backdrop, especially if the recovery is confirmed by other production and demand indicators.

Source: TurkStat