EconoTicker

Turkey’s CPI excluding E,F,B,T&G rose 29.7% YoY in March, up from 29.5% previously. On a monthly basis, the same measure increased 1.6%, compared with 1.5% previously. With no forecast provided in the input, the key signal is that core inflation remained elevated and annual underlying price pressure moved slightly higher, even as the monthly pace stayed relatively contained.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: Sticky core inflation can keep markets cautious on Turkey’s disinflation path, because underlying price pressure remains firm even as headline CPI moderates.

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

Turkey’s headline CPI eased to 30.87% YoY in March, below the 31.40% forecast and down from 31.53% previously. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 1.94%, also below the 2.32% forecast and slower than 2.96% previously. The data shows a clearer moderation in headline inflation, with both monthly and annual price growth coming in softer than expected.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The softer-than-expected inflation reading may slightly reduce immediate pressure for a more hawkish policy interpretation, although inflation remains very high in absolute terms.

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves declined to $423.66B in March from $427.62B, indicating a reduction in reserve buffers, potentially reflecting currency stabilization efforts or valuation effects.

Possible Market Effect:

Lower reserves may signal intervention pressures, which could add volatility to KRW.

Source: Bank of Korea

Brazil’s industrial production data for February showed a mixed performance. Output declined 0.7% YoY, better than the -1.0% forecast but weaker than the 0.2% previous reading. On a monthly basis, industrial production rose 0.9%, beating the 0.7% forecast but slowing from 2.1% previously. The data indicate a modest recovery in monthly activity, but underlying annual momentum remains negative.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: The mixed signal suggests limited directional impact, though weaker annual output may cap bullish sentiment toward Brazilian growth expectations.

Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

Brazil’s IPC-Fipe inflation index rose 0.59% month-on-month in March, up from 0.25% previously. With no forecast provided, the data shows a clear pickup in monthly consumer-price pressure in this measure at the start of the month.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: Faster monthly inflation can keep attention on short-term price pressure and may modestly support a cautious view on domestic rates.

Source: Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas (FIPE).

Türkiye’s reserve data weakened significantly. Gross FX reserves fell to 55.29B from 61.29B previously. Net FX reserves fell to 35.08% from 57.41% previously, as reported in the provided data. The combined reading points to a sharp decline in reserve buffers compared with the prior release.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: Lower reserve levels can increase sensitivity around external-financing and currency stability concerns, particularly if the decline continues.

Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).

Turkey’s March trade data showed a mixed picture. Exports rose to 21.90B, above the 21.10B forecast and higher than 20.30B previously. At the same time, the Trade Ministry trade balance stood at -11.30B, compared with -8.40B previously. The data show export performance improved and beat expectations, but the trade deficit widened from the prior reading, indicating that stronger exports were not enough to prevent a larger external gap.

Importance: Medium

Possible Market Effect: The stronger export figure is supportive for external demand sentiment, but the wider trade deficit can limit any positive interpretation for the lira.

Source: Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Türkiye.

Brazil's IPC-Fipe Inflation Index for March recorded a monthly increase of 0.59%, a notable rise compared to the previous month's figure of 0.25%. While there was no forecast available for this month, the actual increase indicates a strengthening inflationary trend. The substantial jump suggests that inflationary pressures may be building within the economy, which could lead to increased scrutiny from policymakers.

Asian equities turned lower after President Donald Trump signaled a further escalation in the Iran war and again pushed countries dependent on the Strait of Hormuz to secure energy supplies themselves rather than rely on Washington. Updated market levels showed the CSI 300 around 4,450.05, the Shanghai Composite near 3,927.60, and the Hang Seng around 25,033.97, all reflecting a weaker tone across Greater China.

The weakness extended across the rest of the region. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was around 8,592.60, the Straits Times was near 4,936.83, and GIFT Nifty futures were around 22,271.00, indicating a softer open signal for India as investors reassessed the risk of prolonged energy disruption and higher oil prices.

Possible Market Effect: If oil remains elevated and Hormuz disruption persists, Asian equities may stay under pressure, especially in import-dependent markets. The biggest sensitivity remains in countries where higher energy costs can quickly hit inflation, trade balances, and currency stability.

Source: Reuters; Yahoo Finance delayed index quotes; MarketWatch; Investing.com.

South Korea’s March inflation data showed a mixed picture. CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, below the 0.6% forecast but unchanged from the 0.3% previous reading. On a yearly basis, CPI increased 2.2%, below the 2.4% forecast but above 2.0% previously. The data shows that annual inflation accelerated, but both the monthly and yearly readings came in softer than expected.

Possible Market Effect: The softer-than-forecast readings may slightly reduce immediate pressure for a more hawkish policy interpretation, even though annual inflation moved higher.

Source: Statistics Korea.

Brazil’s foreign exchange flows improved to 1.596B, compared with -0.119B previously. With no forecast provided, the data shows a clear turnaround in external flow conditions, moving from a slight outflow to a positive inflow reading.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: A return to positive FX flows can be mildly supportive for the Brazilian real, as it points to a better short-term external flow backdrop.

Source: Banco Central do Brasil (BCB).

Mexico’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.90 in March from 47.10 previously. With no forecast provided, the main signal is that manufacturing conditions improved compared with the prior month, but the index remained below the 50 threshold, indicating that the sector stayed in contraction despite the rebound.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The improvement may slightly support sentiment toward Mexican industrial activity, but the sub-50 reading means the broader manufacturing signal remains soft.

Source: S&P Global.