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Mexico’s labor data improved in March, while activity data stayed weak. The unemployment rate n.s.a. fell to 2.40%, better than the 2.50% forecast and down from 2.60% previously. But the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate came in at 2.80%, above the 2.70% forecast. On the growth side, economic activity (YoY) was -0.30%, missing the 0.70% forecast and unchanged from the previous -0.30%, while economic activity (MoM) rose only 0.10%, below the 0.50% forecast but an improvement from -0.70% previously. The overall picture suggests labor-market resilience, but still-soft economic momentum.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: Better headline unemployment is mildly supportive for sentiment, but weak activity data may keep expectations cautious on Mexico’s growth outlook.

Source: INEGI

Turkey’s reserve data showed a mixed picture. Gross FX Reserves fell to 61.82B from 64.07B, indicating a decline in headline reserve holdings. However, Net FX Reserves improved to 58.38% from 55.59%, suggesting the underlying reserve position strengthened despite the drop in gross reserves.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The mixed reserve picture may keep the market focused on reserve quality rather than headline size alone. Better net reserves are supportive for confidence, but falling gross reserves may limit that support.

Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye

Brazil’s March external data showed a softer picture. Foreign direct investment came in at $6.04B, below the $6.50B forecast and down from $6.75B previously. At the same time, the current account posted a -$6.04B deficit, wider than the -$5.65B forecast and also worse than the previous -$5.61B. The data suggest Brazil’s external funding picture weakened, with lower FDI and a larger current-account gap.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The weaker external mix may modestly weigh on the real if markets focus on a less supportive balance-of-payments backdrop.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil

Brazil’s FGV Consumer Confidence rose to 89.1 in April from 88.1 previously. The increase points to a modest improvement in household sentiment, suggesting consumers became slightly less cautious at the start of the second quarter.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The stronger reading is mildly supportive for Brazil’s domestic-demand outlook, though the market effect is likely limited on its own.

Source: FGV IBRE

Mexico’s retail sector lost momentum in February. Retail Sales fell 0.9% month-on-month, much weaker than the -0.1% forecast and reversing from the previous 1.0% increase. On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose 3.1%, but this was below the 4.1% forecast and slower than the previous 5.0%. The figures show consumer demand weakened more than expected in both monthly and yearly terms.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The weaker retail data may weigh modestly on the peso and reinforce concern that domestic demand is cooling faster than expected.

Source: INEGI

Mexico’s early-April inflation data showed a mixed but generally softer picture. 1st Half-Month CPI rose 0.11%, slightly above the 0.08% forecast but sharply below the previous 0.62% reading. At the same time, 1st Half-Month Core CPI increased 0.18%, below the 0.20% forecast and also lower than the previous 0.22%. The data suggest headline prices still rose modestly, but underlying inflation momentum continued to cool.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The softer core reading may support expectations for a relatively cautious Banxico stance and could be mildly supportive for Mexican rates if disinflation continues.

Source: INEGI

South Korea’s preliminary GDP data showed a much stronger first quarter than expected. Quarterly GDP rose 1.7%, beating the 0.9% forecast and rebounding from -0.2% previously. Annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.6%, also well above the 2.7% forecast and stronger than the prior 1.6%. The data point to a broad improvement in economic momentum at the start of the year.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The stronger GDP figures may support the won and local equities by improving the near-term growth outlook and reducing pressure for a more dovish policy tone.

Source: Bank of Korea

South Korea’s Consumer Confidence index fell to 99.2 in April from 107.0 previously, showing a clear deterioration in household sentiment. The drop pushed the index back below the 100 threshold that typically separates optimism from pessimism, suggesting consumers turned noticeably more cautious at the start of the second quarter.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The weaker reading may slightly weigh on domestic consumption expectations and keep sentiment toward Korea’s consumer-facing sectors more cautious.

Source: Bank of Korea

South Africa’s Retail Sales (YoY) rose 1.6% in February, well below the 4.8% forecast and slower than the previous 4.4% reading. The data point to a clear loss of momentum in household spending at the start of the year. The sharp miss against expectations suggests consumer demand was much weaker than markets had anticipated, adding to concern about the strength of domestic activity.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The weaker retail reading may weigh modestly on the rand and domestic retail sentiment, as softer consumer demand points to a weaker growth backdrop.

Source: Statistics South Africa

Turkey left its main policy rates unchanged in April, maintaining a tight monetary stance. The One-Week Repo Rate stayed at 37.00%, the Overnight Borrowing Rate remained at 35.50%, and the Overnight Lending Rate was held at 40.00%. The unchanged structure suggests the central bank is keeping policy settings steady while continuing to prioritize inflation control and financial stability.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: Holding rates unchanged may help support policy credibility and keep the lira relatively steadier in the short term, although the broader impact will still depend on inflation and reserve dynamics.

Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye

South Africa’s March inflation data showed a firmer price picture. CPI rose 0.6% MoM, up from 0.4% previously, while annual CPI came in at 3.1%, matching the 3.1% forecast and rising from 3.0%. Core inflation also strengthened, with Core CPI up 0.8% MoM from 0.7%, and Core CPI YoY rising to 3.2% from 3.0%. The data suggest both headline and underlying inflation pressures moved slightly higher in March.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The firmer inflation mix may modestly reduce room for a more dovish policy tone and could keep South African rates and the rand sensitive to future inflation releases.

Source: Statistics South Africa

Turkey’s Consumer Confidence index rose to 85.5 in April from 85.0 previously, showing a modest improvement in household sentiment. The increase suggests consumers became slightly less pessimistic at the start of the second quarter, although the index still remains below the 100 threshold that typically separates optimism from caution.

Importance: Low

Possible Market Effect: The immediate market impact is likely limited, but the small improvement may be mildly supportive for the domestic consumption outlook if the trend continues.

Source: TurkStat / Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye