EconoTicker

South Africa’s trade balance recorded a surplus of 31.87B in March, down from the previous 35.86B. The data still shows a positive external trade position, but with a smaller surplus than before.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

A narrower trade surplus may slightly limit support for the South African rand, though the continued surplus remains broadly positive for the external-balance picture.

Source: South African Revenue Service

Mexico’s preliminary GDP fell 0.8% QoQ in Q1, weaker than the -0.5% forecast and a sharp reversal from the previous 0.9% growth. On a yearly basis, GDP grew only 0.1%, missing the 0.8% forecast and slowing from 1.8% previously.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect:

The weaker GDP data may pressure the Mexican peso and local equities if investors price in slower growth momentum. It could also strengthen expectations for a more cautious policy outlook if economic weakness persists.

Source: INEGI

Brazil’s unemployment rate stood at 6.1% in March, matching the 6.1% forecast but rising from the previous 5.8%. The increase shows a mild weakening in labor-market conditions.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect:

A higher unemployment rate may slightly weaken domestic-demand sentiment, but the market impact could remain limited because the figure was in line with expectations.

Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics

Turkey’s gross FX reserves fell to $60.95B, down from $61.82B. Net FX reserves also declined to 54.23%, compared with the previous 58.38%. The data points to a softer reserve position and may keep attention on Turkey’s external liquidity buffer.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

Lower reserves may weigh mildly on sentiment toward the Turkish lira, especially if markets become more sensitive to external financing and currency-stability risks.

Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye

Brazil’s fiscal data showed renewed pressure in March. Gross debt-to-GDP rose to 80.1%, above the 79.6% forecast and higher than the previous 79.2%. Net debt-to-GDP increased to 66.8% from 65.5%.

The budget balance widened to -199.539B, weaker than the -148.000B forecast and deeper than the previous -100.589B. The reported budget surplus figure also deteriorated to -80.676B, compared with the previous -16.388B.

Importance Level: Medium for gross debt-to-GDP; Low for budget balance and net debt-to-GDP

Possible Market Effect:

Higher debt ratios and a wider deficit may pressure Brazilian bond sentiment and the real if investors become more concerned about fiscal sustainability. The data could also limit the positive market impact of lower interest rates.

Source: Banco Central do Brasil; National Treasury of Brazil

Israel’s Industrial Output rose 5.8% MoM in February, up from the previous 2.5%. The stronger reading signals a sharper rebound in industrial activity.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

Stronger industrial output may support local growth sentiment, but the low importance level suggests limited immediate market reaction.

Source: Central Bureau of Statistics Israel

South Africa’s PPI rose 1.1% MoM in March, up from 0.0% previously. On a yearly basis, PPI increased 2.3%, higher than the previous 1.8%. The data shows a renewed rise in producer-level price pressure.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

Higher producer inflation may slightly support expectations for cautious monetary policy, but the direct market impact on the rand and South African bonds is likely limited unless inflation pressure continues.

Source: Statistics South Africa

South Africa’s budget balance fell to -45.61B in March, reversing the previous 27.28B surplus. The move signals a sharp deterioration in the monthly fiscal position.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

A weaker budget balance may weigh slightly on South African bond and rand sentiment, especially if fiscal pressure persists.

Source: South African National Treasury

Foreign arrivals to Turkey rose 5.00% YoY in March, reversing the previous -2.08% decline. The rebound points to stronger tourism inflows after the earlier weakness.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

Stronger tourist arrivals may support Turkey’s foreign-currency inflows and services balance, offering mild support to the external outlook.

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute / Ministry of Culture and Tourism of Turkey

Turkey’s trade balance recorded a deficit of -11.22B in March, slightly better than the -11.30B forecast but wider than the previous -9.03B deficit. Exports stood at 21.90B, matching the forecast but down from the previous 30.10B.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

The slightly better-than-forecast trade balance may offer limited support to sentiment, but weaker exports and a wider deficit versus the previous month keep pressure on Turkey’s external-balance outlook.

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute

Turkey’s tourism revenue reached 9.90B in Q1, down from the previous 15.15B. The decline points to weaker tourism income compared with the prior period, likely reflecting seasonal patterns and softer travel flows.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

Lower tourism revenue may weigh mildly on Turkey’s current-account outlook and foreign-currency inflows, but the market impact may be limited if the decline is seasonal.

Source: Turkish Statistical Institute

South Africa’s Private Sector Credit growth slowed to 8.50% in March from 10.50% previously, suggesting softer credit momentum. However, M3 Money Supply rose 8.96% YoY, up from the previous 8.38%, showing stronger broad liquidity growth.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

Slower private credit may point to softer borrowing activity, while stronger money supply growth could keep liquidity and inflation expectations in focus. The market impact is likely limited unless the trend continues.

Source: South African Reserve Bank