EconoTicker

Spain’s business confidence improved to -3.7 in May, up from the previous -5.0. The index remains below zero, but the improvement shows business pessimism eased.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect: Better confidence may support Spanish equity sentiment modestly, but the still-negative reading limits the upside.

Market Sentiment: Spanish equities: Neutral

Source: Spain National Statistics Institute

Q&A

Did Spanish business confidence improve?

Yes. It improved from -5.0 to -3.7.

Is Spanish business sentiment positive now?

No. It improved, but it remains negative.

Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in April, better than the 5.9% forecast and down from the previous 6.1%. The data signals stronger labor-market conditions and continued improvement in employment momentum.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect: Lower unemployment is supportive for consumer demand and BRL sentiment, but it can also keep wage and inflation concerns alive.

Market Sentiment: Brazilian real / BRL: Neutral-to-Buy

Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics

Q&A

Did Brazil’s unemployment rate beat expectations?

Yes. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8%, better than the 5.9% forecast.

Is Brazil’s labor market improving?

Yes. Unemployment declined from 6.1% to 5.8%.

Brazil’s bank lending rose 0.3% MoM in April, slowing from the previous 0.9% increase. The data suggests credit growth lost momentum, which may point to softer borrowing demand or tighter financial conditions.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect: Slower credit growth may weigh mildly on domestic-demand sentiment and banking-sector expectations.

Market Sentiment: Brazilian equities: Neutral-to-Sell

Source: Central Bank of Brazil

Q&A

Did Brazil bank lending improve in April?

No. Bank lending growth slowed from 0.9% to 0.3% MoM.

Brazil’s IGP-M inflation index rose 0.84% MoM in May, slowing sharply from the previous 2.73%. However, Brazilian PPI rose 2.63% MoM in April, higher than the previous 2.28%, showing producer-level price pressure remained firm.

The inflation picture is mixed: headline wholesale-style inflation cooled through IGP-M, but producer prices continued to rise.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect: Softer IGP-M can reduce some inflation pressure, but stronger PPI keeps caution alive for the Central Bank of Brazil.

Market Sentiment: Brazilian real / BRL: Neutral

Source: Fundação Getulio Vargas, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics

Q&A

Did Brazil’s IGP-M inflation slow?

Yes. IGP-M inflation slowed from 2.73% to 0.84% MoM.

Is Brazil’s inflation signal clearly dovish?

No. IGP-M slowed, but PPI rose from 2.28% to 2.63%, keeping producer inflation pressure alive.

Israel’s industrial output fell 18.1% MoM in March, reversing sharply from the previous 7.4% increase. The data signals a severe monthly contraction in industrial activity and points to pressure on production momentum.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect: The sharp decline may weigh on Israeli growth sentiment and could pressure local industrial stocks if confirmed by broader activity data.

Market Sentiment: Israeli shekel / ILS: Neutral-to-Sell

Source: Israel Central Bureau of Statistics

Q&A

Did Israel’s industrial output improve in March?

No. Industrial output fell 18.1% MoM, after rising 7.4% previously.

South Africa’s PPI rose 3.0% MoM in April, accelerating from 1.1%. On an annual basis, PPI increased 4.8% YoY, up sharply from 2.3%. The data shows a strong rebound in producer-level inflation pressure.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect: Higher producer inflation may support expectations for tighter policy caution from the South African Reserve Bank, but it can pressure local equities and growth sentiment.

Market Sentiment: ZAR: Neutral-to-Buy | South African Equities: Neutral-to-Sell

Source: Statistics South Africa

Q&A

Did South Africa’s producer inflation rise?

Yes. PPI rose to 4.8% YoY and 3.0% MoM.

Is South Africa’s PPI data positive for ZAR?

Mildly yes from a rate-expectation perspective, but higher inflation can hurt domestic growth sentiment.

Thailand’s industrial production fell 0.36% YoY in April, missing the 0.20% forecast and reversing from the previous 1.30% growth. The data shows factory momentum weakened and moved back into contraction.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect: Weaker production may pressure Thai growth sentiment and weigh mildly on the Thai baht if confirmed by softer exports or domestic demand.

Market Sentiment: Thai baht / THB: Neutral-to-Sell

Source: Thailand Office of Industrial Economics

Q&A

Did Thailand industrial production beat expectations?

No. It fell 0.36%, below the 0.20% forecast.

The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, matching expectations, as policymakers remained cautious about the inflation and growth impact of the Middle East war. The decision was the first under new Governor Shin Hyun-Song, who has warned that higher energy prices from the Iran war could create a renewed inflation threat.

The hold does not mean the BoK is relaxed. South Korea’s chip-driven economic resilience gives the central bank room to consider rate hikes later this year if inflation rises further or the won comes under renewed pressure. However, weak domestic demand and government price-control measures may limit how aggressive the tightening cycle becomes.

Capital Economics said even if the BoK starts tightening later this year, it is unlikely to be aggressive, because inflation may stay above target only temporarily while domestic demand remains soft.

Importance Level: High

Possible Market Effect:

The decision is mildly supportive for the South Korean won because the BoK is keeping a hawkish bias alive. For equities, the signal is mixed: chipmakers may remain supported by AI demand, but higher-rate risk could pressure broader domestic sectors.

Market Sentiment:

South Korean Won / KRW: Neutral-to-Buy

KOSPI: Neutral-to-Buy

South Korean Bonds: Neutral-to-Sell

South Korean Chip Stocks: Buy

BoK Policy Outlook: Cautiously Hawkish

Source: Bank of Korea, Capital Economics

Q&A

Did the Bank of Korea raise interest rates?

No. The Bank of Korea kept rates unchanged at 2.5%.

Is the Bank of Korea still hawkish?

Yes. The BoK remains cautious and may hike later this year if energy-driven inflation or won weakness intensifies.

Is this decision positive for the South Korean won?

Mildly yes. A hawkish hold can support KRW, but the impact depends on inflation, oil prices, and global risk sentiment.

Brazil recorded foreign exchange flows of -$3.648B, reversing from the previous +$3.026B inflow. The move indicates net FX outflows, which can weaken external-flow sentiment and create pressure on the Brazilian real.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect: Negative FX flows may weigh on BRL sentiment, especially if combined with weaker commodity flows or stronger dollar conditions.

Market Sentiment: Brazilian real / BRL: Neutral-to-Sell

Source: Central Bank of Brazil

Q&A

Did Brazil record FX inflows or outflows?

Brazil recorded net FX outflows of $3.648B.

Is Brazil’s FX flow data positive for BRL?

No. Negative FX flows are mildly negative for BRL sentiment.

Brazil’s mid-month CPI rose 0.62% MoM in May, above the 0.53% forecast but slower than the previous 0.89%. On an annual basis, inflation accelerated to 4.64% YoY, above the 4.55% forecast and higher than the previous 4.37%.

The report shows that monthly inflation cooled from the previous reading, but annual inflation pressure is still rising and came in hotter than expected.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect: Higher-than-expected inflation may support tighter policy expectations and help the Brazilian real, but it can pressure local equities if markets expect rates to stay restrictive.

Market Sentiment: BRL: Neutral-to-Buy | Brazilian equities: Neutral-to-Sell

Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics / IBGE

Q&A

Did Brazil’s mid-month CPI beat expectations?

Yes. Monthly CPI rose 0.62%, above the 0.53% forecast, while annual CPI reached 4.64%.

Is Brazil’s inflation data positive for BRL?

Mildly yes. Higher inflation can support tighter policy expectations, which may support BRL.

Brazil’s current account recorded a $1.77B deficit in April, worse than the $0.20B deficit forecast but much better than the previous $6.04B deficit. At the same time, foreign direct investment rose to $8.91B, beating the $5.30B forecast and improving from the previous $6.04B.

The overall external picture is mixed but constructive: the current-account deficit was larger than expected, yet strong FDI inflows more than offset the pressure and show continued foreign investment support.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

Strong FDI inflows may support confidence in Brazilian assets and the real, but the wider-than-forecast current-account deficit limits the positive reaction.

Market Sentiment: Brazilian Real / BRL: Neutral-to-Buy

Source: Central Bank of Brazil

Q&A

Did Brazil’s current account improve in April?

Yes, compared with the previous month. The deficit narrowed from $6.04B to $1.77B, but it was still worse than the $0.20B forecast.

Was Brazil’s FDI data strong?

Yes. FDI rose to $8.91B, above the $5.30B forecast and the previous $6.04B.

Taiwan’s industrial production rose 14.16% YoY in April, sharply slower than the previous 26.12%. No forecast was provided. Although production remains in strong positive territory, the slowdown suggests momentum is cooling from a very high base.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect:

The slowdown may limit upside sentiment for Taiwan’s export and technology-linked sectors, although double-digit growth still shows solid industrial activity.

Market Sentiment: Taiwan Dollar / TWD: Neutral

Source: Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs

Q&A

Is Taiwan's industrial production still growing?

Yes. It rose 14.16% YoY, which is still strong.

Why is Taiwan’s industrial production report mixed?

Because growth remains positive, but it has slowed sharply from the previous 26.12%.