EconoTicker

Taiwan’s export orders rose 48.1% YoY in April, remaining strong but slowing sharply from the previous 65.9%. The slowdown suggests export momentum is still positive but less powerful than the previous month.

External-account data were softer. The balance of payments stood at -4.660B in Q1, wider than the previous -1.000B. The current account surplus fell to 62.53B from 69.93B, showing a weaker external surplus position.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect: Strong export orders remain supportive for Taiwan’s technology-linked economy, but the weaker balance of payments and lower current account surplus limit the positive signal for TWD.

Overall Market Sentiment: Neutral for TWD

Q&A

Are Taiwan’s export orders still growing? Yes. Export orders rose 48.1% YoY, though slower than the previous 65.9%.

Did Taiwan’s current account surplus improve in Q1? No. It fell to 62.53B from 69.93B.

Source: Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs; Central Bank of the Republic of China / Taiwan

Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate to 5.25%, above the 5.00% forecast and higher than the previous 4.75%. The deposit facility rate also increased to 4.25%, above the 4.00% forecast and previous 3.75%, while the lending facility rate rose to 6.00%, above the 5.75% forecast and previous 5.50%.

Credit activity also improved, with Loans YoY rising to 9.98% in April from 9.49% previously. The data show that Bank Indonesia is prioritizing inflation and currency stability while credit growth remains resilient.

Importance Level: Medium

Possible Market Effect: The rate hike is supportive for the Indonesian rupiah, as higher yields can attract capital inflows and defend the currency. However, tighter policy may weigh on domestic growth-sensitive equities.

Overall Market Sentiment: Buy / Positive for IDR

Q&A

Did Indonesia raise interest rates more than expected? Yes. The benchmark rate rose to 5.25%, above the 5.00% forecast.

Is Indonesia’s loan growth still strong? Yes. Loan growth improved to 9.98% YoY from 9.49%.

Source: Bank Indonesia

Malaysia’s April trade data showed a strong external-sector performance. Exports rose 36.9% YoY, far above the 9.0% forecast and sharply stronger than the previous 8.4%. Imports increased 20.0% YoY, also much stronger than the 2.5% forecast and the previous 10.4%.

The trade balance widened to 28.80B, beating the 16.60B forecast and improving from the previous 24.50B. The data suggest that Malaysia’s trade momentum strengthened significantly, with exports leading the improvement.

Importance Level: Low

Possible Market Effect: Strong exports and a wider trade surplus are positive for Malaysia’s external balance and may support MYR sentiment, although the direct global market impact is likely limited.

Overall Market Sentiment: Neutral-to-Buy for MYR

Q&A

Did Malaysia’s April exports beat expectations? Yes. Exports rose 36.9% YoY, far above the 9.0% forecast.

Is Malaysia’s trade balance improving? Yes. The trade surplus widened to 28.80B, above the 16.60B forecast and the previous 24.50B.

Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia

Importance: Low

Market Sentiment: BRL Neutral-to-Sell

Brazil’s service-sector activity weakened on a monthly basis in March. Service Sector Growth (MoM) fell 1.2%, down from 0.0% previously. However, the annual reading improved, with Service Sector Growth (YoY) rising 3.0%, up from 0.4%.

Possible Market Effect:

The signal is mixed but slightly negative for BRL. Monthly contraction shows near-term weakness, while annual growth still points to a better broader trend.

Q&A

Did Brazil’s services sector grow in March?

On a monthly basis, no. Services fell 1.2% MoM. On an annual basis, services grew 3.0% YoY.

Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, IBGE

Importance: Low

Market Sentiment: KRW Neutral-to-Buy

South Korea’s Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI rose to 46.57 in May, up from 44.86 previously. The increase points to better household sentiment, though the index remains below the neutral 50 level.

Possible Market Effect:

The data are mildly supportive of KRW and domestic-demand expectations, but the impact should remain limited because the index is still below neutral.

Q&A

Did South Korea’s consumer sentiment improve in May?

Yes. South Korea’s PCSI rose to 46.57 from 44.86.

Source: Thomson Reuters / Ipsos

Importance: Low

Market Sentiment: KRW Neutral-to-Sell

South Korea’s price data showed strong external price pressure in April. Export Price Index (YoY) jumped 40.8%, sharply higher than the previous 29.5%, suggesting strong export-price momentum. Meanwhile, the Import Price Index (YoY) eased slightly to 20.2% from 20.4%, but remained very elevated.

Possible Market Effect:

The data are mixed for KRW. Strong export prices can support external earnings, but high import prices keep inflation pressure alive and may weigh on domestic purchasing power.

Q&A

Did South Korea’s export prices accelerate in April?

Yes. Export prices rose 40.8% YoY, up from 29.5%.

Are South Korea’s import prices still high?

Yes. Import prices rose 20.2% YoY, only slightly lower than the previous 20.4%.

Source: Bank of Korea

Importance: Low

Market Sentiment: ZAR Neutral-to-Buy

South Africa’s Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI rose to 48.71 in May, slightly above the previous 48.49. The reading remains below the neutral 50 level, but the direction is mildly positive.

Possible Market Effect:

The data are slightly supportive for ZAR and domestic-demand sentiment, though the market impact should be limited.

Q&A

Did South Africa’s consumer sentiment improve in May?

Yes. South Africa’s PCSI rose to 48.71 from 48.49.

Source: Thomson Reuters / Ipsos

Importance: Low

Market Sentiment: BRL Neutral-to-Sell

Brazil’s Foreign Exchange Flows fell to -1.438B, reversing from the previous 3.307B inflow. The shift from positive inflow to outflow suggests weaker foreign-currency liquidity conditions and reduced external support for the Brazilian real.

Although this is a low-importance release, the reversal matters because Brazil’s currency can be sensitive to capital-flow conditions, commodity prices, and global risk appetite.

Possible Market Effect:

The data are mildly negative for the Brazilian real. A move into FX outflows can pressure BRL, especially if the U.S. dollar remains strong and global risk sentiment weakens.

Q&A

Did Brazil’s foreign exchange flows improve?

No. FX flows moved from a 3.307B inflow to a 1.438B outflow.

Is this negative for the Brazilian real?

Mildly yes. FX outflows reduce external support for BRL and can increase currency pressure.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil

Importance: Low

Market Sentiment: BRL Neutral-to-Buy

Brazil’s Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI rose to 52.35 in May, up from 49.22 previously. The improvement shows stronger consumer confidence and a better household sentiment backdrop.

Possible Market Effect:

The data are mildly positive for Brazilian growth sentiment and the Brazilian real, especially if stronger confidence supports consumption. However, the direct market impact is likely limited.

Q&A

Did Brazil’s consumer sentiment improve in May?

Yes. Brazil’s PCSI rose to 52.35 from 49.22.

Source: Thomson Reuters / Ipsos

Importance: Low

Market Sentiment: BRL Neutral-to-Buy

Brazil’s retail sales data came in stronger than expected in March. Retail Sales (MoM) rose 0.5%, beating the 0.0% forecast, though slowing from the previous 0.7% increase. On an annual basis, Retail Sales rose 4.0%, clearly above the 2.8% forecast and much stronger than the previous 0.4% reading.

The data show a stronger consumer-demand signal, especially on a yearly basis.

Possible Market Effect:

The report is mildly positive for Brazil’s growth outlook and the Brazilian real. However, stronger retail activity may also keep some pressure on inflation expectations if demand stays firm.

BRL Sentiment: Neutral-to-Buy

Q&A

Did Brazil’s March retail sales beat expectations?

Yes. Monthly retail sales rose 0.5% versus a 0.0% forecast, while annual sales grew 4.0% versus 2.8% expected.

Is Brazil’s consumer demand improving?

Yes. Annual retail sales accelerated strongly from 0.4% to 4.0%.

Source: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, IBGE

Importance: High

Market Sentiment: EU Semiconductors & AI Infrastructure Neutral-to-Buy / China-Linked Tech Supply Chains Neutral-to-Sell

The European Union is negotiating potential entry into the U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative, a technology-security alliance designed to protect supply chains for semiconductors, artificial intelligence infrastructure, critical minerals, and data centers. Bloomberg reported that the European Commission is exploring participation as global competition with China intensifies and Western governments try to reduce reliance on Chinese exports in strategic technologies.

The talks are still at an early and technical stage. Brussels is trying to build a unified EU position, but some officials remain uncertain about the alliance’s final scope and objectives. Member states such as Sweden and Finland have already moved toward joining independently, while France remains a key holdout as officials seek more technical clarification and political conditions before supporting a bloc-wide move.

For markets, the initiative reinforces the long-term decoupling theme in global technology. A formal EU move into Pax Silica would likely benefit European and U.S. companies linked to chip equipment, AI data centers, advanced manufacturing, cybersecurity, and critical minerals, while increasing pressure on China-linked semiconductor and high-tech export channels. Similar U.S.-led supply-chain security efforts have already included projects and partnerships across AI, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, and data infrastructure.

Possible Market Effect:

This is Neutral-to-Buy for EU and U.S. semiconductor infrastructure, AI hardware, critical-mineral, and data-center names. It is Neutral-to-Sell for China-linked technology supply chains because tighter alliance rules could restrict access to trusted Western tech ecosystems. The policy direction also supports a longer-term premium for secure supply chains, even if it raises costs and regulatory complexity.

Q&A

Why is the EU’s possible entry into Pax Silica important for semiconductor markets?

It could align Europe more closely with the U.S. on secure semiconductor and AI supply chains, strengthening Western coordination against China-linked supply dependencies.

Which sectors could benefit from the EU joining Pax Silica?

Semiconductor equipment, AI hardware, data centers, critical minerals, cybersecurity, and advanced manufacturing could benefit from higher investment and supply-chain security demand.

Is Pax Silica negative for China-linked technology supply chains?

Potentially yes. If the alliance tightens rules around trusted suppliers, Chinese export channels in semiconductors, AI infrastructure, and critical minerals may face more restrictions.

Source: Bloomberg, Reuters

Importance: Low

Market Sentiment: KRW Neutral-to-Sell

South Korea’s money supply indicators weakened in March. M3 Money Supply declined to 6,142.5B, down from 6,171.3B previously. M2 Money Supply growth slowed to 7.20%, down from 8.20%.

The data suggest a softer liquidity backdrop, with slower money growth in the Korean economy.

Possible Market Effect:

The signal is mildly negative for KRW and domestic liquidity sentiment, but the market impact should remain limited because money-supply data are usually not a major short-term FX driver.

KRW Sentiment: Neutral-to-Sell

Q&A

Did South Korea’s M2 money supply growth slow?

Yes. M2 money supply growth fell to 7.20% from 8.20%.

Did South Korea’s M3 money supply decline?

Yes. M3 money supply fell to 6,142.5B from 6,171.3B.

Source: Bank of Korea