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In June 2026, Indonesia's car sales experienced year-on-year growth of 12.0%, down from the previous month's 14.0%. This slowdown in car registrations may indicate a cooling demand in the automotive sector, reflecting broader economic conditions. The data was released on Friday, July 10, 2026, at 12:00 AM.

Possible Market Effect: Potentially bearish for automotive stocks as demand appears to be weakening.

Q&A:

Q: What was the year-on-year growth rate for car sales in Indonesia in June 2026?

A: The year-on-year growth rate for car sales in Indonesia in June 2026 was 12.0%.

Q: How does the June 2026 car sales growth compare to the previous month?

A: The June 2026 car sales growth of 12.0% is lower than the previous month's growth of 14.0%.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The slowdown in growth may lead to cautious sentiment in the automotive market.

Importance level: High

The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 from 3.1% to 3.0%, citing the lasting impact of the energy shock caused by the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran.

The IMF also projected that global inflation will reach 4.7% in 2026, showing that higher energy costs remain a major risk for the world economy.

However, the Fund expects global growth to recover to 3.4% in 2027, assuming tensions ease and the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens.

Possible market effect:

This is negative for global growth sentiment and supportive for energy-risk pricing. Lower growth forecasts can pressure equities and risk-sensitive assets, while persistent inflation concerns may keep central banks cautious. Oil and safe-haven assets may stay supported if the Strait of Hormuz risk remains elevated.

Market sentiment:

Global equities: Neutral to sell

Oil: Buyable if Hormuz risk continues

U.S. dollar: Neutral to buyable as safe haven

Gold: Neutral to buyable

Global bonds: Mixed; growth fears vs inflation risk

Q: Why did the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast?

A: The IMF lowered the forecast because of the lasting energy shock caused by the war against Iran.

Q: What is the IMF’s new global growth forecast for 2026?

A: The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.0%.

Q: What does the IMF expect for 2027?

A: The IMF expects global growth to rise to 3.4% in 2027, assuming tensions ease and the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens.

Source: International Monetary Fund

Importance level: Medium

Mexico’s inflation data softened in June 2026. CPI fell 0.27% month-on-month, weaker than the -0.13% forecast and below the previous -0.21% reading. Annual CPI slowed to 3.37%, below the 3.52% forecast and down from the previous 3.94%.

Core inflation also eased. Core inflation rose 4.03% year-on-year, below the 4.10% forecast and down from 4.19%. Core CPI rose 0.24% month-on-month, below the 0.31% forecast but slightly above the previous 0.22%.

Producer-price data also softened. PPI fell 0.90% month-on-month, compared with the previous 0.40% increase, while annual PPI slowed to 2.10% from 2.90%.

Possible market effect:

This is dovish for Mexico’s rate outlook. Softer headline CPI, core inflation, and PPI reduce pressure on Banxico to keep policy restrictive for longer. The data may be mildly negative for the Mexican peso if markets price easier policy, but supportive for Mexican bonds.

Market sentiment:

Mexican peso: Neutral to slightly sell

Mexican bonds: Buyable

Mexican equities: Neutral to slightly positive

Banxico outlook: Less hawkish

Q: Did Mexico’s inflation cool in June 2026?

A: Yes. Annual CPI slowed to 3.37% from 3.94%, while core inflation eased to 4.03% from 4.19%.

Q: Was Mexico’s monthly CPI weaker than expected?

A: Yes. Monthly CPI fell 0.27%, compared with the forecast for a 0.13% decline.

Q: Is this data positive or negative for the Mexican peso?

A: It is slightly negative for the peso because softer inflation may increase expectations for easier Banxico policy.

Source: INEGI

Importance level: Low

Turkey’s reserve data improved strongly. Gross FX Reserves rose to $61.95 billion, up from $54.25 billion. Net FX Reserves increased to 55.04%, compared with the previous 45.39%.

The stronger reserve position can help improve confidence in Turkey’s external buffers and reduce pressure on currency-stability concerns.

Possible market effect:

This is mildly positive for the Turkish lira and Turkish risk sentiment. Stronger reserves may support confidence, although inflation, monetary policy credibility, and external financing conditions remain critical.

Market sentiment:

Turkish lira: Neutral to slightly buyable

Turkish equities: Neutral to slightly positive

Turkey sovereign risk: Slightly improved

Q: Did Turkey’s FX reserves improve?

A: Yes. Gross FX Reserves increased to $61.95 billion, up from $54.25 billion.

Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye

Importance level: Low

South Africa’s manufacturing data remained weak in May 2026. Manufacturing Production fell 4.3% year-on-year, deeper than the previous 2.9% decline.

However, the monthly reading improved. Manufacturing Production rose 1.1% month-on-month, reversing the previous 2.6% decline. This suggests a short-term rebound, but the annual contraction still points to pressure on industrial activity.

Possible market effect:

This is mixed for South African assets. The monthly rebound is positive, but the deeper annual contraction keeps the growth signal weak.

Market sentiment:

South African rand: Neutral to slightly sell

South African equities: Mixed

Industrial sector: Weak but stabilizing

Q: Did South Africa’s manufacturing production improve in May 2026?

A: Monthly production improved by 1.1%, but annual production still fell 4.3%.

Source: Statistics South Africa

Importance level: Low

The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos PCSI showed mostly stronger consumer sentiment across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa in July 2026, although Germany and the UK weakened.

France’s PCSI improved to 41.57 from 38.66, while Italy’s PCSI rose to 45.85 from 43.71. Spain’s PCSI moved above the neutral 50 level, rising to 50.64 from 49.70.

Outside the euro area, Israel’s PCSI increased to 50.80 from 47.74, Saudi Arabia’s PCSI strengthened to 70.21 from 68.45, Turkey’s PCSI rose to 38.0 from 35.8, and South Africa’s PCSI improved to 48.25 from 46.23.

The weaker readings came from Germany, where PCSI slipped to 42.28 from 43.22, and the UK, where PCSI fell to 46.2 from 47.4.

Possible market effect:

The data is mildly positive for consumer-demand sentiment in France, Italy, Spain, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and South Africa. However, weaker German and UK readings show that household confidence remains fragile in major European economies. Market impact is limited because this is a low-importance sentiment indicator.

Market sentiment:

Euro: Neutral to slightly positive

German equities: Neutral to slightly negative

Spanish and Italian domestic stocks: Neutral to slightly positive

British pound: Neutral to slightly negative

Saudi equities: Slightly positive

Turkey and South Africa sentiment: Improving, but still fragile

Q: Which country had the strongest PCSI reading in July 2026?

A: Saudi Arabia had the strongest reading at 70.21, up from 68.45.

Q: Which major European economies weakened?

A: Germany fell to 42.28 from 43.22, and the UK declined to 46.2 from 47.4.

Q: Is the July 2026 PCSI data positive for Europe?

A: It is mixed but slightly positive, because France, Italy and Spain improved, while Germany and the UK weakened.

Source: Thomson Reuters/Ipsos

On July 9, 2026, Mexico released its latest inflation figures, revealing a mixed bag of results. The Core Inflation Rate for June showed a month-on-month increase of 0.24%, slightly above the forecast of 0.2% but below the consensus of 0.31%. Year-on-year, the Core Inflation Rate stood at 4.03%, marginally lower than the expected 4.1% and down from the previous 4.19%.

In terms of overall inflation, the month-on-month rate fell by 0.27%, worse than the forecast of -0.1% and the previous -0.21%. The year-on-year inflation rate also decreased to 3.37%, falling short of the forecast of 3.5% and down from 3.94%.

Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) reported a month-on-month decline of 0.87%, significantly worse than the anticipated -0.1%, and the year-on-year PPI growth was recorded at 2.10%, below the forecast of 2.7%. These figures indicate ongoing challenges for the Mexican economy as it navigates inflationary pressures.

Possible Market Effect: The mixed inflation data may lead to cautious sentiment in the Mexican market, with potential implications for monetary policy.

Q&A:

Q: What was the month-on-month Core Inflation Rate in Mexico for June 2026?

A: The month-on-month Core Inflation Rate was 0.24%.

Q: How did the year-on-year inflation rate in Mexico compare to forecasts for June 2026?

A: The year-on-year inflation rate was 3.37%, which was below the forecast of 3.5%.

Market Sentiment: Neutral - The mixed results suggest uncertainty in inflation trends, leading to a cautious market outlook.

Importance level: Low

Taiwan’s trade data weakened in June 2026, as the trade surplus narrowed to $12.20 billion, below the $19.30 billion forecast and down from the previous $17.91 billion.

The export side was the main disappointment. Exports rose 40.3% year-on-year, missing the 48.6% forecast and slowing from the previous 51.7% growth. Meanwhile, imports increased 51.80% year-on-year, above the 47.80% forecast but below the previous 54.90%.

The report suggests that Taiwan’s external demand remained strong, but export momentum cooled more than expected, while elevated imports reduced the trade surplus.

Possible market effect:

This data is mildly negative for Taiwan’s trade-sensitive assets. Slower export growth may pressure sentiment toward Taiwan’s export and technology supply-chain stocks, while stronger imports can signal still-solid domestic or industrial demand. The overall effect is mixed but slightly negative for the Taiwan dollar.

Market sentiment:

Taiwan dollar: Neutral to slightly sell

Taiwan equities: Mixed

Technology exporters: Neutral to slightly negative

Import-sensitive sectors: Neutral

Trade outlook: Still strong, but cooling

Q: Did Taiwan’s trade surplus improve in June 2026?

A: No. Taiwan’s trade surplus narrowed to $12.20 billion, below the $19.30 billion forecast and the previous $17.91 billion.

Q: Was Taiwan’s export growth weaker than expected?

A: Yes. Exports rose 40.3% year-on-year, below the 48.6% forecast and slower than the previous 51.7%.

Q: Is this trade report positive or negative for Taiwan markets?

A: It is mixed but slightly negative, because imports beat forecasts but export growth slowed more than expected.

Source: Taiwan Ministry of Finance

Importance level: Medium

Bank Negara Malaysia kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, matching both the 2.75% forecast and the previous 2.75% level.

The decision signals policy stability, suggesting Malaysia’s central bank is not moving toward immediate easing or tightening. With rates unchanged, markets will likely focus on inflation trends, domestic demand, the ringgit, and external trade conditions for the next policy direction.

Possible market effect:

This is neutral for Malaysian assets. The unchanged rate may support stability in the Malaysian ringgit and local bonds, but it does not provide a strong new catalyst for equities or currency markets.

Market sentiment:

Malaysian ringgit: Neutral

Malaysian equities: Neutral

Malaysian bonds: Neutral to slightly positive

Policy outlook: Stable

Q: Did Bank Negara Malaysia change interest rates?

A: No. The interest rate remained unchanged at 2.75%.

Q: Was the decision expected?

A: Yes. The actual rate of 2.75% matched the forecast and the previous level.

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia

Importance level: Low

Thailand’s consumer confidence index rose to 50.7 in June 2026, up from the previous 49.5. The move above 50 suggests consumer sentiment improved and moved into more constructive territory.

Possible market effect:

This is mildly positive for Thai domestic-demand sentiment and consumer-related equities. The effect on the baht is likely limited unless stronger confidence translates into better spending data.

Market sentiment:

Thai baht: Neutral to slightly buyable

Thai equities: Slightly positive

Consumer sector: Neutral to positive

Q: Did Thailand’s consumer confidence improve in June 2026?

A: Yes. The index rose to 50.7 from 49.5.

Source: Thailand consumer confidence data

Importance level: Low

Malaysia’s industrial production rose 8.4% year-on-year in May 2026, slightly above the previous 8.2% but below the 9.5% forecast. The data shows that industrial activity remained strong, but momentum was weaker than markets expected.

At the same time, Bank Negara Malaysia kept the interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, matching both the 2.75% forecast and the previous 2.75% rate.

Possible market effect:

The industrial data is mixed for Malaysian assets. Strong production growth supports the growth outlook, but the miss versus forecast limits the positive effect. The unchanged interest rate should keep monetary-policy expectations stable.

Market sentiment:

Malaysian ringgit: Neutral

Malaysian equities: Neutral to slightly positive

Industrial sector: Positive but below expectations

Malaysia bonds: Neutral after unchanged rate

Q: Was Malaysia’s industrial production strong in May 2026?

A: Yes, it rose 8.4% year-on-year, but it missed the 9.5% forecast.

Q: Did Bank Negara Malaysia change interest rates?

A: No. The interest rate stayed unchanged at 2.75%.

Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia; Bank Negara Malaysia

Importance level: Low

Indonesia’s retail sales fell 3.9% year-on-year in May 2026, deepening from the previous 3.7% decline. The data signals continued weakness in household spending and softer domestic-demand momentum.

Possible market effect:

This is slightly negative for Indonesian consumer stocks and domestic-growth sentiment. The impact on the rupiah may be limited unless weaker consumption becomes a broader trend.

Market sentiment:

Indonesian rupiah: Neutral to slightly sell

Indonesian equities: Neutral to slightly negative

Consumer sector: Weak

Q: Did Indonesia’s retail sales improve in May 2026?

A: No. Retail sales fell 3.9% year-on-year, worse than the previous 3.7% decline.

Source: Bank Indonesia / retail sales data