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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیImportance level: Low
Malaysia’s FX reserves increased to $132.6 billion, compared with the previous $130.5 billion.
The rise suggests a modest improvement in Malaysia’s external liquidity buffer and may support confidence in the country’s ability to manage currency and external-payment pressures.
Possible market effect:
This is mildly positive for the Malaysian ringgit, though the direct market effect is likely limited unless supported by stronger trade, commodity, or capital-flow data.
Market sentiment:
USD/MYR: Neutral to slightly negative
Malaysian ringgit: Neutral to slightly positive
Malaysia bonds: Neutral
Q: What were Malaysia’s latest FX reserves?
A: Malaysia’s FX reserves rose to $132.6 billion, up from $130.5 billion.
Q: Is this positive for the Malaysian ringgit?
A: It is slightly positive, because higher reserves improve external liquidity confidence.
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Importance level: Low
South Africa’s foreign reserves declined in June, with Foreign Reserves falling to $74.11 billion from $76.53 billion. Net FX Reserves also dropped to $71.338 billion, compared with the previous $73.467 billion.
The decline suggests a modest reduction in South Africa’s external liquidity buffer, though reserve levels remain sizeable.
Possible market effect:
This is mildly negative for the South African rand, especially if combined with weaker commodity prices or broader emerging-market risk aversion. However, the direct market impact is likely limited unless reserves continue to fall in coming months.
Market sentiment:
USD/ZAR: Neutral to slightly buyable
South African rand: Neutral to slightly negative
South African bonds: Neutral to slightly negative
Q: What were South Africa’s foreign reserves in June?
A: South Africa’s foreign reserves fell to $74.11 billion, down from $76.53 billion.
Q: What happened to South Africa’s net FX reserves?
A: Net FX reserves declined to $71.338 billion, compared with the previous $73.467 billion.
Source: South African Reserve Bank
Importance level: Low
Philippine inflation delivered a mixed signal in June. Headline CPI YoY slowed to 6.4%, below the forecast of 6.6% and down from the previous 6.8%, showing that overall inflation pressure eased.
On a monthly basis, CPI MoM fell 0.3%, compared with the forecast of a 0.1% rise and the previous 0.5% decline. This points to softer short-term price momentum.
However, Core CPI YoY rose to 4.4%, above the forecast and previous reading of 4.1%. This shows that underlying inflation pressure remained sticky even as headline inflation cooled.
Possible market effect:
The data is mixed for the Philippine peso. Lower headline inflation is supportive for consumer conditions and may reduce pressure for tighter policy, but higher core inflation could keep the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cautious.
Market sentiment:
PHP: Neutral
Philippine equities: Neutral to slightly positive
Philippine bonds: Neutral
Q: Did Philippine inflation cool in June?
A: Yes. Headline CPI slowed to 6.4% YoY, below the forecast of 6.6% and the previous 6.8%.
Q: Why is the Philippine inflation report mixed?
A: It is mixed because headline inflation cooled, but Core CPI rose to 4.4%, showing sticky underlying price pressure.
Q: Is this inflation data positive or negative for the Philippine peso?
A: It is mostly neutral for PHP, because softer headline inflation is balanced by stronger core inflation.
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority
Importance level: Low
The Bank of Israel kept its interest rate unchanged at 3.50% in July, in line with expectations. The previous rate was 3.75%.
The decision suggests the central bank is maintaining a cautious policy stance while monitoring inflation, growth conditions, and financial-market stability.
Possible market effect:
Because the decision matched expectations, the direct market reaction should be limited. The hold is broadly neutral for the Israeli shekel, unless the central bank’s guidance signals a stronger policy shift.
Market sentiment:
ILS: Neutral
Israeli equities: Neutral to slightly positive
Israeli bonds: Neutral
Q: What did the Bank of Israel decide in July?
A: The Bank of Israel kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.50%.
Q: Is this decision positive or negative for the Israeli shekel?
A: It is mostly neutral for ILS, because the decision matched expectations.
Source: Bank of Israel
Importance level: Low
Mexico’s Gross Fixed Investment improved sharply in April, signaling stronger capital spending and business investment momentum.
On an annual basis, Gross Fixed Investment rose 5.90% YoY, beating the forecast of 3.80% and recovering from the previous 2.60% decline. On a monthly basis, investment increased 4.00% MoM, also above expectations of 3.00% and stronger than the previous 0.40% rise.
Possible market effect:
This data is mildly positive for Mexico’s growth outlook and investment sentiment. It may support the Mexican peso and Mexican equities, especially industrial and infrastructure-related sectors, although the direct market impact is limited because the importance level is low.
Market sentiment:
MXN: Neutral to slightly buyable
Mexican equities: Slightly positive
Q: How did Mexico’s Gross Fixed Investment perform in April?
A: It rose 5.90% YoY and 4.00% MoM, both above forecasts.
Q: Is Mexico’s investment data positive for the Mexican peso?
A: It is mildly positive for MXN, but the market impact may remain limited because the data has low importance.
Source: INEGI
Importance level: Low
Taiwan’s FX Reserves declined to $597.15 billion in June, down from the previous reading of $605.07 billion.
The decline shows a reduction in Taiwan’s foreign-exchange reserve holdings, although the level remains large. For markets, the figure may be watched as a sign of external stability, currency-management capacity, and broader capital-flow conditions.
Possible market effect:
The decline is mildly negative for the Taiwan dollar, but the market impact should remain limited because Taiwan’s reserves remain substantial and the data has low importance.
Market sentiment:
TWD: Neutral to slightly sell
Taiwan equities: Neutral
Q: What were Taiwan’s FX reserves in June?
A: Taiwan’s FX reserves fell to $597.15 billion in June from $605.07 billion.
Q: Is the decline in Taiwan’s FX reserves a major concern?
A: Not immediately. The decline is mildly negative, but Taiwan’s reserves remain large.
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of China / Taiwan FX reserve data
Concerns over a new wave of investment announcements by South Korean memory chipmakers and Meta’s (NASDAQ: META) plan to sell excess computing capacity may be overstating the risk of a downturn in the memory cycle, according to Nomura analysts.
Nomura said Korean memory companies and affiliates recently announced long-term investment plans totaling about 4.8 quadrillion won, equal to roughly $3.5 trillion. Around 3.7 quadrillion won of that amount is directly tied to memory-related projects, raising investor concerns about potential oversupply.
However, Nomura argued that the market is still facing a severe shortage driven by AI demand. Producers are prioritizing high-margin high-bandwidth memory (HBM), while supply of commodity DRAM and NAND remains constrained.
The brokerage also said these projects are unlikely to materially affect supply for several years because semiconductor clusters require long development timelines. Nomura estimated that the Yongin Semiconductor Cluster, launched nine years ago, may not begin small-scale production until late 2027, implying a lead time of more than a decade from initial investment to meaningful output.
Nomura also dismissed concerns that Meta’s plan to market surplus computing power signals weaker AI hardware demand. The firm said monetizing excess data-center capacity is a natural step for large platforms and could improve returns on invested capital, while potentially supporting AI customers such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
Instead of reducing AI-related hardware demand, Nomura said lower computing costs could stimulate additional usage.
Possible market effect:
This view is supportive for memory-chip and AI infrastructure sentiment. If Nomura’s assessment is correct, oversupply fears may be exaggerated, while HBM demand and constrained DRAM/NAND supply could continue to support pricing power for memory producers. The impact is also mildly positive for AI-linked semiconductor stocks, but investors may remain selective because valuations are already elevated.
Market sentiment:
South Korean memory chipmakers: Neutral to buyable
HBM-related semiconductor stocks: Buyable, but valuation-sensitive
Commodity DRAM/NAND producers: Neutral to slightly positive
Meta: Neutral to slightly positive
Nasdaq / AI trade: Neutral to mildly buyable
Q: Why does Nomura think memory-chip oversupply fears are overstated?
A: Nomura believes AI demand is creating a severe shortage, while producers are focusing on high-margin HBM and leaving commodity DRAM and NAND supply constrained.
Q: How large were the announced Korean memory investment plans?
A: The announced long-term plans totaled about 4.8 quadrillion won, or roughly $3.5 trillion, with about 3.7 quadrillion won tied directly to memory projects.
Q: Is the AI semiconductor trade still buyable?
A: It remains selectively buyable, especially in HBM and AI infrastructure names, but investors should watch valuation risk and any signs of supply catching up.
Source: Nomura
Importance level: Low
Singapore’s Retail Sales YoY increased by 3.0% in May, slowing from the previous reading of 5.4%. Although annual retail sales remained positive, the pace of growth weakened clearly compared with the previous period.
On a monthly basis, Retail Sales MoM fell by 2.3% in May, reversing from the previous 0.4% increase. This monthly decline shows weaker short-term consumer spending momentum in Singapore.
Possible market effect:
The data is mildly negative for Singapore’s domestic-demand outlook. Slower annual growth and a sharp monthly decline may pressure consumer-related stocks, especially retail and discretionary sectors. However, because the importance level is low, the direct impact on the Singapore dollar may remain limited.
Market sentiment:
SGD: Neutral to slightly sell
Singapore consumer stocks: Neutral to slightly negative
Q: Did Singapore retail sales remain positive in May?
A: Yes. Singapore’s Retail Sales YoY rose by 3.0%, but growth slowed from 5.4%.
Q: What does the monthly Singapore retail sales decline show?
A: The 2.3% MoM decline suggests weaker short-term consumer spending momentum.
Q: Is this data positive or negative for the Singapore dollar?
A: It is slightly negative, but mostly neutral for SGD, because the data has low market importance.
Source: Singapore Department of Statistics / SingStat
Importance level: Low
Thailand’s inflation data delivered a mixed signal in June. Core CPI YoY increased to 1.23%, up from the previous reading of 0.92%, showing stronger underlying price pressure.
However, headline CPI YoY slowed to 2.42%, compared with the previous reading of 2.79%. This suggests that overall consumer inflation eased, even while core inflation moved higher.
Possible market effect:
The data is mixed for the Thai market. Higher core inflation may keep the Bank of Thailand cautious, but slower headline inflation reduces pressure for tighter policy. The direct impact may remain limited because the importance level is low.
Market sentiment:
THB: Neutral
Thai equities: Neutral to slightly positive
Q: What was Thailand’s Core CPI in June?
A: Thailand’s Core CPI rose to 1.23% YoY in June.
Q: What was Thailand’s headline CPI in June?
A: Thailand’s headline CPI slowed to 2.42% YoY in June, down from 2.79%.
Q: Is Thailand’s June inflation data positive or negative for the Thai baht?
A: The data is mostly neutral for THB, because stronger core inflation is balanced by weaker headline inflation.
Source: Thailand Ministry of Commerce
Importance level: Low
Saudi Arabia’s Riyad Bank Composite PMI increased to 53.3 in June, up from 52.8 previously. The reading remained above the key 50 expansion threshold, showing that private-sector business activity continued to grow at a stronger pace.
Possible market effect:
The data is positive for Saudi non-oil economic momentum and may support sentiment toward Saudi equities, especially sectors linked to domestic demand and services. The direct impact on the Saudi riyal is limited because the currency is pegged to the US dollar.
Market sentiment: SAR — Neutral
Source: Riyad Bank Composite PMI, via user-provided economic calendar screenshot.
Q: Did Saudi Arabia’s Composite PMI improve in June?
A: Yes. The Riyad Bank Composite PMI rose to 53.3, from 52.8 previously.
Importance Level: Medium
Mexico’s consumer confidence improved in June 2026, with Consumer Confidence rising to 43.8, up from 43.5 previously.
The non-seasonally adjusted measure also strengthened. Consumer Confidence n.s.a. rose to 43.8, compared with 43.1 previously.
The data suggests Mexican household sentiment improved modestly, which may support expectations for stable consumer spending.
Market Sentiment: MXN — Neutral to Buy; Mexican Equities — Neutral to Buy
The data is mildly positive for the Mexican peso and domestic equities because both adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted confidence measures improved.
Possible Market Effect:
Higher consumer confidence may support Mexican retail, banking, and domestic-demand sectors. If confidence continues to rise, it could improve expectations for consumption-led growth.
Q: What was Mexico’s Consumer Confidence in June 2026?
A: Mexico’s Consumer Confidence rose to 43.8, up from 43.5 previously.
Q: What was Mexico’s Consumer Confidence n.s.a. in June 2026?
A: Consumer Confidence n.s.a. rose to 43.8, compared with 43.1 previously.
Source: INEGI.
Importance Level: Medium
Brazil’s private-sector activity improved in June 2026, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 50.7, up from 49.5 previously and back above the 50.0 expansion line.
The services sector strengthened further, with the S&P Global Services PMI increasing to 51.3, compared with 50.4 previously.
The data suggests Brazil’s service economy remained resilient and helped pull broader private-sector activity back into expansion.
Market Sentiment: BRL — Neutral to Buy; Brazilian Equities — Neutral to Buy
The signal is mildly positive because both composite and services PMI improved, with the composite index returning above 50.0.
Possible Market Effect:
Stronger services momentum may support Brazilian consumer, financial, and domestic-demand stocks. It may also help offset some concern from weaker industrial production.
Q: What was Brazil’s Composite PMI in June 2026?
A: Brazil’s S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 50.7, up from 49.5 previously.
Q: What was Brazil’s Services PMI in June 2026?
A: Brazil’s S&P Global Services PMI increased to 51.3, up from 50.4 previously.
Source: S&P Global.