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India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation eased to 0.13% YoY in September, down from 0.52% in August and below expectations of 0.50%, marking the lowest level since early 2024. WPI Food inflation plunged to -5.22% from -3.06%, while Fuel inflation softened to -2.58% from -3.17%, indicating broad-based price weakness. Meanwhile, Manufacturing inflation slowed to 2.33% from 2.55%, showing mild easing in input costs.

The data underscore persistent disinflationary pressures across wholesale categories, with falling food and energy prices driving the slowdown. Historically, India’s WPI has averaged around 1–2% this year, well below the 2022 highs above 12%. The moderation provides additional comfort to policymakers as consumer inflation also trends lower, strengthening the case for stable or slightly accommodative monetary policy.

Market impact: Positive for Indian bonds and equities; weaker wholesale inflation supports a benign price outlook and potential policy flexibility from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 1.54% YoY in September, down from 2.07% in August and below expectations of 1.70%, marking the lowest reading since mid-2023. The decline was led by softer food and energy prices, alongside steady core inflation, reflecting improved supply conditions and government price controls.

Historically, inflation has averaged around 4–5% in recent years, making September’s figure notably subdued and well below the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target midpoint. This represents a sharp slowdown from the double-digit spikes seen in 2022 and indicates that price stability has largely returned.

Market impact: Bullish for Indian bonds and equities; lower inflation strengthens the case for continued policy stability and could open room for moderate monetary easing if the disinflation trend persists.

Turkey posted a current account deficit of USD 5.46 billion in August, widening from USD 1.70 billion in July and slightly above market expectations of USD 5.30 billion. The sharp deterioration reflects higher energy imports and seasonal tourism-related outflows, offsetting some improvement in goods exports.

This marks the largest monthly deficit since mid-2023 and reverses the short-lived improvement seen earlier this summer. Historically, Turkey’s current account deficit has averaged around USD 3 billion per month this year, highlighting renewed external pressures amid strong domestic demand and elevated import costs.

Market impact: Negative for the Turkish lira (TRY); the widening deficit may heighten financing concerns and limit the central bank’s flexibility in easing policy.

Brazil’s Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.20% MoM in August, marking a smaller decline than July’s –0.31%, suggesting that factory-gate deflation is moderating.

The data indicate stabilizing cost dynamics across manufacturing sectors, with weaker declines in industrial goods prices and early signs of input cost recovery, particularly in food processing and energy-related industries.

Market impact: Neutral for the BRL; easing producer deflation supports the case for a soft landing in price pressures, giving the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) more flexibility to manage its rate-cut cycle gradually.

Mexico’s industrial production fell 3.6% YoY in August, a sharper contraction than the –2.2% expected and extending July’s –2.7% decline. On a monthly basis, output slipped 0.3%, missing forecasts for a 0.4% gain.

The weakness reflects continued pressure on manufacturing and construction, as softer U.S. demand and tighter domestic financial conditions weigh on output.

Market impact: Negative for the MXN; persistent industrial weakness may dampen growth momentum and could influence Banxico to remain cautious on its policy stance.

India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $699.96 billion, only slightly below the previous $700.24 billion, keeping them near all-time highs.

The stable reserves position underscores the RBI’s strong external buffer, supported by steady capital inflows, robust remittances, and resilient export earnings despite global volatility.

Market impact: Neutral to mildly positive for the INR; high reserves strengthen confidence in India’s external stability and enhance the central bank’s ability to manage currency fluctuations.

Turkey’s retail sales rose 6.9% YoY in August, down significantly from 13.0% in July, marking the slowest annual pace since early 2024.

The sharp deceleration reflects weaker consumer spending power amid persistently high inflation, elevated interest rates, and tight credit conditions, which continue to squeeze household budgets.

Market impact: Negative for the TRY; slower retail momentum underscores cooling domestic demand, supporting expectations that economic growth may moderate in the coming months.

India’s Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) rose to 58.44 in October from 56.99 in September, marking a solid improvement and the highest level in several months.

The gain reflects robust optimism about job prospects, household finances, and investment confidence, supported by resilient growth, easing inflation, and strong festival-season demand.

Market impact: Positive for the INR; stronger sentiment signals sustained domestic momentum and reinforces India’s position as one of the most resilient major emerging economies.

South Korea’s Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) jumped to 48.96 in October from 46.39 in September — one of the strongest monthly gains this year.

The rise reflects improved optimism about household finances and job prospects, supported by moderating inflation and steady export recovery momentum.

Market impact: Positive for the KRW; stronger sentiment points to improving domestic demand and reinforces confidence in South Korea’s economic resilience heading into Q4.

South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves climbed to $422.02 billion in September from $416.29 billion in August, marking a notable increase and the highest level since May.

The gain reflects valuation effects from weaker USD performance and steady foreign inflows, helping bolster the Bank of Korea’s buffer amid ongoing global market volatility.

Market impact: Positive for the KRW; higher reserves enhance confidence in South Korea’s external position and strengthen the central bank’s capacity to stabilize the won if needed.

Brazil’s CPI rose 0.48% MoM in September (vs. 0.52% expected), rebounding from a 0.11% decline in August, while annual inflation held steady at 5.17% YoY, close to market forecasts.

The IPCA inflation index (seasonally adjusted) also climbed 0.52% MoM, marking the strongest monthly gain since early 2023, led by rising food, transport, and utility prices.

The data indicate renewed upward pressure on consumer prices, which could make the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) more cautious in continuing its rate-cut cycle.

Market impact: Mildly negative for the BRL and local bonds; sticky inflation may temper expectations for faster monetary easing.

Mexico’s headline CPI rose 0.23% MoM in September, slightly below expectations (0.27%) but higher than August’s 0.06%, while annual inflation remained steady at 3.76% YoY, near Banxico’s 3% target range.

Core inflation increased 0.33% MoM (vs. 0.32% expected) and 4.28% YoY, showing persistent underlying price pressures, particularly in services. Meanwhile, PPI rose 0.2% MoM, rebounding from a 0.4% decline, though the annual rate eased to 3.1% (from 3.3%).

The data indicate inflation stabilization but continued stickiness in core components, keeping Banxico on guard before signaling rate cuts.

Market impact: Neutral to mildly positive for the MXN; steady inflation supports currency stability, though elevated core levels may delay monetary easing.