EconoTicker

Spain’s latest 5-year Bonos auction saw yields tick higher to 2.471%, up from 2.443% previously. The increase suggests slightly weaker demand or a higher risk premium as markets reassess Eurozone rate expectations ahead of upcoming ECB commentary.

Market impact: Mildly bearish for EUR bonds; rising yields point to firmer investor caution.

Eurozone retail activity showed mixed signals in October.

Retail sales (MoM) were unchanged at 0.0%, matching expectations but slightly below the prior 0.1%, indicating stagnant monthly consumer spending.

On an annual basis, however, retail sales rose 1.5%, beating expectations of 1.4% and improving from 1.2%, suggesting a gradually recovering demand despite still-tight financial conditions.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for EUR; stronger annual growth offsets weak monthly momentum.

France’s latest 10-year OAT auction saw yields edge lower to 3.38%, down from 3.43% previously. The decline suggests slightly stronger demand for French sovereign debt, supported by easing Eurozone inflation and expectations of a gradual shift toward more accommodative ECB policy next year.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for EUR bonds; lower yields reflect improved investor appetite.

Switzerland’s labor market remained stable in November. The unemployment rate (n.s.a.) held at 2.9%, unchanged from the previous month, while the seasonally adjusted rate also stayed steady at 3.0%, matching both expectations and prior readings.

The data reflect continued resilience in Switzerland’s job market despite softer economic momentum, supported by strong business fundamentals and tight labor conditions.

Market impact: Neutral for CHF; steady labor figures offer no shift in SNB policy expectations.

Switzerland’s procure.ch Manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.7 in November, beating expectations of 48.9 and up from 48.2 previously. The improvement marks the strongest reading in months and signals that factory activity is edging closer to the 50 expansion threshold, supported by easing supply pressures and slightly firmer orders.

However, the index remains marginally in contraction territory, reflecting still-soft demand conditions both domestically and abroad.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for CHF; continued improvement supports sentiment, though not strong enough to shift SNB policy expectations.

Construction activity across major Eurozone economies improved in November, though all PMIs remained below the 50 threshold, signalling continued contraction despite easing pressures.

Italy’s Construction PMI eased to 48.2, down from 50.7, slipping back into contraction as new orders softened.

Germany’s Construction PMI rose to 45.2 from 42.8, showing a modest recovery but still reflecting deep weakness in the sector.

France’s Construction PMI increased to 43.6, up from 39.8, marking a notable improvement, although activity remains severely depressed.

Across the bloc, the Eurozone Construction PMI rose to 45.4 from 44.0, indicating slightly stabilising conditions but an ongoing broad-based downturn.

Higher interest rates, weak housing demand, and financing pressures continue to weigh on construction activity across Europe.

Market impact: Neutral for EUR; improvement is encouraging, but contractionary readings limit optimism.

Swiss inflation softened further in November.

The CPI (MoM) fell 0.2%, a larger decline than the expected –0.1%, but slightly less steep than the previous –0.3%, reflecting continued easing in consumer prices.

On a yearly basis, CPI (YoY) came in at 0.0%, below expectations of 0.1% and matching the prior 0.1%, marking a return to zero inflation as energy and goods prices remain subdued.

The data reinforce Switzerland’s position as one of the lowest-inflation economies globally, supporting expectations that the SNB will maintain a cautious policy stance.

Market impact: Mildly bearish for CHF; weaker inflation reduces pressure for further tightening.

Spain’s services sector moderated slightly in November, with the HCOB Services PMI easing to 55.6, below expectations of 56.3 and down from 56.6 previously. Despite the decline, the index remains strongly in expansion territory, reflecting solid demand, continued job creation, and resilient business activity.

The reading points to ongoing strength in Spain’s service-driven economy, even as momentum cools slightly.

Market impact: Neutral to mildly bearish for EUR; PMI remains strong but softer-than-expected.

Italy’s economy continued to show solid momentum in November, with both composite and services PMIs improving more than expected.

The HCOB Italy Composite PMI rose to 53.8, above expectations of 53.2 and slightly higher than the previous 53.1, signalling steady and broad-based growth.

The Services PMI climbed to 55.0, beating expectations of 53.9 and up from 54.0, indicating robust expansion driven by strong demand and improving business activity in the service sector.

The data highlight Italy as one of the stronger performers within the Eurozone’s service-led recovery.

Market impact: Bullish for EUR; Italy’s solid PMI performance reinforces confidence in the region’s economic outlook.

France saw a notable improvement in business activity in November.

The HCOB France Composite PMI rose to 50.4, above expectations of 49.9 and well above the previous 47.7, marking a clear return to expansion after several months of contraction.

The Services PMI increased to 51.4, beating expectations of 50.8 and jumping from 48.0, reflecting a strong rebound in demand and business activity in the services sector.

The data signal renewed momentum in France’s economy, driven primarily by the recovery in services.

Market impact: Bullish for EUR; France’s robust PMI rebound supports the Eurozone’s broader growth outlook.

Germany’s economic activity picked up slightly in November, though both headline PMIs remain weaker than earlier in the year.

The HCOB Germany Composite PMI rose to 52.4, above expectations of 52.1 but still below the previous 53.9, indicating moderate expansion driven mainly by services.

The Services PMI improved to 53.1, beating expectations of 52.7, though down from 54.6, signalling steady but softer service-sector momentum.

The data suggest Germany’s economy continues to expand modestly, supported by services' resilience, even as manufacturing remains a drag.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for EUR; better-than-expected PMIs boost sentiment, though underlying momentum remains subdued.

Eurozone business activity strengthened in November, with both composite and services PMIs improving more than expected.

The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 52.8, beating expectations of 52.4 and higher than the previous 52.5, reflecting firmer expansion across manufacturing and services.

The Services PMI climbed to 53.6, above expectations of 53.1 and up from 53.0, signalling robust demand and continued resilience in the region’s dominant services sector.

The data suggest improving economic momentum as inflation cools and business confidence stabilizes.

Market impact: Bullish for EUR; stronger PMIs support the outlook for sustained recovery and reduce recession concerns.