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Spain’s business sentiment strengthened in November, with the confidence index rising to -3.0 from -5.4 previously.

The improvement suggests that companies are slightly more optimistic about near-term economic conditions despite broader eurozone uncertainty.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for EUR; improving sentiment supports expectations of steadier business activity.

Italy’s government bond auction on Friday saw slightly lower yields across key maturities:

• 10-Year BTP: 3.44%, down from 3.46% previously.
• 5-Year BTP: 2.74%, marginally below the prior 2.75%.

The small decline in yields reflects steady investor demand and stable financing conditions for Italian sovereign debt.

Market impact: Neutral to mildly bullish for EUR; firm demand for BTPs supports broader eurozone bond sentiment.

Germany’s November labor market data showed a marginal increase in unemployment, while the overall jobless rate held steady:

• Unemployment Change: up 1K, better than expectations of 4K, but reversing the previous -2K decline.
• Unemployment Rate: unchanged at 6.3%, in line with forecasts and the prior reading.
• Total Unemployment (s.a.): steady at 2.973M.
• Unemployment (n.s.a.): eased slightly to 2.885M from 2.910M, reflecting normal seasonal patterns.

The figures suggest a stable but softening labor market, with limited deterioration as the German economy continues to face industrial weakness and subdued demand.

Market impact: Neutral for EUR; no material shift in labor conditions to influence ECB expectations.

Spain’s November inflation data showed a mixed picture, with headline CPI holding steady while core inflation moderated:

• CPI (MoM): rose 0.2%, softer than the prior 0.7%, indicating slowing monthly price momentum.
• CPI (YoY): steady at 3.0%, matching expectations and just below the previous 3.1%.
• Core CPI (YoY): eased to 2.6% from 2.5%, suggesting underlying inflation is moderating but still elevated.
• HICP (MoM): flat at 0.0%, outperforming expectations of -0.2%, but down from 0.5% previously.
• HICP (YoY): accelerated slightly to 3.1%, above expectations of 2.9%, though below 3.2% prior.

Overall, the data shows headline inflation stabilizing, while core pressures ease and harmonized measures show a mild uptick.

Market impact: Neutral to mildly bearish for EUR; stable CPI tempers ECB easing bets, but soft core inflation limits upside.

France posted stronger-than-expected growth in Q3 while price pressures continued to ease into November:

• GDP (QoQ, Q3): grew 0.5%, matching expectations and accelerating from 0.3% previously.
• GDP (YoY, Q3): rose 0.9%, in line with forecasts and above the prior 0.7%, reflecting steady economic momentum.
• HICP (MoM, Nov): fell 0.2%, a sharp reversal from the previous 0.1% increase, signaling cooling inflation at the start of the winter season.

The data paints a picture of resilient growth paired with softer inflation, strengthening the case for eventual ECB easing in 2025.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for EUR on solid GDP, but cooling HICP tempers upside.

France’s latest inflation data showed mild cooling in November:

• CPI (MoM): -0.1%, below expectations of 0.0% and down from 0.1% previously, indicating slight monthly price easing.
• CPI (YoY): edged lower to 0.9%, missing expectations of 1.0% and matching the prior reading, reflecting subdued annual inflation.
• PPI (MoM, Oct): flat at 0.0%, improving from -0.1%, suggesting stabilization in producer prices.

Overall, the figures point to muted inflation pressures in France, with both consumer and producer prices showing limited upward momentum.

Market impact: Mildly bearish for EUR; softer CPI reinforces expectations of eventual ECB policy easing.

Eurozone survey data for November showed a pickup in inflation expectations alongside uneven sentiment across key sectors:

• Consumer Inflation Expectations: rose to 23.1 from 21.9, indicating households anticipate stronger price pressures ahead.
• Selling Price Expectations: climbed to 9.9 from 7.8, reflecting firms’ increased intent to raise prices.
• Services Sentiment: improved to 5.7, beating expectations of 4.4 and up from 4.2, signaling continued resilience in the services sector.
• Industrial Sentiment: weakened to -9.3, below expectations of -8.0 and the prior -8.5, underscoring persistent weakness in manufacturing.

The data highlights a duality in the eurozone economy—services remain resilient while industry stays under pressure, with inflation expectations creeping higher.

Market impact: Mixed for EUR; higher inflation expectations offset by weakening industrial sentiment.

Italy recorded a non-EU trade surplus of €5.32B in October, a substantial increase from €2.90B previously.

The improvement reflects stronger export performance to markets outside the European Union, alongside softer import flows.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for EUR; a wider surplus supports Italy’s external position and eurozone trade dynamics.

Spain posted a current account surplus of €1.87B in September, a significant decline from the previous €5.08B.

The narrower surplus reflects weaker tourism inflows and softer export performance toward the end of Q3.

Market impact: Slightly bearish for EUR; shrinking external surplus signals softer support for the currency.

Germany’s November inflation data showed broad cooling across measures:

• CPI (MoM): -0.2%, matching expectations and reversing last month’s 0.3% rise.
• CPI (YoY): eased slightly to 2.3%, down from the expected 2.4% and equal to the prior reading.
• HICP (MoM): fell 0.5%, a steeper decline than expected -0.6%, compared with 0.3% previously.
• HICP (YoY): rose to 2.6%, above expectations of 2.4% and last month’s 2.3%, reflecting a divergence between headline and harmonized inflation trends.

Overall, the data points to mixed but generally softer domestic price pressures, with the sharp monthly drop in HICP driven partly by energy and seasonal factors.

Market impact: Neutral for EUR; cooling CPI offsets the unexpected uptick in HICP YoY.

France’s latest labor data showed a flat reading for Q3 non-farm payrolls, with employment growth coming in at 0.0%, better than expectations of -0.3% but below the prior 0.2%.

Meanwhile, the number of job seekers rose to 3.1508 million in October, up from 3.0820 million, pointing to softening labor demand despite stable payrolls.

Market impact: Slightly bearish for EUR; rising unemployment signals cooling momentum in France’s job market.

Italy’s November inflation data showed mild cooling:

• CPI (MoM): -0.2%, below expectations of -0.1%, but slightly better than -0.3% previously.
• CPI (YoY): steady at 1.2%, matching forecasts.
• HICP (MoM): -0.2%, unchanged from projections.
• HICP (YoY): eased to 1.1%, below expectations of 1.3%, signaling softer price pressures.

Overall, the figures indicate easing inflation momentum, driven by lower energy costs and subdued domestic demand.

Market impact: Neutral to mildly bearish for EUR; softer HICP may support the case for future ECB easing.