Eurozone industrial production rose 0.8% m/m in October, accelerating from 0.2% previously. On an annual basis, output increased 2.0% y/y, up from 1.2%, pointing to a clearer improvement in manufacturing momentum as the region heads into year-end.
Market impact: Supportive for EUR via better growth optics; mildly positive for European cyclicals, while stronger activity could marginally temper near-term ECB easing expectations.
Switzerland’s producer prices continued to decline in November, with PPI down 0.5% m/m (vs -0.3% previously) and -1.6% y/y (slightly less negative than -1.7% prior). The data signal ongoing pipeline disinflation, suggesting limited upstream pricing pressure and a benign inflation backdrop heading into year-end.
Market impact: Mildly negative for CHF at the margin via softer inflation optics; supportive for a more dovish SNB bias and lower rate expectations.
Germany’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased 0.3% m/m in November (unchanged from the prior reading), while the annual rate accelerated to 1.5% y/y from 1.1% previously. The pickup suggests firmer pipeline price pressures, though pass-through to consumer inflation will depend on demand conditions and pricing power across sectors.
Market impact: Mildly supportive for EUR via firmer inflation optics; could marginally reinforce a cautious ECB stance if broader price measures also firm.
Germany’s current account surplus narrowed to €14.8B in October, down from €15.8B previously. The modest decline reflects softer trade and income balances, likely influenced by weaker external demand and higher import costs.
Despite the narrowing, Germany continues to run a solid external surplus, underlining its strong net export position.
Market impact: Neutral for EUR; the smaller surplus has limited currency implications.
Spain’s inflation remained broadly stable in November. Headline CPI rose 0.2% MoM, in line with expectations but slower than the prior 0.7% increase. On an annual basis, CPI held at 3.0% YoY, matching forecasts and slightly below October’s 3.1%.
The harmonised measure showed a similar pattern. HICP was flat at 0.0% MoM, as expected, while annual HICP stood at 3.2% YoY, marginally above expectations of 3.1% and unchanged from the prior reading.
The data suggests inflation pressures remain persistent but contained, with no clear acceleration signal.
Market impact: Neutral for EUR; stable inflation readings are unlikely to alter ECB policy expectations.
France’s inflation data for November showed continued price softness. Headline CPI held at 0.9% YoY, in line with expectations and unchanged from the prior reading. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.2%, deeper than the expected -0.1% and reversing October’s increase.
The harmonised measure confirmed the trend, with HICP steady at 0.8% YoY and down 0.2% MoM. Inflation excluding tobacco also remained stable at 0.9% YoY.
Meanwhile, core CPI stayed elevated at 2.6% YoY, highlighting lingering underlying price pressures despite weak headline inflation.
Market impact: Neutral for EUR; soft headline inflation is balanced by sticky core pressures, keeping ECB expectations unchanged.
Germany’s inflation data for November showed stability on an annual basis alongside falling monthly prices.
CPI remained unchanged at 2.3% YoY, exactly in line with expectations and the prior reading. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.2%, reversing October’s 0.3% increase and confirming easing near-term price pressures.
The harmonised measure showed a similar pattern. HICP held at 2.6% YoY, while HICP declined 0.5% MoM, down from a 0.3% rise previously, pointing to broad-based monthly disinflation.
The data supports the view that inflation is stabilising near target, with short-term price momentum clearly cooling.
Market impact: Neutral for EUR; stable annual inflation and softer monthly readings reinforce a balanced ECB policy outlook.
Consumer sentiment across major Eurozone economies showed a mixed picture in December.
Italy’s PCSI rose to 45.86 from 45.53, and France saw a notable improvement to 40.46 from 38.94, reflecting firmer household confidence in both economies.
Germany’s PCSI eased slightly to 46.44, down from 46.47, signaling stagnation in consumer mood.
At the aggregate level, the Eurozone PCSI fell to 49.54, down from 51.71, indicating a broader cooling in sentiment despite country-level gains.
Market impact: Slightly negative for EUR; improvements in Italy and France are outweighed by the drop in the overall Eurozone sentiment index.
The UK’s Thomson Reuters IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) rose to 47.3 in December, up from 46.1 previously. The improvement reflects slightly firmer household confidence amid easing inflation pressures and signs of stabilization in the broader economy.
Market impact: Mildly supportive for GBP; improving sentiment offers a modest boost but does not materially shift the macro outlook.
Italy’s latest 3-year BTP auction cleared at a yield of 2.58%, up from 2.38% previously. The increase reflects higher short-term funding costs as markets reassess eurozone growth risks, fiscal pressures, and the ECB’s policy path.
Despite the uptick in yields, demand for Italian government debt remains stable, indicating continued investor appetite for mid-term sovereign bonds.
Market impact: Neutral for EUR; the yield rise signals modest repricing but no major shift in sentiment.
Italy’s unemployment rate eased to 6.1% in the latest quarterly reading, slightly below both the expected 6.3% and the previous 6.3%. The improvement points to a modest strengthening in labor-market conditions, supported by gradual job creation and stabilizing economic activity.
Market impact: Mildly supportive for EUR; a lower unemployment rate signals a firmer labor backdrop but does not materially shift broader economic concerns.
The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% in the fourth quarter, fully in line with expectations. The decision reflects the SNB’s assessment that inflation remains contained and that monetary conditions are sufficiently tight to maintain price stability without further tightening.
The central bank signaled continued readiness to act if inflationary pressures re-emerge, but the overall tone remains steady and non-directional.
Market impact: Neutral for CHF; the decision was fully priced in and offers no new policy signals.