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France’s producer prices rose in November on a monthly basis, but remained in negative territory year-on-year. PPI increased 1.1% m/m (from 0.0%), while PPI was -3.30% y/y (down from -0.80%), pointing to ongoing producer-price deflation despite the monthly rebound.

Market impact: Mixed for euro rates—monthly uptick is inflation-positive at the margin, but deeper y/y deflation supports the broader disinflation narrative; limited direct EUR impact unless mirrored across the euro area.

Germany’s GfK consumer climate deteriorated for January, printing -26.9 (vs -23.0 expected; -23.4 prior). The deeper negative reading signals softer household sentiment and suggests consumer demand may remain a drag into early 2026.

Market impact: Mildly EUR-negative and supportive for Bunds at the margin; reinforces the case for a cautious growth outlook in the euro area.

Germany’s producer prices remained soft in November. PPI was flat at 0.0% m/m (vs 0.1% expected; 0.1% prior), while PPI fell -2.3% y/y (vs -2.2% expected; -1.8% prior), indicating deeper producer-price deflation and continued easing of upstream cost pressures.

Market impact: Dovish for euro-area rates at the margin and mildly EUR-negative—supports the disinflation narrative and keeps attention on when the ECB turns more comfortable with easing.

The European Central Bank kept policy settings unchanged in December. The deposit facility rate stayed at 2.00% (in line; unchanged) and the main policy rate held at 2.15% (in line; unchanged). The marginal lending facility remains at 2.40%, reinforcing a steady-policy stance as markets look for guidance on the timing of any future easing.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for EUR and front-end euro rates if the ECB maintains a “wait-and-see” tone; biggest sensitivity is to forward guidance and how the ECB frames growth and inflation risks.

Eurozone construction output rose 0.88% m/m in October, reversing the prior -0.58% decline, suggesting a modest near-term stabilization in a sector that has been pressured by higher financing costs.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for EUR-area growth sentiment; limited FX impact unless followed by a sustained recovery across activity data.

France’s December business survey rose to 102 (vs 98 expected; 98 prior), signaling a notable improvement in sentiment versus last month and suggesting a firmer near-term activity tone.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for EUR and French cyclicals; reinforces the idea of stabilization in euro-area growth, though markets will look for confirmation from PMIs and hard output data.

Switzerland’s trade balance came in at CHF 3.841B in November, below expectations (CHF 5.320B) and down from the prior CHF 4.203B, signaling a narrower surplus for the month.

Market impact: Mildly negative for CHF at the margin; limited follow-through unless confirmed by sustained shifts in exports/imports or broader risk sentiment changes.

The ECB is widely expected to keep its key rate steady at 2% and show limited appetite for cuts, with markets watching for a possible upward tweak to growth projections. Sweden’s Riksbank is also seen holding at 1.75%, while Norway’s Norges Bank is expected to stay on hold at 4%.

Market impact: Mildly supportive for EUR/SEK/NOK if “higher-for-longer” messaging is reinforced; European front-end yields could stay firm, with the biggest moves likely driven by any shift in guidance and updated projections.

Eurozone wage dynamics softened in Q3, reinforcing the disinflation backdrop. Wages rose 3.0% y/y (down from 3.8% previously), while the Labour Cost Index increased 3.3% y/y (vs 3.5% expected; 3.9% prior). The cooling in labor costs suggests easing underlying services inflation pressure—an important input for ECB policy as it assesses the persistence of domestically generated inflation.

Market impact: Dovish for ECB pricing and supportive for euro-area bonds; modest headwind for EUR if rate-cut expectations build further, especially alongside softer activity data.

Eurozone “supercore” inflation (HICP excluding energy and food) remained unchanged in November, reinforcing a stable underlying inflation trend. The annual rate held at 2.4% y/y (in line with expectations and unchanged), while the monthly reading fell -0.4% m/m (vs -0.4% expected; prior +0.2%), pointing to a notable monthly cooling after the previous uptick.

Market impact: Mildly dovish for ECB pricing at the margin—steady 2.4% keeps the disinflation narrative intact, and the negative monthly print supports bonds; EUR impact is modest unless subsequent prints confirm a broader slowdown.

Eurozone November inflation came in softer than expected on the headline, reinforcing the disinflation narrative. Headline CPI slowed to 2.1% y/y (vs 2.2% expected; 2.2% prior), while core CPI held at 2.4% y/y (in line and unchanged). On a monthly basis, prices fell: CPI -0.3% m/m (vs -0.3% expected; prior +0.2%) and core CPI -0.5% m/m (in line and unchanged). CPI ex-tobacco also declined -0.3% m/m (vs +0.2% prior) and held 2.1% y/y. The CPI index (n.s.a.) printed 129.30 (vs 129.35 expected; 129.70 prior).

Market impact: Mildly dovish for ECB pricing—headline cooling supports easing expectations; supportive for euro-area bonds, while EUR may face a modest headwind if rate differentials reprice lower.

Germany’s December Ifo survey weakened slightly, pointing to a softer confidence backdrop. The Ifo Business Climate Index fell to 87.6 (vs 88.2 expected; 88.0 prior), driven by weaker expectations. Business Expectations declined to 89.7 (vs 90.5 expected; 90.5 prior), while the Current Assessment held at 85.6 (vs 85.7 expected; 85.6 prior), indicating the main disappointment came from the outlook rather than present conditions.

Market impact: Mildly negative for EUR and German cyclicals; supports a more cautious ECB pricing bias as confidence signals align with broader euro-area growth softness.