EconoTicker

• Core CPI (YoY, Sep): 2.3% (vs. 2.4% prior).
• CPI (YoY, Sep): 2.9% (vs. 3.1% prior, 2.7% expected).
• CPI (MoM, Sep): -0.4% (vs. -0.2% prior, 0.0% expected).
• HICP (YoY, Sep): 3.0% (vs. 3.0% prior, 2.7% expected).
• HICP (MoM, Sep): 0.1% (vs. 0.3% prior, 0.0% expected).

Market impact: Slightly supportive for ECB dovish stance, as easing core inflation and weaker CPI momentum reduce pressure for tighter policy.

Historical context: Inflation remains above 2% but shows signs of moderation, with core CPI continuing to drift lower.

• Jobseekers Total (Aug): 3,021.8K (vs. 3,033.5K prior)

Market impact: Neutral to slightly positive for EUR, as a modest drop in unemployment rolls suggests incremental labor market improvement.

Historical context: The total number of jobseekers fell to its lowest since early 2020, though progress remains slow compared to pre-pandemic labor market conditions.

• 10-Year BTP Auction: 3.62% (vs. 3.58% prior)
• 5-Year BTP Auction: 2.94% (vs. 2.80% prior)

Market impact: Slightly negative for EUR, as higher yields point to rising funding costs, though demand remained steady.

Historical context: Both 5-year and 10-year yields climbed to their highest levels in several months, reflecting broader Eurozone bond market pressures amid persistent inflation and fiscal concerns.

Business Confidence (Sep): 87.3 (vs. 87.5 expected, 87.3 prior)

Consumer Confidence (Sep): 96.8 (vs. 96.5 expected, 96.2 prior)

Market impact: Neutral for EUR, as stable business sentiment contrasts with a modest uptick in consumer confidence, pointing to mixed signals in Italy’s economy.

Historical context: Consumer confidence rose to its highest in three months, while business sentiment remained stagnant, reflecting ongoing pressures in the industrial sector despite a stronger household outlook.

• GDP (YoY, Q2): +3.1% (vs. +2.8% expected, +3.2% prior)
• GDP (QoQ, Q2): +0.8% (vs. +0.7% expected, +0.6% prior)

Market impact: Positive for EUR, as growth exceeded expectations, highlighting Spain’s resilience compared with broader Eurozone weakness.

Historical context: Q2 growth kept Spain among the fastest-growing economies in the bloc, supported by services and tourism, even as industrial activity across Europe remained soft.

• 6-Month BOT Auction: 2.044% (vs. 2.012% prior)

Market impact: Neutral to slightly positive for EUR, as higher yields reflect steady investor demand at marginally increased borrowing costs.

Historical context: The auction yield rose to its highest level in three months, aligning with broader Eurozone bond market trends as investors price in sticky inflation and cautious ECB policy.

• M3 Money Supply (YoY, Aug): +2.9% (vs. +3.3% prior, +3.4% expected)
• Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Aug): +3.0% (vs. +2.8% prior)
• Private Sector Loans (YoY, Aug): +2.5% (vs. +2.3% prior, +2.4% expected)

Market impact: Neutral for EUR, as weaker money supply growth was offset by a mild pickup in lending activity.

Historical context: August marked the slowest pace of M3 growth since 2014, highlighting tighter liquidity conditions, though corporate and private sector loans showed resilience amid ECB’s restrictive stance.

• SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3): 0.00% (vs. 0.00% prior, 0.00% expected)

Market impact: Neutral for CHF, as the decision was fully in line with expectations, signaling continued policy stability.

Historical context: The SNB has held rates at zero since mid-2024, balancing subdued inflation with concerns over economic slowdown and currency strength.

• Consumer Confidence (Sep): 87 (vs. 87 prior, 87 expected)

Market impact: Neutral for EUR, as confidence remained unchanged, signaling stable but subdued household sentiment.

Historical context: The index has hovered below its long-term average of 100 for over two years, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation, purchasing power, and economic uncertainty.

GfK Consumer Climate (Oct): -22.3 (vs. -23.3 prior, -23.5 expected)

Market impact: Neutral to slightly positive for EUR, as sentiment ticked higher but remains deeply negative.

Historical context: Although October’s reading is the least pessimistic in six months, consumer confidence in Germany remains well below pre-pandemic levels amid high inflation and weak purchasing power.

• 2-Year CTZ Auction: 2.230% (vs. 2.200% prior)

Market impact: Neutral to slightly positive for EUR, as the modest rise in yields signals steady investor demand at higher borrowing costs.

Historical context: The auction yield reached its highest level since early 2024, reflecting persistent inflation concerns and alignment with broader Eurozone bond market trends.

• Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep): 87.7 (vs. 89.3 prior, 88.9 expected)
• Business Expectations (Sep): 89.7 (vs. 92.0 prior, 91.4 expected)
• Current Assessment (Sep): 85.7 (vs. 86.5 prior, 86.4 expected)

Market impact: Negative for EUR, as the weaker readings highlight declining confidence across both current conditions and forward-looking expectations.

Historical context: September marked the lowest overall climate reading since late 2022, underscoring persistent weakness in Germany’s economy amid subdued demand and industrial headwinds.