EconoTicker

• Industrial Sales (YoY, Jul): +1.2% (prior +0.3%).
• Industrial Sales (MoM, Jul): +0.4% (prior +1.2%).

Market impact: Neutral for EUR, as annual growth strengthened but monthly sales momentum eased.

Historical context: Industrial sales posted their strongest yearly gain since early 2024, though short-term growth remains modest.

• PPI (YoY, Aug): +0.2% (prior +1.6%).
• PPI (MoM, Aug): -0.6% (prior +0.5%).
• CPI (YoY, Sep): +1.6% (expected +1.7%, prior +1.6%).
• CPI (MoM, Sep): -0.2% (expected -0.1%, prior +0.1%).
• HICP (YoY, Sep): +1.8% (expected +1.7%, prior +1.6%).
• HICP (MoM, Sep): +1.3% (prior -0.2%).

Market impact: Neutral for EUR; steady consumer inflation balances against weaker producer prices, keeping ECB policy expectations unchanged.

Historical context: Italy’s CPI remains anchored below 2%, while the sharp rebound in HICP MoM contrasts with ongoing PPI disinflation.

• Unemployment Change (Sep): +14K (expected +8K, prior -9K).
• Unemployment Rate (Sep): 6.3% (expected 6.3%, prior 6.3%).
• Unemployment (Sep): 2.976M (prior 2.957M).
• Unemployment n.s.a. (Sep): 2.955M (prior 3.025M).

Market impact: Slightly negative for EUR, as rising unemployment underscores labor market cooling, though the jobless rate remains stable.

Historical context: Jobless numbers climbed for the first time in three months, but the rate has held steady, suggesting resilience despite economic headwinds.

• KOF Leading Indicators (Sep): 98.0 (expected 97.1, prior 96.2).
• Official Reserve Assets (Aug): CHF 818.8B (prior CHF 818.4B).

Market impact: Slightly supportive for CHF, as improving forward-looking indicators suggest firmer growth momentum while reserves remain stable.

Historical context: The KOF index climbed to its highest level since early 2024, pointing to gradual stabilization in Switzerland’s economy.

• Consumer Spending (MoM, Aug): +0.1% (expected +0.3%, prior -0.6%).
• CPI (MoM, Sep): -1.0% (expected -0.9%, prior +0.4%).
• CPI (YoY, Sep): +1.2% (expected +1.3%, prior +0.9%).
• HICP (MoM, Sep): -1.1% (expected -0.9%, prior +0.5%).
• HICP (YoY, Sep): +1.1% (expected +1.3%, prior +0.8%).
• PPI (YoY, Aug): +0.1% (prior +0.5%).
• PPI (MoM, Aug): -0.2% (prior +0.5%).

Market impact: Slightly negative for EUR, as disinflation across consumer and producer prices points to softer price pressures, despite a modest recovery in spending.

Historical context: Inflation eased to the lowest since early 2021, while consumer spending rebounded modestly from July’s sharp drop.

• Import Price Index (MoM, Aug): -0.5% (expected -0.2%, prior -0.4%).
• Import Price Index (YoY, Aug): -1.5% (prior -1.4%).
• Retail Sales (YoY, Aug): +1.8% (prior +3.3%).
• Retail Sales (MoM, Aug): -0.2% (expected +0.6%, prior -0.5%).

Market impact: Slightly negative for EUR, as falling import prices and weaker retail sales point to subdued domestic demand and easing inflationary pressures.

Historical context: Retail sales remain below early-2024 highs, while import prices continue their deflationary trend, reflecting softer external cost pressures.

• 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.058% (prior 2.048%).
• 3-Month BTF Auction: 1.979% (prior 2.007%).
• 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.042% (prior 2.027%).

Market impact: Neutral for EUR, as short-term yields remain broadly stable, reflecting steady investor demand for French government bills.

Historical context: Auction yields continue to hover near recent highs, underscoring the persistence of elevated rate expectations across the Eurozone.

• Business Confidence (Sep): -5.7 (prior -6.7).

Market impact: Slightly supportive for EUR, as improving sentiment signals modest recovery momentum in Spain’s business outlook.

Historical context: Confidence remains negative but has improved from previous lows, showing gradual stabilization in Spain’s corporate sector.

• Selling Price Expectations (Sep): 6.9 (prior 6.8).
• Services Sentiment (Sep): 3.6 (expected 3.7, prior 3.8).
• Industrial Sentiment (Sep): -10.3 (expected -10.9, prior -10.2).

Market impact: Slightly negative for EUR, as weaker services sentiment offsets stability in industry and modestly higher price expectations.

Historical context: Industrial sentiment remains deeply negative, while services confidence is slipping from recent highs, underscoring fragile momentum across the Eurozone.

• Business & Consumer Survey (Sep): 95.5 (expected 95.2, prior 95.3).
• Business Climate (Sep): -0.76 (prior -0.72).
• Consumer Confidence (Sep): -14.9 (expected -14.9, prior -14.9).
• Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sep): 24.0 (prior 25.8).

Market impact: Neutral to mildly supportive for EUR, as stronger headline sentiment and easing inflation expectations balance against a softer business climate.

Historical context: Overall confidence remains well below long-term averages, underscoring persistent weakness despite marginal September gains.

• Trade Balance Non-EU (Aug): €1.78B (vs. €5.99B prior).

Market impact: Slightly negative for EUR, as the weaker surplus points to softer external demand outside the EU.

Historical context: The surplus marked a steep decline from July levels, underlining ongoing volatility in Italy’s trade flows with non-EU partners.

• Retail Sales (YoY, Aug): +4.5% (vs. +4.7% prior).

Market impact: Neutral to slightly negative for EUR, as retail momentum cooled modestly but still shows strong domestic demand.

Historical context: Retail sales remain well above pre-pandemic averages, highlighting resilient consumer spending despite broader eurozone weakness.