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Canadian business conditions weakened notably in November.

The Ivey PMI (seasonally adjusted) fell to 48.4, well below expectations of 53.6 and down from 52.4 previously, slipping into contraction territory as purchasing activity cooled.

The non-seasonally adjusted Ivey PMI also dropped sharply to 44.5, compared with 51.7 in the prior month, reinforcing signs of softer demand across sectors.

The decline points to a broad slowdown in economic momentum amid higher borrowing costs and weaker corporate spending.

Market impact: Bearish for CAD; contractionary PMI readings increase concerns about economic softness.

Canada’s total reserve assets slipped to $127.8 billion in November, slightly below the previous $128.8 billion. The modest decline reflects normal fluctuations in foreign currency holdings and valuation effects, but overall reserves remain comfortably stable and supportive of Canada’s external position.

Market impact: Neutral for CAD; small changes in reserve assets typically have limited immediate market significance.

Canada posted a solid improvement in labour productivity during the third quarter, with productivity rising 0.9%, well above expectations of 0.4% and a sharp turnaround from the –1.0% decline in the previous quarter. The rebound reflects increased output per worker as firms adjusted staffing levels and improved efficiency amid softening economic conditions.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for CAD; stronger productivity supports cost efficiency and improves Canada’s medium-term growth outlook.

Canada’s services sector weakened sharply in November, with the Services PMI dropping to 44.30, down significantly from 50.50 previously. The decline marks a return to deeper contraction as demand softens, new business inflows slow, and firms report rising cost pressures alongside cautious hiring.

The data highlights mounting stress in Canada’s service economy ahead of year-end.

Market impact: Bearish for CAD; a sharp PMI deterioration signals weakening growth momentum and increases expectations for policy easing.

Canada’s November PMI readings delivered a mixed picture. One S&P Global Manufacturing PMI measure fell to 48.4, down from 49.6, signalling a deeper contraction in factory activity as demand softened.

A separate S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reading showed improvement, rising to 52.2, above expectations of 51.9, though slightly below the previous 52.5. This indicates that pockets of the manufacturing sector remain in expansion despite broader economic headwinds.

Overall, the conflicting indicators point to an uneven manufacturing landscape, with some industries stabilising while others continue to weaken.

Market impact: Neutral for CAD; mixed PMI readings offer no clear directional signal, reflecting a patchy manufacturing environment.

Canada’s labor income data showed firmer momentum heading into Q4:

• Average Weekly Earnings (YoY): rose 3.10%, up from 2.67% previously, indicating strengthening wage growth across industries.

The pickup signals steady labor-market tightness, supporting household spending despite softer GDP trends.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for CAD; higher wage growth reduces pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut rates quickly.

Canada posted a current account deficit of CAD –9.7B in Q3, much smaller than expectations of –15.1B and significantly better than the –21.6B deficit recorded previously.

The improvement reflects a stronger goods trade balance and firmer services and investment income flows.

Market impact: Bullish for CAD; a sharply narrower deficit supports Canada’s external position and currency sentiment.

Canada’s GDP implicit price index — a key measure of economy-wide inflation — rose 0.80% in Q3, sharply higher than the prior 0.10% increase.

The pickup signals firmer price pressures across the economy despite uneven real activity momentum.

Market impact: Mildly bullish for CAD; stronger price growth may limit expectations for aggressive Bank of Canada easing.

Canada’s economic data delivered a mixed picture, with a solid rebound in Q3 followed by weakness in early Q4:

• GDP (MoM, Sep): 0.2%, above expectations (0.1%) and reversing the prior -0.3% contraction.
• GDP (QoQ, Q3): 0.6%, a clear improvement from last quarter’s -0.5%.
• GDP (YoY, Q3): 1.42%, slightly below the previous 1.60%.
• GDP Annualized (QoQ, Q3): surged 2.6%, sharply higher than last quarter’s -1.8%, signaling a meaningful rebound in activity.
• GDP (MoM, Oct advance): -0.3%, pointing to a weaker start to Q4 as higher rates and slower consumer demand weigh on growth.

The data shows Canada regained momentum in Q3, but rising economic headwinds may constrain growth into year-end.

Market impact: Mixed for CAD; strong Q3 rebound is offset by a soft October print.

Canada’s wholesale sales edged down 0.1% in October, reversing part of the previous 0.6% increase. The slight decline suggests cooling demand across distribution and supply channels as economic momentum softens toward year-end.

Market impact: Mildly negative for CAD; softer wholesale activity hints at weakening business demand.

Canada’s Manufacturing Sales fell 1.1% in October, reversing the previous month’s strong 3.3% increase. The pullback reflects weaker activity across key industrial segments, signaling softer demand conditions after a brief rebound.

Market impact: Mildly negative for CAD; the decline suggests cooling momentum in the manufacturing sector..

The Bank of Canada’s Senior Loan Officer Survey reported a reading of 0.7 for Q3, unchanged from the previous quarter. The steady figure indicates that credit conditions remained tight, with lenders maintaining cautious lending standards amid slower economic growth and elevated interest rates.

The data suggests that businesses and households continue to face a restrained credit environment, limiting borrowing capacity and investment appetite.

Market impact: Neutral for CAD; unchanged credit conditions offer no major shift in monetary or economic outlook.