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EnglishپارسیEnglishپارسیForeign investors bought C$46.62B of Canadian securities in October (vs C$21.84B expected; C$31.32B prior), marking a notable upside surprise in inflows. At the same time, Canadians were net sellers of foreign securities (-C$11.58B) after +C$21.62B previously, suggesting repatriation and a sharp reversal in outbound flows—together pointing to a materially stronger net flow backdrop for Canadian assets.
Market impact: Supportive for CAD at the margin via stronger net inflows; may help Canadian bonds and risk assets, though durability depends on global risk sentiment and rate differentials.
Canada’s manufacturing sales declined 1.0% m/m in October, a slightly smaller drop than the -1.1% expected but a sharp reversal from the prior 3.6% surge. The pullback points to softer near-term factory momentum and potentially weaker goods demand heading into year-end, even as markets balance growth signals against cooling inflation trends.
Market impact: Mildly negative for CAD via weaker activity optics; supportive for Canadian bonds and a more cautious BoC tilt if softness persists across production and labor data.
Canada’s November CPI data were broadly steady on the headline but softer under the hood. CPI rose 0.1% m/m (in line with expectations) and held at 2.2% y/y (slightly below the 2.3% forecast). Core CPI printed -0.1% m/m after a prior 0.6% jump, while core CPI y/y held at 2.9%. The BoC’s preferred core trims continued to cool, with median CPI at 2.8% y/y (down from 3.0%) and trimmed CPI at 2.8% y/y (down from 3.0%). Common CPI rose to 2.8% y/y (in line with expectations; 2.7% prior).
Market impact: Mildly dovish for BoC pricing; supportive for Canadian bonds and a modest headwind for CAD if rate-cut expectations build, though stable headline inflation limits downside.
Canada’s housing starts rose to 254.1K in November, coming in above the 250.0K consensus forecast and accelerating from 232.2K previously. The stronger print points to improved near-term construction momentum and may signal builders are responding to persistent housing supply shortages despite a still-restrictive rate backdrop.
Market impact: Mildly supportive for CAD via firmer domestic activity; modestly positive for Canada growth optics, though the BoC reaction function will remain anchored to inflation and broader demand conditions.
Canada’s new motor vehicle sales totaled 163.5K in October, down from 168.7K previously, pointing to softer demand amid higher borrowing costs.
Meanwhile, wholesale sales rose just 0.1% MoM, slightly better than expectations for a -0.1% decline but slowing sharply from the prior 0.6% increase, signaling weaker momentum in supply-chain activity.
Market impact: Neutral to slightly negative for CAD; softer auto demand and sluggish wholesale growth weigh on near-term activity.
Canada’s capacity utilization rate rose to 78.5% in Q3, improving from 77.6% previously but falling short of market expectations for 79.3%. The increase signals firmer use of productive capacity across manufacturing and industrial sectors, though momentum remains uneven.
Market impact: Neutral for CAD; improving utilization supports activity, but the miss versus expectations limits upside.
Canada’s building permits jumped 14.9% MoM in October, sharply outperforming expectations for a -1.4% decline and accelerating from the prior 5.9% increase. The strong rise points to renewed momentum in construction activity, supported by large non-residential projects and improving investment sentiment.
Market impact: Mildly supportive for CAD; stronger construction intentions signal firmer near-term economic activity.
Canada posted a trade surplus of 0.15B CAD in September, sharply reversing the prior -4.40B deficit and the earlier -6.43B shortfall.
The improvement was driven by a strong rise in exports, which climbed to 64.23B CAD from 60.40B, supported by energy, manufacturing, and agricultural shipments.
Imports, meanwhile, fell to 64.08B CAD from 66.83B, reflecting softer domestic demand and lower inbound energy volumes.
The combination of rising exports and declining imports pushed Canada back into surplus territory for the first time in several months.
Market impact: Mildly supportive for CAD; a return to surplus strengthens external fundamentals and improves currency sentiment.
میبخشد.
The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, in line with market expectations. The decision reflects the central bank’s balanced assessment of easing inflation pressures, softening economic momentum, and the need to maintain restrictive policy long enough to ensure price stability.
Market impact: Neutral for CAD; the fully priced-in decision offers no major catalyst for currency movement.
Microsoft announced plans to invest C$7.5 billion ($5.42B) over the next two years to expand its Azure data-center regions across Canada. The added cloud capacity is scheduled to come online in the second half of 2026, supporting rising demand for AI and enterprise cloud services.
This commitment is part of Microsoft’s broader C$19 billion investment plan in Canada for the 2023–2027 period, highlighting the country’s growing strategic importance in the company’s global cloud and AI infrastructure roadmap.
Market impact: Positive for Canadian tech and data-center sectors; expanded Azure capacity strengthens Canada’s cloud infrastructure ecosystem.
Canada’s Leading Index increased 0.20% MoM in November, slightly below the prior month’s 0.22% gain but still pointing to gradual stabilization in economic activity. The mild improvement suggests modest momentum heading into year-end, supported by steady labor-market conditions and resilient consumer spending.
Market impact: Neutral for CAD; steady but unspectacular growth offers limited directional influence on the currency.
Canada’s labor market delivered mixed signals in November, with strong headline job creation but a rising unemployment rate reflecting increased labour supply.
The data paints a picture of a labor market cooling at the core — full-time weakness, rising joblessness — but still producing enough jobs to suggest resilience.
Market impact: Mixed for CAD; strong headline hiring supports the currency, but rising unemployment and weak full-time growth limit upside.